3819 Moorman Dr · Lynchburg, VA 24501

$255,000

1 bd · 2.5 ba · 2,530 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 45 Days on market

Built 1954 0.45 ac lot $101/sqft · 35% below area Est $330k · 23% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Livability +4.5/5.0
• Schools +4.0/10.0
• Cash flow +3.5/30.0
• Rent growth +2.8/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +0.0/10.0
• DSCR +0.0/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Brick ranch located off of Lakeside Dr. Two separate electric meters with a full one bedroom apartment in the basement. Property being sold "As is. "

Key facts

• Lakeside dr
• Brick ranch
• 0.45 acre lot

Tags

• FULL ONE BEDROOM APARTMENT
• SEPARATE ELECTRIC METERS
• BRICK RANCH
• LAKESIDE DR

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Off-street parking
• Utilities: Public water; Septic tank
• Home design: Single-family residence; One-story
• Construction: Brick and vinyl siding construction
• Exterior features: Shingle roof; Workshop on property

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Electric range; Refrigerator
• Flooring: Hardwood; Wood
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms; 1 half bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Heat pump
• Interior features: Two fireplaces; Finished walk-out basement; Basement laundry room
• Laundry & utility: Laundry room in basement; Electric water heater

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 1-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $255k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-770 ($-9k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $119k (53.3% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $106k (58.4% below list).
• Recommended offer: $106k (58.4% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 2.7% vs local median 4.0% in Lynchburg — below-typical yield; the buyer is paying a premium for something (appreciation thesis, condition, location) that the cap rate doesn't capture.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 91/100 on livability (#1 in VA, #58 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, cost of living A+; Watch: crime C-, employment D+.
• Lynchburg City Public School District (urban): math 36% / reading 61% proficiency, ranked #104 of 131 in VA (top 79%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 61% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Perrymont Elementary (math 27% / reading 42%, grade F, #966 of 1,108 statewide, top 89%, 337 students, 95% FRL); Paul Laurence Dunbar Middle For Innovation (math 37% / reading 66%, grade C, #222 of 342 statewide, top 65%, 531 students, 95% FRL); E.C. Glass High (math 42% / reading 84%, grade B-, #223 of 319 statewide, top 70%, 1,325 students, 92% FRL) — zoned schools average 94% FRL vs 61% district-wide (33 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.1%/yr); 221 active listings in the ZIP; lower-income renter base — watch delinquency; 472 units permitted in Lynchburg city in 2024 (240 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 30% of the median local income ($42k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Lynchburg County population projected at +37% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 45 days — a 3% lower offer ($247k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Current owner paid $18k; list at $255k implies a 1317% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1954 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→18/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $106,082 (58.4% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 45 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 58% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Built in 1954 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.42% ✗
• Cap rate: 2.67%
• Cash-on-cash: -12.94%
• DSCR: 0.42
• GRM: 20.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $330,401
• List price: $255,000
• Delta: -22.82%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 1.15% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -42.2%
• Equity multiple: -0.29×
• Total profit: $-92,360
• Equity at exit: $38,021

10-year hold

• IRR: -83.2%
• Equity multiple: -1.12×
• Total profit: $-151,534
• Equity at exit: $22,048

Cash invested: $71,400 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning
• State Virginia: 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning · D+2
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

VRLTA gives some tenant protections; Northern Virginia courts slower; rural VA landlord-leaning.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 24501

• Rents YoY: 1.1%
• Active inventory: 221
• Price-to-rent: 20.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,061 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,337
• Tax from tax record: −$164 /mo · $1,971/yr
• Insurance: −$106
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$223
• Net cashflow: $-770

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,035

Max offer price $119,035

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-625	-5% $-697	+0% $-770	+5% $-842	+10% $-914
Rent	-10% $-853	-5% $-812	+0% $-770	+5% $-728	+10% $-686
Rate	-1.0pp $-641	-0.5pp $-705	base $-770	+0.5pp $-836	+1.0pp $-903

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $63,750
• Closing costs: $7,650
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 20 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $255,000 Active 45 DOM
2. 2026-06-19
   days on market $255,000 Active 43 DOM
3. 2026-06-18
   days on market $255,000 Active 42 DOM
4. 2026-06-17
   days on market $255,000 Active 41 DOM
5. 2026-06-16
   days on market $255,000 Active 40 DOM
6. 2026-06-15
   days on market $255,000 Active 39 DOM
7. 2026-06-14
   days on market $255,000 Active 37 DOM
8. 2026-06-13
   days on market $255,000 Active 36 DOM
9. 2026-06-10
   days on market $255,000 Active 34 DOM
10. 2026-06-09
    days on market $255,000 Active 33 DOM
11. 2026-06-08
    days on market $255,000 Active 32 DOM
12. 2026-06-07
    days on market $255,000 Active 31 DOM
13. 2026-06-03
    pricedays on market $255,000 Active 27 DOM
14. 2026-06-02
    days on market $259,900 Active 26 DOM
15. 2026-06-01
    days on market $259,900 Active 25 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $259,900 Active 24 DOM
17. 2026-05-30
    days on market $259,900 Active 23 DOM
18. 2026-05-05
    listed $259,900 Active 159-char remark
19. 1964-03-27
    soldstatus $18,000
20. 1959-01-06
    soldstatus $18,200

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast VA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,971 · $164/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,091 · $174/mo
• Expected delta: +$120/yr (+$10/mo · 6.1%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥102°F today · 18 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 3% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $12,730
• − Mortgage interest: −$14,284
• − Property taxes: −$1,971
• − Insurance: −$1,275
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,018
• − Management: −$1,018
• − Depreciation: −$7,418
• Taxable loss: −$14,255
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$3,421
• After-tax cash flow: $-5,815/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Lynchburg City Public School District
• NCES district ID: 5102340
• Math proficiency: 36% ▼ -38.00%
• Reading proficiency: 61% ▼ -8.00%
• Median HH income: $39,097
• Composite: 40.4/100
• National rank: #3730
• State rank: #104 of 131 in VA

Livability — Lynchburg

• Score: 91/100
• State rank: #1
• US rank: #58

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A+ Cost of living A+ Crime C- Employment D+ Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Lynchburg, VA
• County: Lynchburg City · 97,036 people
• City population: 97,036
• Metro: Lynchburg, VA
• Population (ZIP): 25,006
• Household income: $42,222
• Rent vs Own: 53.0% rent · 47.0% own
• Severe rent burden: 1717.0

Population outlook (Lynchburg County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 87,977 people
• By 2030: 93,626 · +6.4%
• By 2040: 106,145 · +20.7%
• By 2050: 120,783 · +37.3%
• By 2075: 162,249 · +84.4%
• By 2100: 191,358 · +117.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.55)
• Race & ethnicity: White 58% Black 34% Two or more races 4% Hispanic / Latino 3%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 1% Italian 1% Serbian 1%
• Foreign-born: 3% · Canada
• Languages at home: 96% English-only · Spanish 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Lynchburg

• 2024 margin: Lean R (+7.9) · D 45.4% · R 53.3% · Other 1.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: -3.9pp toward R · 2008: -4.0pp · 2024: -7.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+7.9 2020: D+2.6 2016: R+9.0 2012: R+10.6 2008: R+4.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -131.06%
• Current HPI: 223.6839
• Rent YoY: ▲ 1.15%
• Metro: Lynchburg, VA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.40%
• F500 in state: 50

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in VA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Aerospace / Defense	4	$236B
▸Technology / Defense	3	$32B
▸Financial Services	2	$176B
▸Utilities	2	$27B
▸Insurance	2	$25B
▸Technology	2	$15B

Price history

+1301.1% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-03 Price Changed $255,000 LMLS
• 2026-05-05 Listed $259,900 LMLS
• 1964-03-27 Sold (Public Records) $18,000 Public Records
• 1959-01-06 Sold (Public Records) $18,200 Public Records

Property tax history

+3.4%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,971 · +12.3% YoY. Source: county tax records.