Plan 1477 Plan · Hitchcock, TX 77563

$220,995

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,477 sqft · SingleFamily · 390 Days on market

Fair condition

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Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +7.6/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• Schools +2.6/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +2.2/10.0
• Condition / age +2.2/5.0
• DSCR +1.7/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

* Granite kitchen countertops * Gas range * Kitchen USB charging receptacle * Kitchen breakfast bar * Smart thermostat * Low-E windows * 5-panel interior doors * Open floor plan * Spacious great room * Dedicated laundry room * WaterSense® labeled faucets * ENERGY STAR® certified home * Close to ocean * Community park * Commuter-friendly location * Near entertainment and leisure * Volleyball court * Walking paths

Key facts

• Low-e windows
• Smart thermostat
• Gas range

Tags

• GRANITE KITCHEN COUNTERTOPS
• GAS RANGE
• KITCHEN BREAKFAST BAR
• SMART THERMOSTAT
• LOW-E WINDOWS
• 6-PANEL INTERIOR DOORS

🏗️ New construction. The $220,995 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $257,016.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $221k. Condition is rated fair.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-310 ($-4k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $212k (4.0% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $186k (16.0% below list).
• Recommended offer: $186k (16.0% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 4.8% vs local median 1.0% in Hitchcock — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 67/100 on livability (#560 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime C-, employment D+, amenities F.
• Hitchcock ISD (suburban): math 28% / reading 31% proficiency, ranked #628 of 826 in TX (top 76%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 72% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Hitchcock Pri (453 students, 85% FRL); Crosby Middle (math 25% / reading 33%, grade F, #1,103 of 1,662 statewide, top 67%, 410 students, 84% FRL); Hitchcock H S (math 47% / reading 47%, grade D-, #591 of 1,632 statewide, top 38%, 470 students, 77% FRL).
• Market conditions: 302 active listings in the ZIP; 4 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 22d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 3,258 units permitted in Galveston County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Galveston County population projected at +43% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 390 days — a 12% lower offer ($194k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $185,638 (16.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 390 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 16% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Have any recent inspections been done? Can we get a copy of the seller's disclosures and any deferred-maintenance estimates?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.72% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.85%
• Cash-on-cash: -5.16%
• DSCR: 0.77
• GRM: 11.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $257,016
• List price: $220,995
• Delta: -14.01%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
1109 Black Rail St	0.33mi	3/2.0	1,526 (+3%)	1mo	$245,000	$161	79
996 Camellia Hills Ln	0.33mi	3/2.0	1,526 (+3%)	1mo	$239,000	$157	78
5514 Blackbird Ln	0.11mi	3/2.0	1,655 (+12%)	2mo	$259,995	$157	73
1233 Sacred Light Ln	0.61mi	3/2.0	1,491 (+1%)	0mo	$252,990	$170	70
1305 Blue Moon Ln	0.61mi	3/2.0	1,491 (+1%)	1mo	$257,990	$173	69
5515 Blackbird Ln	0.13mi	3/2.0	1,271 (-14%)	3mo	$242,995	$191	68
805 Apple Blossom Dr	0.63mi	3/2.0	1,501 (+2%)	1mo	$269,990	$180	67
1106 Radiant Ave	0.54mi	3/2.0	1,548 (+5%)	1mo	$265,990	$172	66
26259 Astral Way	0.49mi	3/2.0	1,615 (+9%)	2mo	$274,990	$170	60
914 Temple Cir	0.41mi	3/2.0	1,671 (+13%)	1mo	$218,000	$130	58
634 Cherry Tree Dr	0.74mi	3/2.0	1,566 (+6%)	2mo	$260,960	$167	54
608 Burlina Rd	0.68mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,676 (+14%)	2mo	$268,990	$160	39

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -25.1%
• Equity multiple: 0.15×
• Total profit: $-61,340
• Equity at exit: $38,322

10-year hold

• IRR: -21.0%
• Equity multiple: -0.09×
• Total profit: $-78,694
• Equity at exit: $22,222

Cash invested: $71,964 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77563

• Active inventory: 302
• Price-to-rent: 9.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,856 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,348
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$321 /mo · $3,855/yr
• Insurance: −$107
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$390
• Net cashflow: $-310

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,248

Max offer price $212,211

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-132	-5% $-221	+0% $-310	+5% $-398	+10% $-487
Rent	-10% $-456	-5% $-383	+0% $-310	+5% $-236	+10% $-163
Rate	-1.0pp $-180	-0.5pp $-244	base $-310	+0.5pp $-376	+1.0pp $-444

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $64,254
• Closing costs: $7,710
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 4 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
7440 Highway 6 Hitchcock, TX	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	866	$1,428	$1.65	0d	11	1.26mi
7446 Highway 6 Hitchcock, TX	3.0	2.0	1035	$1,150	$1.11	45d	1	1.33mi
453 Maple Bend Ln La Marque, TX	3.0	2.0	1860	$2,071	$1.11	22d	1	1.35mi
14403 Daniel Shores Dr La Marque, TX	4.0	3.0–3.5	1872	$2,600	$1.39	0d	12	1.39mi

Listing history 20 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $220,995 Active 390 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $220,995 Active 387 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $220,995 Active 386 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $220,995 Active 385 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $220,995 Active 384 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $220,995 Active 382 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $220,995 Active 381 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $220,995 Active 378 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $220,995 Active 377 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $220,995 Active 376 DOM
11. 2026-06-04
    days on market $220,995 Active 373 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $220,995 Active 372 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $220,995 Active 371 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $220,995 Active 370 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $220,995 Active 369 DOM
16. 2026-01-22
    price $220,995 458-char remark

    Show marketing remark (458 chars)

    * Granite kitchen countertops * Gas range * Kitchen USB charging receptacle * Kitchen breakfast bar * Smart thermostat * Low-E windows * 5-panel interior doors * Open floor plan * Spacious great room * Dedicated laundry room * WaterSense® labeled faucets * ENERGY STAR® certified home * Close to ocean * Community park * Commuter-friendly location * Near entertainment and leisure * Volleyball court * Walking paths

17. 2025-11-18
    price $225,995 458-char remark

    Show marketing remark (458 chars)

    * Granite kitchen countertops * Gas range * Kitchen USB charging receptacle * Kitchen breakfast bar * Smart thermostat * Low-E windows * 5-panel interior doors * Open floor plan * Spacious great room * Dedicated laundry room * WaterSense® labeled faucets * ENERGY STAR® certified home * Close to ocean * Community park * Commuter-friendly location * Near entertainment and leisure * Volleyball court * Walking paths

18. 2025-11-10
    price $221,995 458-char remark

    Show marketing remark (458 chars)

    * Granite kitchen countertops * Gas range * Kitchen USB charging receptacle * Kitchen breakfast bar * Smart thermostat * Low-E windows * 5-panel interior doors * Open floor plan * Spacious great room * Dedicated laundry room * WaterSense® labeled faucets * ENERGY STAR® certified home * Close to ocean * Community park * Commuter-friendly location * Near entertainment and leisure * Volleyball court * Walking paths

19. 2025-06-14
    price $219,995 458-char remark

    Show marketing remark (458 chars)

    * Granite kitchen countertops * Gas range * Kitchen USB charging receptacle * Kitchen breakfast bar * Smart thermostat * Low-E windows * 5-panel interior doors * Open floor plan * Spacious great room * Dedicated laundry room * WaterSense® labeled faucets * ENERGY STAR® certified home * Close to ocean * Community park * Commuter-friendly location * Near entertainment and leisure * Volleyball court * Walking paths

20. 2025-05-28
    listed $217,995 Active 458-char remark

    Show marketing remark (458 chars)

    * Granite kitchen countertops * Gas range * Kitchen USB charging receptacle * Kitchen breakfast bar * Smart thermostat * Low-E windows * 5-panel interior doors * Open floor plan * Spacious great room * Dedicated laundry room * WaterSense® labeled faucets * ENERGY STAR® certified home * Close to ocean * Community park * Commuter-friendly location * Near entertainment and leisure * Volleyball court * Walking paths

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $22,277
• − Mortgage interest: −$14,397
• − Property taxes: −$3,855
• − Insurance: −$1,285
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,782
• − Management: −$1,782
• − Depreciation: −$7,477
• Taxable loss: −$8,302
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,992
• After-tax cash flow: $-1,723/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 1 photo

Fair 45/100 Moderate rehab

The home is in good condition with good systems and features, but some landscaping and exterior painting are needed to enhance its curb appeal and value.

Repairs flagged

• Minor Landscaping — Some overgrown grass

Value-add opportunities

• Both Landscaping and curb appeal — Enhances curb appeal and could attract more buyers
• Both Paint exterior — Improves home's appearance and could increase its value

Renovation cost estimate screening

Repair item	Severity	Est. cost
Landscaping · Some overgrown grass	Minor	$500–3,000
Total estimated repair cost · 1 items		$500–3,000

Value-add ROI direction

• Both Landscaping and curb appeal — Enhances curb appeal and could attract more buyers ↑
• Both Paint exterior — Improves home's appearance and could increase its value ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Hitchcock ISD
• NCES district ID: 4823310
• Math proficiency: 28% ▼ -2.00%
• Reading proficiency: 31% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $47,041
• Composite: 25.5/100
• National rank: #7439
• State rank: #628 of 826 in TX

Livability — Hitchcock

• Score: 67/100
• State rank: #560
• US rank: #10752

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime C- Employment D+ Housing A+ Health & safety C User ratings B+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Hitchcock, TX
• County: Galveston County · 357,330 people
• City population: 9,955
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 9,955
• Household income: $75,806
• Rent vs Own: 26.9% rent · 73.1% own
• Severe rent burden: 317.0

Population outlook (Galveston County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 390,640 people
• By 2030: 425,226 · +8.9%
• By 2040: 493,765 · +26.4%
• By 2050: 559,698 · +43.3%
• By 2075: 719,260 · +84.1%
• By 2100: 819,628 · +109.8%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.66)
• Race & ethnicity: White 49% Hispanic / Latino 25% Black 21% Two or more races 14%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 24%
• Common ancestry: Italian 4% Slovak 2% Serbian 2%
• Foreign-born: 7% · Canada, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 83% English-only · Spanish 16%

Political lean MEDSL · Galveston

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+27.4) · D 35.7% · R 63.1% · Other 1.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -7.9pp toward R · 2008: -19.5pp · 2024: -27.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+27.4 2020: R+22.6 2016: R+22.6 2012: R+26.9 2008: R+19.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -145.04%
• Current HPI: 261.4711
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+1.4% since first listed

5 events — show timeline

• 2026-01-22 Price Changed $220,995 Zillow
• 2025-11-18 Price Changed $225,995 Zillow
• 2025-11-10 Price Changed $221,995 Zillow
• 2025-06-14 Price Changed $219,995 Zillow
• 2025-05-28 Listed $217,995 Zillow