23919 Farm Hill Rd · Spring, TX 77373

$225,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,678 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 52 Days on market

Built 1975 8,258 sqft lot Est $218k · at est. $21/mo HOA · 1% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +14.5/30.0
• ARV discount +6.1/15.0
• 1% rule +5.2/10.0
• DSCR +4.4/10.0
• Livability +3.3/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.4/5.0
• Schools +2.0/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Charming Home Near I-45 & Exxon Campus! Conveniently located near I-45, the Exxon Complex, Hardy Toll Road, and just minutes from the airport, this adorable home offers both comfort and convenience. The inviting kitchen opens to a cozy breakfast area with views of the spacious living room. Enjoy relaxing evenings by the beautiful fireplace, framed by built-in bookshelves and extra seating. Located just a short walk from the neighborhood park — come see this wonderful home today!

Key facts

• 8,258 sq ft lot
• 2 garage spots
• Community pool

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $225k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $50 ($599/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $225k).
• Recommended offer: $218k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 6.6% vs local median 4.5% in Spring — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 66/100 on livability (#635 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, employment B; Watch: crime D, amenities F, commute F.
• Spring ISD (suburban): math 19% / reading 26% proficiency, ranked #730 of 826 in TX (top 88%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 66% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Twin Creeks Middle (math 23% / reading 24%, grade F, #1,317 of 1,662 statewide, top 80%, 973 students, 83% FRL); Spring H S (math 12% / reading 21%, grade F, #1,497 of 1,632 statewide, top 92%, 2,760 students, 72% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-0.3%/yr); 595 active listings in the ZIP; solid renter incomes; 29,883 units permitted in Harris County in 2024 (8,621 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 31% of the median local income ($89k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Harris County population projected at +47% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 52 days — a 3% lower offer ($218k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 5 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $218,250 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 52 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1975 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.02% ✓
• Cap rate: 6.56%
• Cash-on-cash: 0.95%
• DSCR: 1.04
• GRM: 8.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $218,140
• Comps found: 9

Show comp detail 9 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
2514 Spring Day Ct	0.21mi	3/2.0	1,648 (-2%)	10mo	$215,000	$130	79
23715 Farm Hill Rd	0.24mi	3/2.0	1,660 (-1%)	15mo	$189,000	$114	75
23918 Spring Mill Ln	0.10mi	3/2.0	1,748 (+4%)	21mo	$225,000	$129	71
23803 Ironside Rd	0.15mi	3/2.5	1,822 (+9%)	14mo	$250,000	$137	65
23710 Prairie Bird Dr	0.44mi	3/2.5	1,789 (+7%)	8mo	$185,000	$103	60
23819 Creek Ridge Dr	0.23mi	4/3.0 (+1)	1,878 (+12%)	7mo	$210,000	$112	54
23611 Blodgett Peak Trl	0.33mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,750 (+4%)	24mo	$275,000	$157	53
23614 Summer Pine Dr	0.56mi	3/2.0	1,467 (-13%)	12mo	$240,000	$164	43
23510 Treeline Bluff Trl	0.46mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,892 (+13%)	20mo	$275,000	$145	36

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -18.6%
• Equity multiple: 0.37×
• Total profit: $-39,832
• Equity at exit: $33,548

10-year hold

• IRR: -19.8%
• Equity multiple: 0.11×
• Total profit: $-55,880
• Equity at exit: $19,454

Cash invested: $63,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77373

• Rents YoY: -0.3%
• Active inventory: 595
• Price-to-rent: 8.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,290 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,180
• Tax from tax record: −$465 /mo · $5,578/yr
• Insurance: −$94
• HOA: −$21
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$481
• Net cashflow: $50

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,227

Max offer price $225,000

Occupancy floor 93%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $56,250
• Closing costs: $6,750
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $21 · $252/yr

Listing history 15 events

1. 2026-05-11
   status Pending
2. 2026-05-10
   status Pending
3. 2026-05-05
   status Pending
4. 2026-05-03
   status Pending
5. 2026-04-22
   status Pending
6. 2026-04-01
   listed $225,000 Active
7. 2026-02-05
   historical $1,800
8. 2026-02-04
   historical
9. 2026-01-01
   listed $1,800
10. 2025-12-21
    historical $1,800
11. 2025-12-18
    listed $1,800
12. 2025-12-11
    historical $1,800
13. 2025-11-22
    listed $1,800
14. 2025-11-10
    listed $215,000 Active
15. 1992-01-02
    soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $5,578 · $465/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $5,578 · $465/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥110°F today · 24 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $27,485
• − Mortgage interest: −$12,603
• − Property taxes: −$5,578
• − Insurance: −$1,125
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,199
• − Management: −$2,199
• − HOA: −$252
• − Depreciation: −$6,545
• Taxable loss: −$3,016
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$724
• After-tax cash flow: $1,323/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Spring ISD
• NCES district ID: 4841220
• Math proficiency: 19% ▼ -13.00%
• Reading proficiency: 26% ▼ -6.00%
• Median HH income: $51,584
• Composite: 20.12/100
• National rank: #8643
• State rank: #730 of 826 in TX

Livability — Spring

• Score: 66/100
• State rank: #635
• US rank: #12101

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime D Employment B Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings C+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Spring, TX
• County: Harris County · 4,702,590 people
• City population: 430,529
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 69,739
• Household income: $88,617
• Rent vs Own: 27.2% rent · 72.8% own
• Severe rent burden: 1050.0

Population outlook (Harris County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 5,571,493 people
• By 2030: 6,089,821 · +9.3%
• By 2040: 7,142,806 · +28.2%
• By 2050: 8,185,864 · +46.9%
• By 2075: 10,574,329 · +89.8%
• By 2100: 12,109,958 · +117.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.69)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 40% White 30% Black 23% Two or more races 22% Asian 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 27% Puerto Rican 2% Cuban 2% Dominican 2%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 2% Italian 1% Slovak 1%
• Foreign-born: 17% · Canada, Jamaica, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 64% English-only · Spanish 32% Vietnamese 1% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Harris

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+5.5) · D 52.0% · R 46.4% · Other 1.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: +3.9pp toward D · 2008: 1.6pp · 2024: 5.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+5.5 2020: D+13.3 2016: D+12.4 2012: D+0.1 2008: D+1.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -142.98%
• Current HPI: 251.7231
• Rent YoY: ▼ -0.30%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+4.7% since first listed

15 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-11 Pending — HARMLS
• 2026-05-10 Pending — HARMLS
• 2026-05-05 Pending — HARMLS
• 2026-05-03 Pending — HARMLS
• 2026-04-22 Pending — HARMLS
• 2026-04-01 Listed $225,000 HARMLS
• 2026-02-05 Rental Removed $1,800 HARMLS
• 2026-02-04 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2026-01-01 Listed for Rent $1,800 HARMLS
• 2025-12-21 Rental Removed $1,800 HARMLS
• 2025-12-18 Listed for Rent $1,800 HARMLS
• 2025-12-11 Rental Removed $1,800 HARMLS
• 2025-11-22 Listed for Rent $1,800 HARMLS
• 2025-11-10 Listed $215,000 HARMLS
• 1992-01-02 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+7.7%/yr

Latest (2025): $5,578 · +8.7% YoY. Source: county tax records.