3877 Lopa Rd · Bootjack, CA 95338

$175,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,152 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 2 Days on market

Built 1983 2.50 ac lot Est $177k · at est.

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +20.3/30.0
• ARV discount +8.1/15.0
• DSCR +6.4/10.0
• 1% rule +4.7/10.0
• Schools +3.0/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Livability +2.4/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Rare opportunity to own a versatile 2.5-acre property with residential and commercial zoning just minutes from Mariposa! This property offers the perfect balance of privacy, space, and convenience. The manageable parcel provides room to enjoy country living without the maintenance demands of larger acreage. The 1,152-square-foot home features an open-concept layout that seamlessly connects the living room, kitchen, and dining area, creating a comfortable and functional living space. With three bedrooms and two full bathrooms, there's plenty of room for a growing family, guests, or a home office setup. While the home could benefit from updates and improvements, it presents an excellent opportunity to build equity and bring your vision to life. Whether you're looking for a primary residence, investment property, or a space with business potential, the possibilities are substantial. Cash sale only.

Key facts

• Business potential
• Investment property
• Open-concept layout

Tags

• OPEN-CONCEPT LAYOUT
• INVESTMENT PROPERTY
• BUSINESS POTENTIAL

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: No common walls (detached); Single-unit property; No ADU; Accessibility features: none
• Financial info: Property listed as needing major repairs / fixer
• HOA & community: Rural community; Mountainous / foothills setting; Private road access (gravel, not maintained)

Exterior

• Parking: Driveway parking
• Utilities: Well water; Septic tank; Electricity on property; Telephone on property; Water connected; Sewer connected
• Home design: House; One story; Raised foundation
• Construction: Composition roof; Raised foundation; Built year from assessor
• Exterior features: Porch; Patio; Shed; Fenced yard (average condition); Property has a view; Lot over 40,000 sq ft

Interior

• Kitchen: Gas cooktop; Gas oven; Refrigerator; Breakfast counter/bar; Formal dining room; Tankless water heater
• Bedrooms: Three main-level bedrooms; Main floor primary bedroom
• Flooring: Laminate flooring
• Bathrooms: Two full bathrooms; Tub with shower
• Interior features: Open floor plan; Single-story home; Entry on main level
• Laundry & utility: Laundry room inside; Washer included; Dryer included; Individual laundry room

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $175k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $225 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $170k (2.9% below list).
• Recommended offer: $170k (2.9% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 7.8% vs local median 3.4% in Bootjack — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 48/100 on livability (#1,203 in CA) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: housing B; Watch: employment C-, crime F, amenities F.
• Mariposa County Unified (rural): math 27% / reading 42% proficiency, ranked #282 of 517 in CA (top 54%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Mariposa County High (math 47% / reading 57%, grade D+, #296 of 1,170 statewide, top 27%, 448 students, 61% FRL).
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 52% at this address vs 34% district-wide (+18 pts) — the actual schools serving this property are materially stronger than the Mariposa County Unified average implies; a family-tenant draw the district grade alone would hide.
• Market conditions: 167 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 89 units permitted in Mariposa County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Mariposa County population projected at -23% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.

Negotiation context

• Only 2 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $120k; 46% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 9→22/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $170,000 (2.9% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
2. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
3. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.97% ✗
• Cap rate: 7.83%
• Cash-on-cash: 5.50%
• DSCR: 1.24
• GRM: 8.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $177,408
• Comps found: 1

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
3993 Snow Creek Rd	0.66mi	2/1.0 (-1)	1,072 (-7%)	11mo	$165,000	$154	39

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -7.8%
• Equity multiple: 0.71×
• Total profit: $-14,082
• Equity at exit: $26,093

10-year hold

• IRR: 1.7%
• Equity multiple: 1.12×
• Total profit: $6,035
• Equity at exit: $15,131

Cash invested: $49,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

AB1482 statewide rent cap (10% + CPI). Cities (SF/LA/Berkeley) layer stricter rules. Just-cause statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 95338

• Active inventory: 167
• Price-to-rent: 8.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,700 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$918
• Tax from tax record: −$128 /mo · $1,533/yr
• Insurance: −$73
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$357
• Net cashflow: $225

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,416

Max offer price $175,000

Occupancy floor 82%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $43,750
• Closing costs: $5,250
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
3986 State Highway 49 S Mariposa, CA	2.0	2.0	1350	$1,700	$1.26	13d	1	0.84mi

Listing history 3 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $175,000 Active 2 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   remarks 699-char remark

   Show marketing remark (908 chars)

   Rare opportunity to own a versatile 2.5-acre property with residential and commercial zoning just minutes from Mariposa! This property offers the perfect balance of privacy, space, and convenience. The manageable parcel provides room to enjoy country living without the maintenance demands of larger acreage. The 1,152-square-foot home features an open-concept layout that seamlessly connects the living room, kitchen, and dining area, creating a comfortable and functional living space. With three bedrooms and two full bathrooms, there's plenty of room for a growing family, guests, or a home office setup. While the home could benefit from updates and improvements, it presents an excellent opportunity to build equity and bring your vision to life. Whether you're looking for a primary residence, investment property, or a space with business potential, the possibilities are substantial. Cash sale only.

3. 2026-06-17
   listed $175,000 Active 1 DOM

   Show marketing remark (908 chars)

   Rare opportunity to own a versatile 2.5-acre property with residential and commercial zoning just minutes from Mariposa! This property offers the perfect balance of privacy, space, and convenience. The manageable parcel provides room to enjoy country living without the maintenance demands of larger acreage. The 1,152-square-foot home features an open-concept layout that seamlessly connects the living room, kitchen, and dining area, creating a comfortable and functional living space. With three bedrooms and two full bathrooms, there's plenty of room for a growing family, guests, or a home office setup. While the home could benefit from updates and improvements, it presents an excellent opportunity to build equity and bring your vision to life. Whether you're looking for a primary residence, investment property, or a space with business potential, the possibilities are substantial. Cash sale only.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast CA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,533 · $128/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,533 · $128/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 9/10 Extreme
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 9 d/yr ≥100°F today · 22 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 10/10 Extreme 40 unhealthy d/yr today · 46 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $20,400
• − Mortgage interest: −$9,803
• − Property taxes: −$1,533
• − Insurance: −$875
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,632
• − Management: −$1,632
• − Depreciation: −$5,091
• Taxable loss: −$166
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$40
• After-tax cash flow: $2,735/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Mariposa County Unified
• NCES district ID: 0623940
• Math proficiency: 27% ▼ -12.00%
• Reading proficiency: 42% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $48,669
• Composite: 29.75/100
• National rank: #6438
• State rank: #282 of 517 in CA

Livability — Bootjack

• Score: 48/100
• State rank: #1203
• US rank: #26092

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living F Crime F Employment C- Housing B Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Bootjack, CA
• City population: 10,164
• Population (ZIP): 10,164

Population outlook (Mariposa County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 15,956 people
• By 2030: 15,078 · -5.5%
• By 2040: 13,413 · -15.9%
• By 2050: 12,232 · -23.3%
• By 2075: 11,143 · -30.2%
• By 2100: 10,187 · -36.2%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (81%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 81% Two or more races 9% Hispanic / Latino 9% Native American 2% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 7%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 5% Italian 4% Russian 2%
• Foreign-born: 4% · Canada, China
• Languages at home: 95% English-only · Spanish 2% French/Haitian/Cajun 1% Chinese 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Mariposa

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+21.1) · D 38.1% · R 59.1% · Other 2.8%
• 2008→2024 swing: -8.6pp toward R · 2008: -12.4pp · 2024: -21.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+21.1 2020: R+18.1 2016: R+23.2 2012: R+17.4 2008: R+12.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -151.82%
• Current HPI: 140.3045
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• F500 in state: 116

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	27	$1,492B
▸Financial Services	3	$174B
▸Retail	3	$44B
▸Insurance	3	$26B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
▸Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B

Price history

+45.8% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-17 Listed $175,000 CRMLS
• 2026-06-17 Listed $175,000 FRESNOMLS
• 2008-12-02 Sold (Public Records) $120,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+1.7%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,533 · +2.7% YoY. Source: county tax records.