1412 Amanda Dr #16 · Pinetop-Lakeside, AZ 85929

$130,000

1 bd · 1.0 ba · 568 sqft · SingleFamily · 114 Days on market

Built 2018 Good condition $229/sqft · 34% below area Est $197k · 34% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +22.0/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +7.0/10.0
• 1% rule +5.8/10.0
• Condition / age +3.8/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.2/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Cozy, well maintained Park model, Arizona room and carport, all one level living. It will make a sweet full time home, vacation rental or a summer get away from the heat. Full size appliances, Sky lights, on demand hot water, brand new mini split, outside storage. Furniture can be negotiated. Very large fenced back yard. Excellent location near restaurants, shopping and hospital. Ski resort 45 min. Cassino 15 min. Many activities to attend. Fishing, Hiking, Biking, Festivals, Live music. Lots of everything you love to see and do. 4 seasons. Wonderful home for you if you're downsizing.

Key facts

• On demand hot water
• Casino 15 min
• Full size appliances

Tags

• ARIZONA ROOM
• FULL SIZE APPLIANCES
• ON DEMAND HOT WATER
• FENCED LARGE BACK YARD
• SKI RESORT 45 MIN
• CASINO 15 MIN

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 1-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $130k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $208 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $130k).
• Recommended offer: $118k (9.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 8.2% vs local median 1.9% in Pinetop-Lakeside — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade C — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Blue Ridge Unified School District No. 32 (4397) (town): math 21% / reading 29% proficiency, ranked #139 of 249 in AZ (top 56%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Market conditions: 257 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 485 units permitted in Navajo County in 2024 (11 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $899 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Navajo County population projected at -16% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 114 days — a 9% lower offer ($118k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wildfire risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $118,300 (9.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 114 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.08% ✓
• Cap rate: 8.21%
• Cash-on-cash: 6.84%
• DSCR: 1.30
• GRM: 7.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $197,171
• List price: $130,000
• Delta: -34.07%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 2 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 2 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
943 Backwoods Trl	0.31mi	2/1.0 (+1)	600 (+6%)	8mo	$279,000	$465	64
1961 W Gardner Ln	0.50mi	1/1.0	651 (+15%)	7mo	$115,000	$177	46

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -5.8%
• Equity multiple: 0.79×
• Total profit: $-7,822
• Equity at exit: $19,383

10-year hold

• IRR: 3.9%
• Equity multiple: 1.28×
• Total profit: $10,300
• Equity at exit: $11,240

Cash invested: $36,400 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Arizona: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

5-day pay-or-quit; AZ courts known for speed; no state rent control; cities preempted by state law.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 85929

• Home prices YoY: -16.9%
• Active inventory: 257
• Price-to-rent: 7.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,400 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$682
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$162 /mo · $1,950/yr
• Insurance: −$54
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$294
• Net cashflow: $208

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,137

Max offer price $130,000

Occupancy floor 80%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $32,500
• Closing costs: $3,900
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1412 Amanda Dr Unit 9 Lakeside, AZ	1.0	1.0	399	$1,400	$3.51	43d	1	0.01mi

Listing history 16 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $130,000 Active 114 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $130,000 Active 113 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $130,000 Active 112 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $130,000 Active 111 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $130,000 Active 110 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $130,000 Active 108 DOM
7. 2026-06-12
   days on market $130,000 Active 107 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $130,000 Active 104 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $130,000 Active 103 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $130,000 Active 102 DOM
11. 2026-06-04
    days on market $130,000 Active 98 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $130,000 Active 97 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $130,000 Active 96 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $130,000 Active 95 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $130,000 Active 94 DOM
16. 2026-02-25
    listed $130,000 Active 600-char remark

    Show marketing remark (600 chars)

    Cozy, well maintained Park model, Arizona room and carport, all one level living. It will make a sweet full time home, vacation rental or a summer get away from the heat. Full size appliances, Sky lights, on demand hot water, brand new mini split, outside storage. Furniture can be negotiated. Very large fenced back yard. Excellent location near restaurants, shopping and hospital. Ski resort 45 min. Cassino 15 min. Many activities to attend. Fishing, Hiking, Biking, Festivals, Live music. Lots of everything you love to see and do. 4 seasons. Wonderful home for you if you're downsizing.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 4/10 Moderate FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 22% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 8/10 Severe
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 8 d/yr ≥87°F today · 22 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $16,800
• − Mortgage interest: −$7,282
• − Property taxes: −$1,950
• − Insurance: −$650
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,344
• − Management: −$1,344
• − Depreciation: −$3,782
• Taxable income: $448
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$108
• After-tax cash flow: $2,384/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Good 75/100 Cosmetic rehab

This Park model home is in good condition with a good layout and modern appliances. It is ready for a new owner and could benefit from some exterior painting and gutter cleaning to enhance its curb appeal and rental value.

Value-add opportunities

• Resale Paint exterior — Fresh paint can enhance curb appeal and home value.
• Rental Clean gutters — Clean gutters improve drainage and reduce maintenance costs for tenants.

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Resale Paint exterior — Fresh paint can enhance curb appeal and home value. ↑
• Rental Clean gutters — Clean gutters improve drainage and reduce maintenance costs for tenants. ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Blue Ridge Unified School District No. 32 (4397)
• NCES district ID: 0406580
• Math proficiency: 21% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 29% ▼ -13.00%
• Median HH income: $49,406
• Composite: 21.97/100
• National rank: #8213
• State rank: #139 of 249 in AZ

Livability — Pinetop-Lakeside

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 7,280

Population outlook (Navajo County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 105,760 people
• By 2030: 103,301 · -2.3%
• By 2040: 97,070 · -8.2%
• By 2050: 88,850 · -16.0%
• By 2075: 65,180 · -38.4%
• By 2100: 37,281 · -64.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (75%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 75% Hispanic / Latino 13% Two or more races 11% Native American 6% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 12%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 2% Lithuanian 2% Portuguese 2%
• Foreign-born: 5% · Canada, China
• Languages at home: 87% English-only · Spanish 8% Chinese 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Navajo

• 2024 margin: R (+17.2) · D 40.9% · R 58.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: -5.5pp toward R · 2008: -11.7pp · 2024: -17.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+17.2 2020: R+8.2 2016: R+7.9 2012: R+8.4 2008: R+11.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -78.03%
• Current HPI: 383.9587
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 4.54%
• F500 in state: 20

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in AZ)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	2	$13B
▸Mining / Metals	1	$23B
▸Environmental Services	1	$16B
▸Metals / Steel	1	$14B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$9B
▸Homebuilding	1	$8B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-02-25 Listed $130,000 WMMLS