142 Pine Cone Gln · Holly Lake Ranch, TX 75765

$164,000

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,092 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 228 Days on market

Built 1985 $150/sqft · 19% below area Est $203k · 19% under $179/mo HOA · 11% of rent ↓ 3% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Cash flow +12.0/30.0
• Appreciation +6.5/10.0
• 1% rule +4.9/10.0
• Schools +4.0/10.0
• DSCR +3.5/10.0
• Livability +3.3/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

This authentic log cabin is priced to sell! Includes the adjoining lot. Updated and remodel includes granite countertops in kitchen, island and both bathrooms. Slide-out drawers in pantry. Both roof and AC condenser replaced in 2024. Front porch spans to the entire front of the house and perfect for watching wildlife meander by. The stand-alone wood-burning fireplace provides heat and ambiance during winter months. This would make a great get-away, full-time home or investment. Holly Lake Ranch is a resort community with 24-7 on-site security, lakes for fishing and watersports, 18-hole golf course, tennis, pickleball, fitness center and much more.

Key facts

• 18-hole golf course
• Slide-out drawers
• Lakes for fishing

Tags

• GRANITE COUNTERTOPS
• SLIDE-OUT DRAWERS
• WOOD-BURNING FIREPLACE
• 24-7 ON-SITE SECURITY
• LAKES FOR FISHING
• 18-HOLE GOLF COURSE

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $164k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-40 ($-484/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $157k (4.3% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $163k (0.8% below list).
• Recommended offer: $144k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 6.0% vs local median 3.8% in Holly Lake Ranch — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 66/100 on livability (#597 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: schools D-, amenities F, commute F.
• Harmony ISD (rural): math 48% / reading 47% proficiency, ranked #224 of 826 in TX (top 27%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 216 active listings in the ZIP; 72 units permitted in Wood County in 2024 (29 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $6k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $5k appreciation (3.1% local appreciation)).
• Wood County population projected at +12% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• At projected returns (3.1% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $46k cash investment doubles in ~7 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 6, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$33k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 228 days — a 12% lower offer ($144k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 44% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 6→22/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $144,320 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 228 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.99% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.00%
• Cash-on-cash: -1.05%
• DSCR: 0.95
• GRM: 8.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $202,580
• List price: $164,000
• Delta: -19.04%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 5 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
473 Meadow Vw	0.21mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,220 (+12%)	5mo	$171,900	$141	62

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

3.1% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 6.9%
• Equity multiple: 1.40×
• Total profit: $18,168
• Equity at exit: $74,634

10-year hold

• IRR: 9.6%
• Equity multiple: 2.47×
• Total profit: $67,463
• Equity at exit: $115,718

Cash invested: $45,920 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 75765

• Home prices YoY: 1.3%
• Active inventory: 216
• Price-to-rent: 8.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,628 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$860
• Tax from tax record: −$219 /mo · $2,626/yr
• Insurance: −$68
• HOA: −$179
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$342
• Net cashflow: $-40

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,679

Max offer price $156,871

Occupancy floor 97%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $41,000
• Closing costs: $4,920
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $179 · $2,148/yr
• Likely covers: watergymsecurity

Listing history 18 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $164,000 Active 228 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $164,000 Active 227 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $164,000 Active 226 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $164,000 Active 225 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $164,000 Active 223 DOM
6. 2026-06-12
   days on market $164,000 Active 222 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   days on market $164,000 Active 219 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $164,000 Active 218 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $164,000 Active 217 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $164,000 Active 216 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $164,000 Active 213 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $164,000 Active 212 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $164,000 Active 211 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $164,000 Active 210 DOM
15. 2026-04-11
    price $164,000 655-char remark

    Show marketing remark (655 chars)

    This authentic log cabin is priced to sell! Includes the adjoining lot. Updated and remodel includes granite countertops in kitchen, island and both bathrooms. Slide-out drawers in pantry. Both roof and AC condenser replaced in 2024. Front porch spans to the entire front of the house and perfect for watching wildlife meander by. The stand-alone wood-burning fireplace provides heat and ambiance during winter months. This would make a great get-away, full-time home or investment. Holly Lake Ranch is a resort community with 24-7 on-site security, lakes for fishing and watersports, 18-hole golf course, tennis, pickleball, fitness center and much more.

16. 2025-11-02
    listed $169,000 Active 655-char remark

    Show marketing remark (655 chars)

    This authentic log cabin is priced to sell! Includes the adjoining lot. Updated and remodel includes granite countertops in kitchen, island and both bathrooms. Slide-out drawers in pantry. Both roof and AC condenser replaced in 2024. Front porch spans to the entire front of the house and perfect for watching wildlife meander by. The stand-alone wood-burning fireplace provides heat and ambiance during winter months. This would make a great get-away, full-time home or investment. Holly Lake Ranch is a resort community with 24-7 on-site security, lakes for fishing and watersports, 18-hole golf course, tennis, pickleball, fitness center and much more.

17. 2010-04-09
    soldstatus
18. 2001-09-27
    soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,626 · $219/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,001 · $250/mo
• Expected delta: +$375/yr (+$31/mo · 14.3%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 6 d/yr ≥110°F today · 22 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 44% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $19,532
• − Mortgage interest: −$9,187
• − Property taxes: −$2,626
• − Insurance: −$820
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,563
• − Management: −$1,563
• − HOA: −$2,148
• − Depreciation: −$4,771
• Taxable loss: −$3,145
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$755
• After-tax cash flow: $270/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Harmony ISD
• NCES district ID: 4822560
• Math proficiency: 48% ▲ 2.00%
• Reading proficiency: 47% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $47,303
• Composite: 40.47/100
• National rank: #3721
• State rank: #224 of 826 in TX

Livability — Holly Lake Ranch

• Score: 66/100
• State rank: #597
• US rank: #11377

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment B- Housing A+ Health & safety D- User ratings C-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Holly Lake Ranch, TX
• Population (ZIP): 8,195

Population outlook (Wood County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 46,480 people
• By 2030: 47,796 · +2.8%
• By 2040: 50,142 · +7.9%
• By 2050: 52,122 · +12.1%
• By 2075: 57,033 · +22.7%
• By 2100: 56,418 · +21.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (79%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 79% Black 12% Hispanic / Latino 6% Two or more races 5%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 5%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 2% Slovak 2% Serbian 1%
• Foreign-born: 1% · Canada
• Languages at home: 95% English-only · Spanish 4%

Political lean MEDSL · Wood

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+69.7) · D 14.8% · R 84.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: -15.5pp toward R · 2008: -54.2pp · 2024: -69.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+69.7 2020: R+68.2 2016: R+70.0 2012: R+64.2 2008: R+54.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 3.10%
• Current HPI: 236.7688
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-3.0% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-11 Price Changed $164,000 GTAR
• 2025-11-02 Listed $169,000 GTAR
• 2010-04-09 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2001-09-27 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+8.7%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,626 · -2.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.