8630 42 ND Pl N #14 · West Lealman, FL 33709

$27,500

1 bd · 1.0 ba · 552 sqft · Manufactured public records · 87 Days on market

Built 1973 1,773 sqft lot $250/mo HOA · 15% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +15.0/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• 1% rule +5.0/10.0
• DSCR +5.0/10.0
• Schools +4.3/10.0
• Livability +4.0/5.0
• Rent growth +2.7/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Under contract-accepting backup offers. Welcome to Sea Horse Community, a private slice of paradise in sunny St Petersburg. This property offers a rare opportunity in one of the few 55+ communities where you OWN the land. While the home has experienced interior damage from recent hurricanes, it holds tremendous potential for the right buyer. Whether you choose to remodel to your personal taste or rebuild entirely, the value is undeniable especially with very low HOA fees of just $250/month. Step outside and enjoy the ultimate convenience: the community pool is right at your front door, perfect for cooling off, relaxing, or socializing with neighbors. The clubhouse is large, lively, and alwa

Key facts

• 55+ community
• Clubhouse
• Community pool

Tags

• 55+ COMMUNITY
• COMMUNITY POOL
• CLUBHOUSE
• QUICK DRIVE TO GULF BEACHES

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 1-bed/1.0-bath manufactured listed at $28k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $382 ($5k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $28k).
• Recommended offer: $26k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 41.6% vs local median 1.8% in West Lealman — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 81/100 on livability (#84 in FL, #1,396 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: commute A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: schools C-, employment D+, amenities F.
• Pinellas (suburban): math 51% / reading 51% proficiency, ranked #31 of 73 in FL (top 42%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 309 active listings in the ZIP; 9 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 19d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 2,676 units permitted in Pinellas County in 2024 (1,422 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 38% of the median local income ($54k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $190 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $825 of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Pinellas County population projected at +14% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 1.0% rent growth), your $8k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 87 days — a 6% lower offer ($26k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Current owner paid $14k; list at $28k implies a 104% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: property tax is 5.0% of price; flood insurance adds $427/mo.
• Climate carrying-cost: in FEMA flood zone AE (mandatory federal flood insurance); severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $25,850 (6.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 87 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1973 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
4. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
5. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
6. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
7. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
8. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
9. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
10. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
11. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 6.11% ✓
• Cap rate: 41.57%
• Cash-on-cash: 126.00%
• DSCR: 6.61
• GRM: 1.4

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.99% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 53.5%
• Equity multiple: 3.21×
• Total profit: $17,028
• Equity at exit: $4,100

10-year hold

• IRR: 57.1%
• Equity multiple: 5.55×
• Total profit: $35,009
• Equity at exit: $2,378

Cash invested: $7,700 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 33709

• Rents YoY: 1.0%
• Active inventory: 309
• Price-to-rent: 1.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,681 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$144
• Tax from tax record: −$113 /mo · $1,362/yr
• Insurance: −$11
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$427 /mo · $5,118/yr
• HOA: −$250
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$353
• Net cashflow: $382

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,197

Max offer price $27,500

Occupancy floor 72%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $480	-5% $471	+0% $382	+5% $374	+10% $366
Rent	-10% $249	-5% $316	+0% $382	+5% $448	+10% $515
Rate	-1.0pp $396	-0.5pp $389	base $382	+0.5pp $375	+1.0pp $368

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $6,875
• Closing costs: $825
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 9 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
8800 Bay Pines Blvd #320 Saint Petersburg, FL	1.0	1.0	506	$2,200	$4.35	5d	1	0.26mi
5257 81st Ln N #6 Saint Petersburg, FL	1.0	1.0	745	$1,375	$1.85	25d	1	0.69mi
7801 34th Ave N #88 Saint Petersburg, FL	2.0	1.0	624	$1,300	$2.08	2d	1	0.84mi
7801 34th Ave N #88 Saint Petersburg, FL	2.0	1.0	624	$1,400	$2.24	25d	1	0.84mi
7317 46th Ave N Unit 4 St. Petersburg, FL	1.0	1.0	528	$1,200	$2.27	14d	1	1.15mi
4771 100th Way N Unit 204 St. Petersburg, FL	1.0	1.0	550	$1,549	$2.82	25d	1	1.26mi
4801 71st St N St Petersburg, FL	2.0	1.0	726	$1,900	$2.62	18d	1	1.35mi
4801 71st St N Saint Petersburg, FL	2.0	1.0	726	$1,900	$2.62	5d	1	1.35mi
5140 70th St N Unit 3 St. Petersburg, FL	1.0	1.0	450	$1,200	$2.67	25d	1	1.45mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $250 · $3,000/yr
• Likely covers: pool

Listing history 3 events

1. 2026-03-19
   status Pending
2. 2025-12-22
   listed $27,500 Active
3. 1987-12-31
   soldstatus $13,500

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,362 · $113/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,362 · $113/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 10/10 Extreme FEMA zone AE · 99% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 10/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥107°F today · 24 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 10/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $20,167
• − Mortgage interest: −$1,540
• − Property taxes: −$1,362
• − Insurance: −$5,256
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,613
• − Management: −$1,613
• − HOA: −$3,000
• − Depreciation: −$800
• Taxable income: $4,982
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,196
• After-tax cash flow: $3,388/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Pinellas
• NCES district ID: 1201560
• Math proficiency: 51% ▼ -5.00%
• Reading proficiency: 51% ▼ -3.00%
• Median HH income: $46,270
• Composite: 43.27/100
• National rank: #3046
• State rank: #31 of 73 in FL

Livability — West Lealman

• Score: 81/100
• State rank: #84
• US rank: #1396

Category grades

Amenities F Commute A+ Cost of living A+ Crime C+ Employment D+ Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: West Lealman, FL
• County: Pinellas County · 939,478 people
• City population: 25,371
• Metro: Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater, FL
• Population (ZIP): 25,050
• Household income: $53,501
• Rent vs Own: 23.9% rent · 76.1% own
• Severe rent burden: 712.0

Population outlook (Pinellas County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,027,532 people
• By 2030: 1,063,586 · +3.5%
• By 2040: 1,125,020 · +9.5%
• By 2050: 1,168,637 · +13.7%
• By 2075: 1,265,188 · +23.1%
• By 2100: 1,260,357 · +22.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (73%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 73% Hispanic / Latino 11% Two or more races 10% Black 5% Asian 5%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 2% Puerto Rican 3% Cuban 2% Dominican 1%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 3% Romanian 3% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 14% · Canada, Vietnam, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 84% English-only · Spanish 9% Other Indo-European 2% Vietnamese 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Pinellas

• 2024 margin: Lean R (+5.2) · D 46.9% · R 52.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: -13.5pp toward R · 2008: 8.3pp · 2024: -5.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+5.2 2020: D+0.2 2016: R+1.1 2012: D+5.6 2008: D+8.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -416.74%
• Current HPI: 391.368
• Rent YoY: ▲ 0.99%
• Metro: Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+103.7% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-19 Pending — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-12-22 Listed $27,500 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 1987-12-31 Sold (Public Records) $13,500 Public Records

Property tax history

+7.0%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,362 · -2.3% YoY. Source: county tax records.