15919 Walnut Shores Dr · Houston, TX 77044

$319,900

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 2,353 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 46 Days on market

Built 2010 7,217 sqft lot $136/sqft · 8% below area Est $348k · 8% under $77/mo HOA · 2% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +12.0/30.0
• ARV discount +11.2/15.0
• 1% rule +4.7/10.0
• Appreciation +4.2/10.0
• Schools +3.9/10.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• DSCR +3.6/10.0
• Rent growth +2.7/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

Welcome to this stunning one-story home in the desirable Lakeshore neighborhood! This property boasts numerous upgrades, such as a new roof, upgraded AC, fresh carpet, a new water heater, and a new fence, all situated on a peaceful cul-de-sac. The open concept living space seamlessly connects the kitchen to the living area, perfect for entertaining family and friends. With 4 bedrooms, 2 bathrooms, and 2353 square feet of living space, this home offers both comfort and style. Don't miss out on this opportunity - schedule a viewing today before it's gone!

Key facts

• 7,217 sq ft lot
• 2 garage spots
• Community pool

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $320k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-73 ($-880/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $307k (4.1% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $311k (2.8% below list).
• Recommended offer: $307k (4.1% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• Cap rate 6.0% vs local median 3.2% in Houston — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#184 in TX, #4,771 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: schools D, crime F.
• Humble ISD (urban): math 38% / reading 44% proficiency, ranked #262 of 826 in TX (top 32%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 337 active listings in the ZIP; 10 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 24d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 29,883 units permitted in Harris County in 2024 (8,621 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 39% of the median local income ($95k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-1.6%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Harris County population projected at +47% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 46 days — a 3% lower offer ($310k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 4 sale attempts since 16y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $306,941 (4.1% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 46 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 4% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.97% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.02%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.98%
• DSCR: 0.96
• GRM: 8.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $348,161
• List price: $319,900
• Delta: -8.12%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
13014 Barkley Bend Ln	0.17mi	4/2.0 (+1)	2,329 (-1%)	1mo	$330,000	$142	84
12926 Barkley Bend Ln	0.24mi	4/2.0 (+1)	2,364 (+0%)	1mo	$339,900	$144	82
16631 Polletts Cove Ct	0.52mi	3/2.5	2,396 (+2%)	2mo	$372,500	$155	69
15842 Lost Anchor Way Ln	0.35mi	4/2.5 (+1)	2,280 (-3%)	5mo	$250,000	$110	68
15826 Lost Anchor Way Ln	0.37mi	4/2.5 (+1)	2,192 (-7%)	4mo	$235,000	$107	61
16007 Angler Bend Dr	0.07mi	4/3.0 (+1)	2,674 (+14%)	5mo	$349,786	$131	60
13110 Sierra National Dr	0.53mi	4/3.0 (+1)	2,396 (+2%)	5mo	$409,999	$171	59
13002 Fernbank Forest Dr	0.74mi	4/2.0 (+1)	2,372 (+1%)	4mo	$424,000	$179	56
13018 Sierra National Dr	0.59mi	4/3.0 (+1)	2,474 (+5%)	4mo	$405,000	$164	52
15615 Tindary Meadow Ct	0.66mi	3/2.0	2,673 (+14%)	2mo	$350,000	$131	45
13202 Clover Creek Point Ln	0.70mi	4/3.5 (+1)	2,524 (+7%)	1mo	$375,000	$149	43
13303 Canton Cliff Ct Ct	0.68mi	4/3.5 (+1)	2,543 (+8%)	6mo	$349,999	$138	39

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-1.59% appreciation · 0.92% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -12.0%
• Equity multiple: 0.52×
• Total profit: $-43,255
• Equity at exit: $68,321

10-year hold

• IRR: -7.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.44×
• Total profit: $-50,114
• Equity at exit: $64,407

Cash invested: $89,572 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77044

• Home prices YoY: -0.7%
• Rents YoY: 0.9%
• Active inventory: 337
• Price-to-rent: 8.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $3,108 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,678
• Tax from tax record: −$641 /mo · $7,689/yr
• Insurance: −$133
• HOA: −$77
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$653
• Net cashflow: $-73

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,201

Max offer price $306,941

Occupancy floor 97%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $79,975
• Closing costs: $9,597
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 10 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
16614 Spirit Lake Ct Houston, TX	3.0	2.5	2374	$2,395	$1.01	24d	1	0.77mi
16807 Hemlock Grove Dr Humble, TX	4.0	3.0	2476	$3,100	$1.25	43d	1	0.81mi
12731 Arcola Valley Ct Houston, TX	4.0	3.0	2663	$2,716	$1.02	5d	1	0.84mi
15410 Rosehill Summit Ln Houston, TX	4.0	3.0	2631	$5,000	$1.90	1d	1	0.92mi
16848 W Lake Houston Pkwy Humble, TX	3.0	1.0–2.5	1128	$2,563	$2.27	1d	28	1.00mi
15614 Countesswells Dr Unit NA Humble, TX	4.0	2.5	2620	$3,350	$1.28	43d	1	1.06mi
15614 Countesswells Dr Humble, TX	4.0	2.5	2620	$3,150	$1.20	2d	1	1.06mi
13513 Northline Lake Dr Houston, TX	3.0	3.0	2034	$2,800	$1.38	43d	1	1.27mi
12643 Jamestown Crossing Ln Humble, TX	4.0	2.0	2450	$4,995	$2.04	24d	1	1.28mi
16411 Little Pine Creek Dr Humble, TX	4.0	3.0	2646	$2,976	$1.12	5d	1	1.29mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $77 · $924/yr
• Likely covers: water

Listing history 12 events

1. 2026-04-25
   price $319,900 559-char remark

   Show marketing remark (559 chars)

   Welcome to this stunning one-story home in the desirable Lakeshore neighborhood! This property boasts numerous upgrades, such as a new roof, upgraded AC, fresh carpet, a new water heater, and a new fence, all situated on a peaceful cul-de-sac. The open concept living space seamlessly connects the kitchen to the living area, perfect for entertaining family and friends. With 4 bedrooms, 2 bathrooms, and 2353 square feet of living space, this home offers both comfort and style. Don't miss out on this opportunity - schedule a viewing today before it's gone!

2. 2026-04-11
   listed $324,900 Active 559-char remark

   Show marketing remark (559 chars)

   Welcome to this stunning one-story home in the desirable Lakeshore neighborhood! This property boasts numerous upgrades, such as a new roof, upgraded AC, fresh carpet, a new water heater, and a new fence, all situated on a peaceful cul-de-sac. The open concept living space seamlessly connects the kitchen to the living area, perfect for entertaining family and friends. With 4 bedrooms, 2 bathrooms, and 2353 square feet of living space, this home offers both comfort and style. Don't miss out on this opportunity - schedule a viewing today before it's gone!

3. 2013-09-03
   soldstatus
4. 2013-08-29
   soldstatus Sold 402-char remark

   Show marketing remark (402 chars)

   BETTER THAN NEW--THIS GORGEOUS 1 STORY HOME WONT LAST! NEW WOOD FLOORS INSTALLED 6-15-2013. GOURMET ISLAND KITCHEN W/ UPGRADED GRANITE AND LOADS OF CABINET SPACE-CERAMIC TILE-EXTENDED ENTRY-4 BEDROOMS-FORMAL LIVING AND FORMAL DINING ROOM COULD BE FLEX ROOM OR GAMEROOM-VERY OPEN CONCEPT THAT APPEALS TO ALL BUYERS-ENERYGY EFFICIENT EXTRAS AND 2 FULL BATHS-EXCELLENT HUMBLE SCHOOLS AND CLOSE TO BELTWAY-

5. 2013-08-03
   status Pending 402-char remark

   Show marketing remark (402 chars)

   BETTER THAN NEW--THIS GORGEOUS 1 STORY HOME WONT LAST! NEW WOOD FLOORS INSTALLED 6-15-2013. GOURMET ISLAND KITCHEN W/ UPGRADED GRANITE AND LOADS OF CABINET SPACE-CERAMIC TILE-EXTENDED ENTRY-4 BEDROOMS-FORMAL LIVING AND FORMAL DINING ROOM COULD BE FLEX ROOM OR GAMEROOM-VERY OPEN CONCEPT THAT APPEALS TO ALL BUYERS-ENERYGY EFFICIENT EXTRAS AND 2 FULL BATHS-EXCELLENT HUMBLE SCHOOLS AND CLOSE TO BELTWAY-

6. 2013-07-26
   status Option Pending 402-char remark

   Show marketing remark (402 chars)

   BETTER THAN NEW--THIS GORGEOUS 1 STORY HOME WONT LAST! NEW WOOD FLOORS INSTALLED 6-15-2013. GOURMET ISLAND KITCHEN W/ UPGRADED GRANITE AND LOADS OF CABINET SPACE-CERAMIC TILE-EXTENDED ENTRY-4 BEDROOMS-FORMAL LIVING AND FORMAL DINING ROOM COULD BE FLEX ROOM OR GAMEROOM-VERY OPEN CONCEPT THAT APPEALS TO ALL BUYERS-ENERYGY EFFICIENT EXTRAS AND 2 FULL BATHS-EXCELLENT HUMBLE SCHOOLS AND CLOSE TO BELTWAY-

7. 2013-06-20
   listed $199,800 Active 402-char remark

   Show marketing remark (402 chars)

   BETTER THAN NEW--THIS GORGEOUS 1 STORY HOME WONT LAST! NEW WOOD FLOORS INSTALLED 6-15-2013. GOURMET ISLAND KITCHEN W/ UPGRADED GRANITE AND LOADS OF CABINET SPACE-CERAMIC TILE-EXTENDED ENTRY-4 BEDROOMS-FORMAL LIVING AND FORMAL DINING ROOM COULD BE FLEX ROOM OR GAMEROOM-VERY OPEN CONCEPT THAT APPEALS TO ALL BUYERS-ENERYGY EFFICIENT EXTRAS AND 2 FULL BATHS-EXCELLENT HUMBLE SCHOOLS AND CLOSE TO BELTWAY-

8. 2012-05-22
   historical
9. 2011-12-20
   listed $169,900
10. 2011-07-21
    soldstatus
11. 2011-07-13
    historical
12. 2010-09-02
    listed $224,642

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $7,689 · $641/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $7,689 · $641/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥111°F today · 24 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $37,295
• − Mortgage interest: −$17,919
• − Property taxes: −$7,689
• − Insurance: −$1,600
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,984
• − Management: −$2,984
• − HOA: −$924
• − Depreciation: −$9,306
• Taxable loss: −$6,110
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,466
• After-tax cash flow: $586/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Humble ISD
• NCES district ID: 4823910
• Math proficiency: 38% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 44% ▼ -7.00%
• Median HH income: $83,946
• Composite: 38.55/100
• National rank: #4171
• State rank: #262 of 826 in TX

Livability — Houston

• Score: 74/100
• State rank: #184
• US rank: #4771

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety A- User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Houston, TX
• County: Harris County · 4,702,590 people
• City population: 3,226,434
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 58,347
• Household income: $95,000
• Rent vs Own: 24.1% rent · 75.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 1332.0

Population outlook (Harris County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 5,571,493 people
• By 2030: 6,089,821 · +9.3%
• By 2040: 7,142,806 · +28.2%
• By 2050: 8,185,864 · +46.9%
• By 2075: 10,574,329 · +89.8%
• By 2100: 12,109,958 · +117.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.66)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 44% Black 32% White 19% Two or more races 18% Native American 2% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 36%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 1% Romanian 1% Iranian 1%
• Foreign-born: 18% · Canada
• Languages at home: 61% English-only · Spanish 35% French/Haitian/Cajun 1% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Harris

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+5.5) · D 52.0% · R 46.4% · Other 1.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: +3.9pp toward D · 2008: 1.6pp · 2024: 5.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+5.5 2020: D+13.3 2016: D+12.4 2012: D+0.1 2008: D+1.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -1.59%
• Current HPI: 215.5736
• Rent YoY: ▲ 0.92%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+42.4% since first listed

12 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-25 Price Changed $319,900 HARMLS
• 2026-04-11 Listed $324,900 HARMLS
• 2013-09-03 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2013-08-29 Sold (MLS) — HARMLS
• 2013-08-03 Pending — HARMLS
• 2013-07-26 Pending — HARMLS
• 2013-06-20 Listed $199,800 HARMLS
• 2012-05-22 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2011-12-20 Listed $169,900 HARMLS
• 2011-07-21 Sold (MLS) — HARMLS
• 2011-07-13 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2010-09-02 Listed $224,642 HARMLS

Property tax history

+19.5%/yr

Latest (2025): $7,689 · -0.8% YoY. Source: county tax records.