7814 Route 305 · Belfast, NY 14711

$30,600

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,282 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 59 Days on market

Built 1955 2.00 ac lot $24/sqft · 61% below area ↓ 15% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the B+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Appreciation +8.1/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +4.5/10.0
• Livability +3.1/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Key facts

• 2 acre lot
• 2 garage spots
• Built 1955

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Detached garage; 2-car garage
• Utilities: Well water; Septic tank
• Home design: Single-story home; Existing structure
• Construction: Vinyl siding; Block foundation
• Exterior features: Dirt driveway; Leased propane tank; Irregular 2-acre lot (approx. 202 x 492); Private road frontage

Interior

• Bedrooms: One main-level bedroom
• Bathrooms: One full bathroom on the main level
• Heating & cooling: Propane heating; Forced air heating
• Interior features: Basement is partial; Other interior features — see remarks
• Laundry & utility: Propane water heater

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $31k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $642 ($8k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $31k).
• Recommended offer: $30k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 61/100 on livability (#927 in NY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: employment C-, schools D+, crime F.
• Cuba-Rushford Central School District (rural): math 44% / reading 61% proficiency, ranked #350 of 590 in NY (top 59%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: 23 active listings in the ZIP; 87 units permitted in Allegany County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $2k of equity ($212 loan paydown + $2k appreciation (6.1% local appreciation)).
• Allegany County population projected at -26% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (6.1% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $9k cash investment doubles in ~1 year — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 59 days — a 3% lower offer ($30k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 10y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $5k (15%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1955 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $29,682 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 59 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1955 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 3.53% ✓
• Cap rate: 31.45%
• Cash-on-cash: 89.86%
• DSCR: 5.00
• GRM: 2.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $77,902
• List price: $30,600
• Delta: -60.72%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 1 within 2.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

6.12% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 96.2%
• Equity multiple: 6.83×
• Total profit: $49,930
• Equity at exit: $19,464

10-year hold

• IRR: 93.9%
• Equity multiple: 14.40×
• Total profit: $114,845
• Equity at exit: $35,495

Cash invested: $8,568 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 14711

• Home prices YoY: 2.2%
• Active inventory: 23
• Price-to-rent: 2.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,080 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$160
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$38 /mo · $459/yr
• Insurance: −$13
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$227
• Net cashflow: $642

Break-even live

Break-even rent $268

Max offer price $30,600

Occupancy floor 36%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $663	-5% $652	+0% $642	+5% $631	+10% $620
Rent	-10% $556	-5% $599	+0% $642	+5% $684	+10% $727
Rate	-1.0pp $657	-0.5pp $649	base $642	+0.5pp $634	+1.0pp $626

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $7,650
• Closing costs: $918
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 18 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $30,600 Active 59 DOM
2. 2026-06-21
   days on market $30,600 Active 58 DOM
3. 2026-06-18
   days on market $30,600 Active 56 DOM
4. 2026-06-17
   days on market $30,600 Active 55 DOM
5. 2026-06-16
   days on market $30,600 Active 54 DOM
6. 2026-06-15
   days on market $30,600 Active 53 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $30,600 Active 51 DOM
8. 2026-06-12
   days on market $30,600 Active 50 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $30,600 Active 47 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $30,600 Active 46 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $30,600 Active 45 DOM
12. 2026-06-07
    days on market $30,600 Active 44 DOM
13. 2026-06-04
    days on market $30,600 Active 41 DOM
14. 2026-06-02
    days on market $30,600 Active 40 DOM
15. 2026-06-01
    days on market $30,600 Active 39 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $30,600 Active 38 DOM
17. 2026-04-20
    listed $36,000 Active
18. 2016-03-20
    listed $100

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥89°F today · 17 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $12,958
• − Mortgage interest: −$1,714
• − Property taxes: −$459
• − Insurance: −$153
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,037
• − Management: −$1,037
• − Depreciation: −$890
• Taxable income: $7,669
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,840
• After-tax cash flow: $5,859/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Cuba-Rushford Central School District
• NCES district ID: 3632010
• Math proficiency: 44% ▼ -18.00%
• Reading proficiency: 61% ▲ 5.00%
• Median HH income: $47,256
• Composite: 44.53/100
• National rank: #2792
• State rank: #350 of 590 in NY

Livability — Belfast

• Score: 61/100
• State rank: #927
• US rank: #18080

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment C- Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 1,861

Population outlook (Allegany County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 45,362 people
• By 2030: 43,078 · -5.0%
• By 2040: 38,031 · -16.2%
• By 2050: 33,634 · -25.9%
• By 2075: 25,285 · -44.3%
• By 2100: 18,902 · -58.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (98%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 98% Two or more races 2%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 5% Lithuanian 3% Iranian 3%
• Foreign-born: 0% · Canada
• Languages at home: 91% English-only · German/W. Germanic 9%

Political lean MEDSL · Allegany

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+43.2) · D 28.4% · R 71.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: -21.5pp toward R · 2008: -21.7pp · 2024: -43.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+43.2 2020: R+38.9 2016: R+42.3 2012: R+25.3 2008: R+21.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 6.12%
• Current HPI: 286.2504
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

-15.0% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-27 Price Changed $30,600 WNYREIS
• 2026-04-20 Listed $36,000 WNYREIS
• 2016-03-20 Listed $100 UNYREIS

Property tax history

+1.3%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,938 · +1.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.