7809 Lewis Ave Ave · Billings, MT 59106

$225,000

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,120 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 102 Days on market

Built 1948 10,800 sqft lot ↓ 13% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +12.8/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Livability +4.0/5.0
• DSCR +3.8/10.0
• Schools +3.5/10.0
• Rent growth +3.4/5.0
• 1% rule +2.5/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Key facts

• Two lots
• Great layout
• Closed front porch

Tags

• TWO LOTS
• HUGE KITCHEN
• CLOSED FRONT PORCH
• LARGE SHOP
• ADDITIONAL PARKING
• GREAT LAYOUT

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Detached oversized garage with workshop; Two covered garage spaces; Additional parking
• Utilities: Private water (cistern); Private sewer (septic tank)
• Home design: Single-family residence; Two levels
• Construction: Asphalt shingle roof
• Exterior features: Deck; Covered patio; Front porch; Patio; Fenced yard; Landscaped, level interior lot

Interior

• Kitchen: Electric Range, Gas Range, Oven, Microwave, Refrigerator
• Bedrooms: Two main-level bedrooms
• Bathrooms: One full bathroom on the main level
• Heating & cooling: Electric heating; Propane heating; Window unit cooling
• Interior features: Electric and gas range, oven, microwave, and refrigerator included; Full basement
• Laundry & utility: Has basement (utility space available)

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $225k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-19 ($-232/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $222k (1.5% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $168k (25.3% below list).
• Recommended offer: $168k (25.3% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.2% vs local median 3.0% in Billings — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 80/100 on livability (#10 in MT, #1,830 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, housing A+; Watch: crime F.
• Elder Grove Elementary (rural): math 34% / reading 45% proficiency, ranked #54 of 116 in MT (top 47%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; only 15% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Zoned schools: Elder Grove School (math 47% / reading 47%, grade D-, #101 of 293 statewide, top 39%, 458 students, 0% FRL); Elder Grove 7-8 (math 23% / reading 43%, grade F, #97 of 146 statewide, top 66%, 231 students, 0% FRL) — zoned schools average 0% FRL vs 15% district-wide (15 pts lower); this property's tenant base skews higher-income than the district average.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.4%/yr); 414 active listings in the ZIP; high-income renter base; 1,401 units permitted in Yellowstone County in 2024 (281 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent is only 16% of the median local income ($126k/yr) — well below the 30% rent-burden line; pricing power to push rent on renewal without tenant pushback.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Yellowstone County population projected at +26% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 102 days — a 9% lower offer ($205k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1948 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wildfire risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $168,082 (25.3% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 102 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 25% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Built in 1948 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
7. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
8. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
9. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
10. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
11. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.75% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.19%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.37%
• DSCR: 0.98
• GRM: 11.2

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.42% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -16.6%
• Equity multiple: 0.41×
• Total profit: $-37,080
• Equity at exit: $33,548

10-year hold

• IRR: -7.8%
• Equity multiple: 0.50×
• Total profit: $-31,338
• Equity at exit: $19,454

Cash invested: $63,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 82 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Montana: 82 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+11
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

30-day notice; no rent control; preempted; rural-skewed market.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 59106

• Rents YoY: 3.4%
• Active inventory: 414
• Price-to-rent: 11.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,681 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,180
• Tax from tax record: −$74 /mo · $882/yr
• Insurance: −$94
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$353
• Net cashflow: $-19

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,705

Max offer price $221,585

Occupancy floor 96%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $56,250
• Closing costs: $6,750
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 20 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $225,000 Active 102 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $225,000 Active 101 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $225,000 Active 100 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $225,000 Active 99 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $225,000 Active 98 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $225,000 Active 96 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $225,000 Active 95 DOM
8. 2026-06-10
   days on market $225,000 Active 93 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $225,000 Active 92 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $225,000 Active 91 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $225,000 Active 90 DOM
12. 2026-06-05
    days on market $225,000 Active 87 DOM
13. 2026-06-03
    days on market $225,000 Active 86 DOM
14. 2026-06-02
    days on market $225,000 Active 85 DOM
15. 2026-06-01
    days on market $225,000 Active 84 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $225,000 Active 83 DOM
17. 2026-05-30
    days on market $225,000 Active 82 DOM
18. 2026-04-27
    price $225,000
19. 2026-04-01
    price $250,000
20. 2026-03-09
    listed $260,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MT · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $882 · $74/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,890 · $157/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,008/yr (+$84/mo · 114.3%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 7/10 Severe
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥94°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 4/10 Moderate 4 unhealthy d/yr today · 5 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $20,170
• − Mortgage interest: −$12,603
• − Property taxes: −$882
• − Insurance: −$1,125
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,614
• − Management: −$1,614
• − Depreciation: −$6,545
• Taxable loss: −$4,213
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,011
• After-tax cash flow: $779/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Elder Grove Elementary
• NCES district ID: 3009720
• Math proficiency: 34% ▼ -1.00%
• Reading proficiency: 45% ▼ -6.00%
• Median HH income: $58,421
• Composite: 34.84/100
• National rank: #5095
• State rank: #54 of 116 in MT

Livability — Billings

• Score: 80/100
• State rank: #10
• US rank: #1830

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A+ Cost of living A Crime F Employment B- Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Yellowstone County · 159,426 people
• City population: 147,124
• Metro: Billings, MT
• Population (ZIP): 21,417
• Household income: $125,833
• Rent vs Own: 20.7% rent · 79.3% own
• Severe rent burden: 243.0

Population outlook (Yellowstone County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 176,227 people
• By 2030: 185,619 · +5.3%
• By 2040: 203,543 · +15.5%
• By 2050: 221,100 · +25.5%
• By 2075: 266,931 · +51.5%
• By 2100: 301,141 · +70.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (87%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 87% Two or more races 5% Hispanic / Latino 4% Native American 1%
• Common ancestry: Portuguese 12% Lithuanian 2% Italian 2%
• Foreign-born: 2% · Canada
• Languages at home: 96% English-only · French/Haitian/Cajun 2% Spanish 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Yellowstone

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+27.1) · D 34.9% · R 62.0% · Other 3.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: -20.8pp toward R · 2008: -6.3pp · 2024: -27.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+27.1 2020: R+24.0 2016: R+27.1 2012: R+20.6 2008: R+6.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -104.18%
• Current HPI: 186.9889
• Rent YoY: ▲ 3.42%
• Metro: Billings, MT
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.41%
• F500 in state: 2

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MT)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology / Analytics	1	$2B

Price history

-13.5% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-27 Price Changed $225,000 BMTMLS
• 2026-04-01 Price Changed $250,000 BMTMLS
• 2026-03-09 Listed $260,000 BMTMLS

Property tax history

+1.9%/yr

Latest (2025): $882 · -30.9% YoY. Source: county tax records.