268 Cascade Falls Ln · Marble Falls, TX 78654

$286,499

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,900 sqft · SingleFamily · 44 Days on market

Built 2026 Poor condition 7,274 sqft lot $151/sqft · 10% below area Est $317k · 10% under $25/mo HOA · 1% of rent ↓ 6% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +11.8/15.0
• Cash flow +10.5/30.0
• Livability +3.5/5.0
• 1% rule +3.2/10.0
• DSCR +3.0/10.0
• Schools +3.0/10.0
• Rent growth +2.3/5.0
• Condition / age +1.0/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

This single-story home shares an open layout between the kitchen, nook and family room for easy entertaining, along with access to the covered patio for year-round outdoor lounging. A luxe owner's suite is at the back of the home and comes complete with an en-suite bathroom and walk-in closet, while three secondary bedrooms are near the front of the home, ideal for household members and overnight guests.

Key facts

• Walk-in closet
• Open layout
• Covered patio

Tags

• OPEN LAYOUT
• COVERED PATIO
• EN-SUITE BATHROOM
• WALK-IN CLOSET

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: Part of Thunder Rock HOA with a $25 monthly fee covering common area and grounds maintenance; Community amenities include clubhouse, community mailbox, fitness center, lake, playground, park, pool, and trails/paths

Exterior

• Parking: Attached garage with 2 covered parking spaces (2 total)
• Utilities: Electricity available; Public water; Public sewer (connected)
• Home design: Single-story home; New construction by Lennar; Southeast-facing; Has a view
• Construction: Built with brick, HardiPlank, masonry and stone; Composition roof; Slab foundation; New construction
• Exterior features: Private yard; Front yard; Back yard; Covered patio; Front porch; Patio; Community pool

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Range
• Bedrooms: 4 main-level bedrooms
• Flooring: Carpet; Tile; Vinyl
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Open floor plan; Kitchen island; Walk-in closets; Blinds on windows
• Laundry & utility: Dedicated laundry room

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $286k. Condition is rated poor.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-148 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $265k (7.5% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $235k (17.9% below list).
• Recommended offer: $235k (17.9% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 5.7% vs local median 3.8% in Marble Falls — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 70/100 on livability (#367 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, health & safety A+, housing A; Watch: crime C-, employment D, amenities F.
• Marble Falls ISD (town): math 32% / reading 38% proficiency, ranked #511 of 826 in TX (top 62%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Colt El (math 35% / reading 38%, grade F, #1,883 of 4,322 statewide, top 44%, 644 students, 62% FRL); Marble Falls Middle (math 32% / reading 37%, grade F, #858 of 1,662 statewide, top 54%, 911 students, 67% FRL); Marble Falls H S (math 29% / reading 47%, grade F, #880 of 1,632 statewide, top 54%, 1,145 students, 61% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-0.6%/yr); 764 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 891 units permitted in Burnet County in 2024 (76 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 38% of the median local income ($74k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $9k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Burnet County population projected at +22% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 44 days — a 3% lower offer ($278k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $20k (7%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Recommended offer $235,094 (17.9% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 44 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 18% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Have any recent inspections been done? Can we get a copy of the seller's disclosures and any deferred-maintenance estimates?
4. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.82% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.67%
• Cash-on-cash: -2.21%
• DSCR: 0.90
• GRM: 10.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $316,990
• List price: $286,499
• Delta: -9.62%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
104 Southridge Trl	0.23mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,949 (+3%)	2mo	$311,999	$160	79
105 Southridge Trl	0.23mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,949 (+3%)	2mo	$292,999	$150	78
109 Cascade Falls Ln	0.25mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,949 (+3%)	1mo	$281,999	$145	78
248 Rock Springs Dr	0.24mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,949 (+3%)	2mo	$284,999	$146	78
109 Southridge Trl	0.22mi	4/2.0	2,060 (+8%)	1mo	$295,990	$144	75
117 Cascade Falls Ln	0.23mi	4/2.0	1,760 (-7%)	2mo	$250,990	$143	75
240 Rock Springs Dr	0.22mi	4/2.0	2,060 (+8%)	1mo	$304,990	$148	74
124 Southridge Trl	0.16mi	4/2.0	2,097 (+10%)	1mo	$321,740	$153	74
100 Southridge Trl	0.25mi	4/2.0	2,060 (+8%)	2mo	$320,990	$156	73
264 Rock Springs Dr	0.27mi	4/2.0	2,060 (+8%)	2mo	$297,990	$145	72
100 Cascade Falls Ln	0.28mi	4/2.0	2,060 (+8%)	1mo	$332,990	$162	72
128 Southridge Trl	0.15mi	4/3.0	2,109 (+11%)	1mo	$329,990	$156	70

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -23.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.22×
• Total profit: $-62,670
• Equity at exit: $42,718

10-year hold

• IRR: -29.3%
• Equity multiple: -0.16×
• Total profit: $-93,103
• Equity at exit: $24,771

Cash invested: $80,220 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 78654

• Home prices YoY: -31.8%
• Rents YoY: -0.6%
• Active inventory: 764
• Price-to-rent: 10.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,351 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,502
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$358 /mo · $4,297/yr
• Insurance: −$119
• HOA: −$25
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$494
• Net cashflow: $-148

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,538

Max offer price $265,130

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $50	-5% $-49	+0% $-148	+5% $-247	+10% $-346
Rent	-10% $-333	-5% $-241	+0% $-148	+5% $-55	+10% $38
Rate	-1.0pp $-3	-0.5pp $-75	base $-148	+0.5pp $-222	+1.0pp $-297

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $71,625
• Closing costs: $8,595
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 2 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
252 Rock Springs Dr Marble Falls, TX	4.0	2.0	1666	$2,300	$1.38	45d	1	0.25mi
169 Standing Rock Ln Marble Falls, TX	4.0	3.0	2525	$2,750	$1.09	6d	1	0.48mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $25 · $300/yr

Listing history 21 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $286,499 Active 44 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $286,499 Active 41 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $286,499 Active 40 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $286,499 Active 39 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $286,499 Active 38 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $286,499 Active 36 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $286,499 Active 35 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   pricedays on market $286,499 Active 32 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $285,999 Active 31 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $285,999 Active 30 DOM
11. 2026-06-05
    pricedays on market $285,999 Active 27 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $286,999 Active 26 DOM

    Show marketing remark (407 chars)

    This single-story home shares an open layout between the kitchen, nook and family room for easy entertaining, along with access to the covered patio for year-round outdoor lounging. A luxe owner's suite is at the back of the home and comes complete with an en-suite bathroom and walk-in closet, while three secondary bedrooms are near the front of the home, ideal for household members and overnight guests.

13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $286,999 Active 25 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $286,999 Active 24 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $286,999 Active 23 DOM
16. 2026-05-15
    price $286,999 407-char remark

    Show marketing remark (407 chars)

    This single-story home shares an open layout between the kitchen, nook and family room for easy entertaining, along with access to the covered patio for year-round outdoor lounging. A luxe owner's suite is at the back of the home and comes complete with an en-suite bathroom and walk-in closet, while three secondary bedrooms are near the front of the home, ideal for household members and overnight guests.

17. 2026-05-14
    price $286,999 677-char remark

    Show marketing remark (407 chars)

    This single-story home shares an open layout between the kitchen, nook and family room for easy entertaining, along with access to the covered patio for year-round outdoor lounging. A luxe owner's suite is at the back of the home and comes complete with an en-suite bathroom and walk-in closet, while three secondary bedrooms are near the front of the home, ideal for household members and overnight guests.

18. 2026-05-14
    listed $306,999 Active 407-char remark

    Show marketing remark (407 chars)

    This single-story home shares an open layout between the kitchen, nook and family room for easy entertaining, along with access to the covered patio for year-round outdoor lounging. A luxe owner's suite is at the back of the home and comes complete with an en-suite bathroom and walk-in closet, while three secondary bedrooms are near the front of the home, ideal for household members and overnight guests.

19. 2026-05-12
    price $306,499 677-char remark
20. 2026-05-11
    price $305,999 677-char remark
21. 2026-05-08
    listed $303,999 Active 677-char remark

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $28,211
• − Mortgage interest: −$16,048
• − Property taxes: −$4,297
• − Insurance: −$1,432
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,257
• − Management: −$2,257
• − HOA: −$300
• − Depreciation: −$8,335
• Taxable loss: −$6,715
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,612
• After-tax cash flow: $-160/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 2 photos

Poor 20/100 Extensive rehab

This single-story home requires extensive repairs, including a major roof replacement and exterior siding repair, to become move-in ready. Landscaping improvements are also needed to enhance curb appeal.

Repairs flagged

• Major roof — Significant damage visible
• Major exterior siding — Weathered and damaged
• Major landscaping — Overgrown vegetation

Value-add opportunities

• Resale roof repair — Fixing the roof is a critical safety and value improvement
• Resale exterior siding repair — Repairing the siding will improve the home's curb appeal
• Both landscaping — A well-maintained yard enhances both resale and rental value

Renovation cost estimate screening

Repair item	Severity	Est. cost
roof · Significant damage visible	Major	$15,000–50,000
exterior siding · Weathered and damaged	Major	$15,000–50,000
landscaping · Overgrown vegetation	Major	$15,000–50,000
Total estimated repair cost · 3 items		$45,000–150,000

Value-add ROI direction

• Resale roof repair — Fixing the roof is a critical safety and value improvement ↑
• Resale exterior siding repair — Repairing the siding will improve the home's curb appeal ↑
• Both landscaping — A well-maintained yard enhances both resale and rental value ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Marble Falls ISD
• NCES district ID: 4829010
• Math proficiency: 32% ▼ -8.00%
• Reading proficiency: 38% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $49,663
• Composite: 30.3/100
• National rank: #6278
• State rank: #511 of 826 in TX

Livability — Marble Falls

• Score: 70/100
• State rank: #367
• US rank: #7802

Category grades

Amenities F Commute C+ Cost of living A+ Crime C- Employment D Housing A Health & safety A+ User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Marble Falls, TX
• County: Burnet County · 35,210 people
• City population: 20,650
• Metro: Austin-Round Rock-Georgetown, TX
• Population (ZIP): 20,650
• Household income: $74,130
• Rent vs Own: 33.3% rent · 66.7% own
• Severe rent burden: 354.0

Population outlook (Burnet County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 50,492 people
• By 2030: 52,995 · +5.0%
• By 2040: 57,528 · +13.9%
• By 2050: 61,444 · +21.7%
• By 2075: 71,098 · +40.8%
• By 2100: 74,634 · +47.8%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (68%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 68% Hispanic / Latino 28% Two or more races 8%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 24%
• Common ancestry: Serbian 2% Italian 2% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 8% · Canada
• Languages at home: 81% English-only · Spanish 18% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Burnet

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+55.7) · D 21.7% · R 77.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: -11.6pp toward R · 2008: -44.1pp · 2024: -55.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+55.7 2020: R+53.1 2016: R+56.8 2012: R+54.6 2008: R+44.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -118.02%
• Current HPI: 252.9861
• Rent YoY: ▼ -0.62%
• Metro: Austin-Round Rock-Georgetown, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-5.8% since first listed

10 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-08 Price Changed $286,499 Unlock MLS
• 2026-06-06 Price Changed $286,499 Zillow
• 2026-06-03 Price Changed $285,999 Unlock MLS
• 2026-06-03 Price Changed $285,999 Zillow
• 2026-05-15 Price Changed $286,999 Zillow
• 2026-05-14 Price Changed $286,999 Unlock MLS
• 2026-05-14 Listed $306,999 Zillow
• 2026-05-12 Price Changed $306,499 Unlock MLS
• 2026-05-11 Price Changed $305,999 Unlock MLS
• 2026-05-08 Listed $303,999 Unlock MLS