16 Golden Acre Rd · Jasper, AR 72641

$173,000

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 441 sqft · SingleFamily · 276 Days on market

Average condition 1,742 sqft lot $392/sqft · 114% above area ↓ 13% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +22.1/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• DSCR +7.1/10.0
• 1% rule +5.8/10.0
• Schools +3.7/10.0
• Appreciation +3.5/10.0
• Livability +3.1/5.0
• Condition / age +2.8/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

Here's a fully furnished 2 bedroom, 1 bath Bull Shoals Lake cabin with year round views. Large private deck. Use of a pool and common areas. Public boat ramp less than a half mile down the road. This property would be ideal for a cabin or short term rental unit.

Key facts

• Public boat ramp
• Large private deck
• 1,742 sq ft lot

Tags

• BULL SHOALS LAKE CABIN
• LARGE PRIVATE DECK
• PUBLIC BOAT RAMP

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $173k. Condition is rated average.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $280 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $173k).
• Recommended offer: $152k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 8.2% vs local median 3.5% in Jasper — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 62/100 on livability (#217 in AR) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, health & safety A+; Watch: schools D, crime F, amenities F.
• Mountain Home School District (town): math 45% / reading 45% proficiency, ranked #40 of 238 in AR (top 17%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 76 active listings in the ZIP; 47 units permitted in Baxter County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-2.9%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Baxter County population projected to shrink 9% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 276 days — a 12% lower offer ($152k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $152,240 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 276 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.08% ✓
• Cap rate: 8.23%
• Cash-on-cash: 6.93%
• DSCR: 1.31
• GRM: 7.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $80,716
• List price: $173,000
• Delta: 114.33%
• Verdict: OVERPRICED
• Comps: 1 within 2.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-2.91% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -5.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.80×
• Total profit: $-9,545
• Equity at exit: $26,468

10-year hold

• IRR: 4.3%
• Equity multiple: 1.32×
• Total profit: $15,296
• Equity at exit: $16,117

Cash invested: $48,440 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 92 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Arkansas: 92 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+14
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Only US state where non-payment is criminal. Strongly landlord-favorable; very few tenant protections.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 72641

• Home prices YoY: -1.5%
• Active inventory: 76
• Price-to-rent: 7.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,868 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$907
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$216 /mo · $2,595/yr
• Insurance: −$72
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$392
• Net cashflow: $280

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,513

Max offer price $173,000

Occupancy floor 80%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $399	-5% $340	+0% $280	+5% $220	+10% $160
Rent	-10% $132	-5% $206	+0% $280	+5% $354	+10% $427
Rate	-1.0pp $367	-0.5pp $324	base $280	+0.5pp $235	+1.0pp $189

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $43,250
• Closing costs: $5,190
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 19 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $173,000 Active 276 DOM
2. 2026-06-19
   days on market $173,000 Active 274 DOM
3. 2026-06-18
   days on market $173,000 Active 273 DOM
4. 2026-06-17
   days on market $173,000 Active 272 DOM
5. 2026-06-16
   days on market $173,000 Active 271 DOM
6. 2026-06-15
   days on market $173,000 Active 270 DOM
7. 2026-06-14
   days on market $173,000 Active 268 DOM
8. 2026-06-12
   days on market $173,000 Active 267 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $173,000 Active 264 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $173,000 Active 263 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $173,000 Active 262 DOM
12. 2026-06-05
    days on market $173,000 Active 259 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $173,000 Active 257 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $173,000 Active 256 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $173,000 Active 255 DOM
16. 2026-05-30
    days on market $173,000 Active 254 DOM
17. 2025-11-05
    price $173,000 262-char remark

    Show marketing remark (262 chars)

    Here's a fully furnished 2 bedroom, 1 bath Bull Shoals Lake cabin with year round views. Large private deck. Use of a pool and common areas. Public boat ramp less than a half mile down the road. This property would be ideal for a cabin or short term rental unit.

18. 2025-10-29
    price $189,000 262-char remark

    Show marketing remark (262 chars)

    Here's a fully furnished 2 bedroom, 1 bath Bull Shoals Lake cabin with year round views. Large private deck. Use of a pool and common areas. Public boat ramp less than a half mile down the road. This property would be ideal for a cabin or short term rental unit.

19. 2025-09-18
    listed $199,000 Active 262-char remark

    Show marketing remark (262 chars)

    Here's a fully furnished 2 bedroom, 1 bath Bull Shoals Lake cabin with year round views. Large private deck. Use of a pool and common areas. Public boat ramp less than a half mile down the road. This property would be ideal for a cabin or short term rental unit.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $22,412
• − Mortgage interest: −$9,691
• − Property taxes: −$2,595
• − Insurance: −$865
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,793
• − Management: −$1,793
• − Depreciation: −$5,033
• Taxable income: $643
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$154
• After-tax cash flow: $3,204/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 11 photos

Average 55/100 Cosmetic rehab

A fully furnished 2-bedroom cabin with average condition, offering a good investment opportunity for a cosmetic renovation.

Repairs flagged

• Minor kitchen cabinets — slight wear
• Minor bathroom fixtures — basic and dated
• Minor interior paint — light wear

Value-add opportunities

• Both paint interior walls — enhances curb appeal and interior aesthetics
• Both replace basic appliances — improves functionality and appeal
• Both repair and upgrade small deck — enhances outdoor living space and curb appeal

Renovation cost estimate screening

Repair item	Severity	Est. cost
kitchen cabinets · slight wear	Minor	$500–3,000
bathroom fixtures · basic and dated	Minor	$500–3,000
interior paint · light wear	Minor	$500–3,000
Total estimated repair cost · 3 items		$1,500–9,000

Value-add ROI direction

• Both paint interior walls — enhances curb appeal and interior aesthetics ↑
• Both replace basic appliances — improves functionality and appeal ↑
• Both repair and upgrade small deck — enhances outdoor living space and curb appeal ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Mountain Home School District
• NCES district ID: 0500043
• Math proficiency: 45% ▼ -8.00%
• Reading proficiency: 45% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $36,966
• Composite: 37.4/100
• National rank: #4424
• State rank: #40 of 238 in AR

Livability — Jasper

• Score: 62/100
• State rank: #217
• US rank: #16736

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment F Housing B- Health & safety A+ User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 2,063

Population outlook (Baxter County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 39,886 people
• By 2030: 39,226 · -1.7%
• By 2040: 37,810 · -5.2%
• By 2050: 36,287 · -9.0%
• By 2075: 32,965 · -17.4%
• By 2100: 28,002 · -29.8%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (93%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 93% Hispanic / Latino 6%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 5%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 2% Lithuanian 2% Serbian 1%
• Foreign-born: 2%
• Languages at home: 98% English-only · Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Baxter

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+56.9) · D 20.7% · R 77.6% · Other 1.7%
• 2008→2024 swing: -25.3pp toward R · 2008: -31.6pp · 2024: -56.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+56.9 2020: R+53.3 2016: R+53.6 2012: R+44.0 2008: R+31.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -2.91%
• Current HPI: 195.4325
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.80%
• F500 in state: 10

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in AR)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Retail	1	$681B
▸Food / Agriculture	1	$53B
▸Retail / Energy	1	$22B
▸Transportation / Logistics	1	$12B
▸Energy	1	$4B

Price history

-13.1% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2025-11-05 Price Changed $173,000 MHMLS
• 2025-10-29 Price Changed $189,000 MHMLS
• 2025-09-18 Listed $199,000 MHMLS