6447 Holiday Valley Rd Unit 528-5 · Ellicottville, NY 14731

$55,000

1 bd · 1.0 ba · 684 sqft · Condo · 499 Days on market

Built 2009 Poor condition $80/sqft · 71% below area $180/mo HOA · 22% of rent ↓ 15% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +21.2/30.0
• 1% rule +9.7/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• DSCR +6.7/10.0
• Schools +5.5/10.0
• Livability +3.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +1.0/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Fifth floor one bedroom sleeping 6 suite available for Fractional Ownership. Tamarack ownership gives you 10-11 weeks per year, or about 1 week per month on a rotating basis so in a 5-6 year cycle you get all weeks. Ownership allows you to use your week, rent your week, or a combination of both. Amenities include year 'round access to the heated indoor/outdoor pool, hot tubs, sauna, fitness center, private locker room, private owner lounge, and valet parking. Underground parking is available when you are lodging overnight.

Key facts

• Fitness center
• Private locker room
• Private owner lounge

Tags

• HEATED INDOOR OUTDOOR POOL
• HOT TUBS
• SAUNA
• FITNESS CENTER
• PRIVATE LOCKER ROOM
• PRIVATE OWNER LOUNGE

🏷️ Possibly a rental listed for sale. The $55,000 price doesn't fit this home's estimated sale value (~$189,075) and the remarks read like a rental — treat the cards below with caution.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 1-bed/1.0-bath condo listed at $55k. Condition is rated poor.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $13 ($153/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($809 rent vs $55k).
• Recommended offer: $48k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 8.0% vs local median 0.6% in Ellicottville — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 70/100 on livability (#422 in NY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, housing A+, employment A-; Watch: cost of living D+, amenities F, commute F.
• Ellicottville Central School District (rural): math 60% / reading 70% proficiency, ranked #179 of 590 in NY (top 30%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: 124 active listings in the ZIP; 128 units permitted in Cattaraugus County in 2024 (21 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $380 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Cattaraugus County population projected at -28% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 499 days — a 12% lower offer ($48k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 5y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $10k (15%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $66/mo; HOA is 22% of rent.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe flood risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $48,400 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 499 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Have any recent inspections been done? Can we get a copy of the seller's disclosures and any deferred-maintenance estimates?
3. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
4. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
5. Any open or pending special assessments — roof, HVAC, plumbing, elevator, façade? What's the per-unit balance and payoff schedule, and is the seller paying it off at close or rolling it to the buyer?
6. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
7. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
8. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
9. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
10. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
11. How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.47% ✓
• Cap rate: 8.02%
• Cash-on-cash: 6.17%
• DSCR: 1.27
• GRM: 5.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $189,075
• List price: $55,000
• Delta: -70.91%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -14.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.48×
• Total profit: $-7,939
• Equity at exit: $8,201

10-year hold

• IRR: -5.1%
• Equity multiple: 0.66×
• Total profit: $-5,205
• Equity at exit: $4,755

Cash invested: $15,400 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 14731

• Home prices YoY: -13.3%
• Active inventory: 124
• Price-to-rent: 5.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $809 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$288
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$69 /mo · $825/yr
• Insurance: −$23
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$66 /mo · $798/yr
• HOA: −$180
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$170
• Net cashflow: $13

Break-even live

Break-even rent $793

Max offer price $55,000

Occupancy floor 93%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $13,750
• Closing costs: $1,650
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

HOA detail condo

• Monthly dues: $180 · $2,160/yr
• Likely covers: poolgym
• Assessments: None detected in remarks — confirm with the listing agent.

Listing history 20 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $55,000 Active 499 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $55,000 Active 498 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $55,000 Active 497 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $55,000 Active 496 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $55,000 Active 494 DOM
6. 2026-06-12
   days on market $55,000 Active 493 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $55,000 Active 490 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $55,000 Active 489 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $55,000 Active 488 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $55,000 Active 487 DOM
11. 2026-06-04
    days on market $55,000 Active 484 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $55,000 Active 483 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $55,000 Active 482 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $55,000 Active 481 DOM
15. 2026-02-14
    price $55,000 528-char remark

    Show marketing remark (528 chars)

    Fifth floor one bedroom sleeping 6 suite available for Fractional Ownership. Tamarack ownership gives you 10-11 weeks per year, or about 1 week per month on a rotating basis so in a 5-6 year cycle you get all weeks. Ownership allows you to use your week, rent your week, or a combination of both. Amenities include year 'round access to the heated indoor/outdoor pool, hot tubs, sauna, fitness center, private locker room, private owner lounge, and valet parking. Underground parking is available when you are lodging overnight.

16. 2025-02-04
    listed $65,000 Active 528-char remark

    Show marketing remark (528 chars)

    Fifth floor one bedroom sleeping 6 suite available for Fractional Ownership. Tamarack ownership gives you 10-11 weeks per year, or about 1 week per month on a rotating basis so in a 5-6 year cycle you get all weeks. Ownership allows you to use your week, rent your week, or a combination of both. Amenities include year 'round access to the heated indoor/outdoor pool, hot tubs, sauna, fitness center, private locker room, private owner lounge, and valet parking. Underground parking is available when you are lodging overnight.

17. 2022-04-29
    soldstatus $61,000 Closed Sale or Rented 419-char remark

    Show marketing remark (419 chars)

    Wonderful 5th floor one bedroom type "D" layout. Fractional ownership here at Tamarack will give you 10-11 weeks per year, and in a five year cycle the weeks rotate so you end up getting all holiday and festival weeks. Ownership amenities include valet parking, underground parking while lodging overnight, year 'round pool and hot tub access, fitness center, private locker room, ski check, and so much more!

18. 2022-02-15
    status Pending Sale 419-char remark

    Show marketing remark (419 chars)

    Wonderful 5th floor one bedroom type "D" layout. Fractional ownership here at Tamarack will give you 10-11 weeks per year, and in a five year cycle the weeks rotate so you end up getting all holiday and festival weeks. Ownership amenities include valet parking, underground parking while lodging overnight, year 'round pool and hot tub access, fitness center, private locker room, ski check, and so much more!

19. 2022-01-25
    status Under Contract- Do Not Show 419-char remark

    Show marketing remark (419 chars)

    Wonderful 5th floor one bedroom type "D" layout. Fractional ownership here at Tamarack will give you 10-11 weeks per year, and in a five year cycle the weeks rotate so you end up getting all holiday and festival weeks. Ownership amenities include valet parking, underground parking while lodging overnight, year 'round pool and hot tub access, fitness center, private locker room, ski check, and so much more!

20. 2021-08-17
    listed $65,000 Active 419-char remark

    Show marketing remark (419 chars)

    Wonderful 5th floor one bedroom type "D" layout. Fractional ownership here at Tamarack will give you 10-11 weeks per year, and in a five year cycle the weeks rotate so you end up getting all holiday and festival weeks. Ownership amenities include valet parking, underground parking while lodging overnight, year 'round pool and hot tub access, fitness center, private locker room, ski check, and so much more!

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 9/10 Extreme FEMA zone X · 99% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 1/10 Low 8 d/yr ≥89°F today · 18 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $9,710
• − Mortgage interest: −$3,081
• − Property taxes: −$825
• − Insurance: −$1,072
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$777
• − Management: −$777
• − HOA: −$2,160
• − Depreciation: −$1,600
• Taxable loss: −$582
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$140
• After-tax cash flow: $292/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 2 photos

Poor 20/100 Extensive rehab

This fifth-floor condo requires extensive repairs and maintenance, including snow removal, roof inspection, exterior siding repair, and window repair or replacement. Immediate action is needed to improve the property's condition and value.

Repairs flagged

• Major roof — Snow-covered and potentially damaged
• Major exterior siding — Visible wear and tear
• Major windows — No visible photos, but snow suggests potential damage

Value-add opportunities

• Both Snow removal — Improves accessibility and appearance
• Both Roof inspection and repair — Critical for safety and property value
• Both Exterior siding repair — Enhances curb appeal and property value
• Both Window repair or replacement — Improves property value and energy efficiency

Renovation cost estimate screening

Repair item	Severity	Est. cost
roof · Snow-covered and potentially damaged	Major	$15,000–50,000
exterior siding · Visible wear and tear	Major	$15,000–50,000
windows · No visible photos, but snow suggests potential damage	Major	$15,000–50,000
Total estimated repair cost · 3 items		$45,000–150,000

Value-add ROI direction

• Both Snow removal — Improves accessibility and appearance ↑
• Both Roof inspection and repair — Critical for safety and property value ↑
• Both Exterior siding repair — Enhances curb appeal and property value ↑
• Both Window repair or replacement — Improves property value and energy efficiency ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Ellicottville Central School District
• NCES district ID: 3610530
• Math proficiency: 60% ▼ -12.00%
• Reading proficiency: 70% ▲ 8.00%
• Median HH income: $51,528
• Composite: 55.33/100
• National rank: #1258
• State rank: #179 of 590 in NY

Livability — Ellicottville

• Score: 70/100
• State rank: #422
• US rank: #7378

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living D+ Crime A+ Employment A- Housing A+ Health & safety D- User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 1,198

Population outlook (Cattaraugus County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 71,623 people
• By 2030: 67,751 · -5.4%
• By 2040: 59,488 · -16.9%
• By 2050: 51,601 · -28.0%
• By 2075: 35,025 · -51.1%
• By 2100: 21,243 · -70.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (97%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 97% Two or more races 2% Hispanic / Latino 2%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 10% Slovak 4% Iranian 3%
• Foreign-born: 5% · Canada
• Languages at home: 97% English-only · German/W. Germanic 1% Other Indo-European 1% French/Haitian/Cajun 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Cattaraugus

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+32.8) · D 33.6% · R 66.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: -22.2pp toward R · 2008: -10.6pp · 2024: -32.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+32.8 2020: R+29.5 2016: R+34.4 2012: R+13.4 2008: R+10.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -43.11%
• Current HPI: 280.7168
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

-15.4% since first listed

6 events — show timeline

• 2026-02-14 Price Changed $55,000 WNYREIS
• 2025-02-04 Listed $65,000 WNYREIS
• 2022-04-29 Sold (MLS) $61,000 WNYREIS
• 2022-02-15 Pending — WNYREIS
• 2022-01-25 Pending — WNYREIS
• 2021-08-17 Listed $65,000 WNYREIS