128 Bay Hill Dr · Winchester, KY 40391

$200,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,289 sqft · SingleFamily · 29 Days on market

Built 2003 9,147 sqft lot Est $169k · 18% over $33/mo HOA · 2% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +13.6/30.0
• DSCR +4.1/10.0
• Schools +3.0/10.0
• Livability +3.0/5.0
• 1% rule +2.9/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• ARV discount +0.0/15.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Opportunity knocks in Royal Oaks Village—be part of Winchester's next chapter. Located within the expanding Deerlawn development, this single-story ranch townhome offers incredible upside in an area poised for growth. With future plans bringing hundreds of new homes, townhomes, and duplexes nearby, this is your chance to get in early and build equity. Inside, you'll find a spacious and functional layout featuring a large primary suite with dual walk-in closets and a double vanity bath, two additional bedrooms, a second full bath, and a generously sized living area, an eat-in kitchen and a separate large utility room coming in from your attached two-car garage add everyday convenience. Major mechanical system update to the HVAC in 2023 and added attic insulation in 2019 for a strong foundation to build on. This home is ideal for buyers looking to personalize a space and create value. With a little vision and cosmetic updates, the potential here is undeniable. Whether you're a first-time buyer, investor, or someone looking to right-size with intention, this is a rare chance to secure a property priced to reflect opportunity—not perfection. Conveniently located just minutes from I-64, the Clark County Industrial Park, and an easy drive to Lexington or Mt. Sterling. Being sold as-is. Priced for a ready and able buyer so schedule your showing today and explore the possibilities. Please call listing agent for showing details.

Key facts

• Dual walk-in closets
• Eat-in kitchen
• Large primary suite

Tags

• SINGLE-STORY RANCH TOWNHOME
• LARGE PRIMARY SUITE
• DUAL WALK-IN CLOSETS
• DOUBLE VANITY BATH
• GENEROUSLY SIZED LIVING AREA
• EAT-IN KITCHEN

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: Has an association with annual fees

Exterior

• Parking: Attached garage; Driveway; Garage faces front; Property has a garage
• Utilities: Public sewer; Electricity connected; Sewer connected; Water connected
• Home design: Duplex; One level
• Construction: Brick veneer and vinyl siding; Block foundation; Shingle roof; Built area approximately 1,289
• Exterior features: Neighborhood view; Public water; Not on the waterfront

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Range; Microwave; Refrigerator; Eat-in kitchen
• Bedrooms: Primary bedroom located on the first floor
• Flooring: Carpet; Vinyl
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Electric heating; Electric cooling
• Interior features: Eat-in kitchen; Primary bedroom on the first floor; Ceiling fans; Blinds and window screens; Crawl space basement; No fireplace; Total of 8 rooms
• Laundry & utility: Washer and dryer included; Washer hookup; Electric dryer hookup; Gas dryer hookup; Main-level laundry

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $200k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $10 ($120/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $158k (21.0% below list).
• Recommended offer: $158k (21.0% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.4% vs local median 4.0% in Winchester — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 60/100 on livability (#393 in KY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, employment F.
• Clark County (town): math 28% / reading 41% proficiency, ranked #64 of 165 in KY (top 39%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Willis H. Justice Elementary School (math 27% / reading 27%, grade F, #434 of 676 statewide, top 69%, 427 students, 66% FRL); Robert D. Campbell Jr. High (math 28% / reading 47%, grade F, #73 of 217 statewide, top 36%, 820 students, 57% FRL).
• Market conditions: 291 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 160 units permitted in Clark County in 2024 (61 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Clark County population projected to shrink 7% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 29 days — a 2% lower offer ($197k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 6 sale attempts since 8y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $140k; 43% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.

Recommended offer $157,972 (21.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.79% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.35%
• Cash-on-cash: 0.21%
• DSCR: 1.01
• GRM: 10.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $168,859
• Comps found: 1

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
105 Bay Hill Dr	0.13mi	3/2.5	1,376 (+7%)	17mo	$180,000	$131	67

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -16.0%
• Equity multiple: 0.43×
• Total profit: $-31,835
• Equity at exit: $29,821

10-year hold

• IRR: -7.7%
• Equity multiple: 0.51×
• Total profit: $-27,162
• Equity at exit: $17,292

Cash invested: $56,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 83 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Kentucky: 83 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+16
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

7-day pay-or-quit (URLTA cities); generally landlord-friendly.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 40391

• Home prices YoY: -17.0%
• Active inventory: 291
• Price-to-rent: 10.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,580 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,049
• Tax from tax record: −$73 /mo · $874/yr
• Insurance: −$83
• HOA: −$33
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$332
• Net cashflow: $10

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,567

Max offer price $200,000

Occupancy floor 94%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $50,000
• Closing costs: $6,000
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
104 Pepperwood Ct Winchester, KY	3.0	2.0	1482	$1,400	$0.94	43d	1	0.20mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $33 · $396/yr

Listing history 32 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $200,000 Active 29 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $200,000 Active 28 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $200,000 Active 27 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $200,000 Active 26 DOM
5. 2026-06-14
   days on market $200,000 Active 24 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $200,000 Active 23 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   days on market $200,000 Active 21 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $200,000 Active 20 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $200,000 Active 19 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $200,000 Active 18 DOM
11. 2026-06-05
    days on market $200,000 Active 15 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $200,000 Active 14 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $200,000 Active 13 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $200,000 Active 12 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $200,000 Active 11 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $200,000 Active 10 DOM
17. 2026-05-19
    listed $200,000 Active
18. 2026-03-30
    status Active 1460-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1460 chars)

    Opportunity knocks in Royal Oaks Village—be part of Winchester's next chapter. Located within the expanding Deerlawn development, this single-story ranch townhome offers incredible upside in an area poised for growth. With future plans bringing hundreds of new homes, townhomes, and duplexes nearby, this is your chance to get in early and build equity. Inside, you'll find a spacious and functional layout featuring a large primary suite with dual walk-in closets and a double vanity bath, two additional bedrooms, a second full bath, and a generously sized living area, an eat-in kitchen and a separate large utility room coming in from your attached two-car garage add everyday convenience. Major mechanical system update to the HVAC in 2023 and added attic insulation in 2019 for a strong foundation to build on. This home is ideal for buyers looking to personalize a space and create value. With a little vision and cosmetic updates, the potential here is undeniable. Whether you're a first-time buyer, investor, or someone looking to right-size with intention, this is a rare chance to secure a property priced to reflect opportunity—not perfection. Conveniently located just minutes from I-64, the Clark County Industrial Park, and an easy drive to Lexington or Mt. Sterling. Being sold as-is. Priced for a ready and able buyer so schedule your showing today and explore the possibilities. Please call listing agent for showing details.

19. 2026-03-19
    status Pending 1460-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1460 chars)

    Opportunity knocks in Royal Oaks Village—be part of Winchester's next chapter. Located within the expanding Deerlawn development, this single-story ranch townhome offers incredible upside in an area poised for growth. With future plans bringing hundreds of new homes, townhomes, and duplexes nearby, this is your chance to get in early and build equity. Inside, you'll find a spacious and functional layout featuring a large primary suite with dual walk-in closets and a double vanity bath, two additional bedrooms, a second full bath, and a generously sized living area, an eat-in kitchen and a separate large utility room coming in from your attached two-car garage add everyday convenience. Major mechanical system update to the HVAC in 2023 and added attic insulation in 2019 for a strong foundation to build on. This home is ideal for buyers looking to personalize a space and create value. With a little vision and cosmetic updates, the potential here is undeniable. Whether you're a first-time buyer, investor, or someone looking to right-size with intention, this is a rare chance to secure a property priced to reflect opportunity—not perfection. Conveniently located just minutes from I-64, the Clark County Industrial Park, and an easy drive to Lexington or Mt. Sterling. Being sold as-is. Priced for a ready and able buyer so schedule your showing today and explore the possibilities. Please call listing agent for showing details.

20. 2026-03-17
    listed $200,000 Active 1460-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1460 chars)

    Opportunity knocks in Royal Oaks Village—be part of Winchester's next chapter. Located within the expanding Deerlawn development, this single-story ranch townhome offers incredible upside in an area poised for growth. With future plans bringing hundreds of new homes, townhomes, and duplexes nearby, this is your chance to get in early and build equity. Inside, you'll find a spacious and functional layout featuring a large primary suite with dual walk-in closets and a double vanity bath, two additional bedrooms, a second full bath, and a generously sized living area, an eat-in kitchen and a separate large utility room coming in from your attached two-car garage add everyday convenience. Major mechanical system update to the HVAC in 2023 and added attic insulation in 2019 for a strong foundation to build on. This home is ideal for buyers looking to personalize a space and create value. With a little vision and cosmetic updates, the potential here is undeniable. Whether you're a first-time buyer, investor, or someone looking to right-size with intention, this is a rare chance to secure a property priced to reflect opportunity—not perfection. Conveniently located just minutes from I-64, the Clark County Industrial Park, and an easy drive to Lexington or Mt. Sterling. Being sold as-is. Priced for a ready and able buyer so schedule your showing today and explore the possibilities. Please call listing agent for showing details.

21. 2021-02-24
    historical 231-char remark

    Show marketing remark (231 chars)

    Come see this 3 bedroom, 2 bathroom home while you can! With Over sized 2 car garage, spacious living spaces, large master bedroom with on-suite and his and hers closets, this home has so much to offer. Schedule your showing today!

22. 2021-02-23
    soldstatus $140,000 Sold 231-char remark

    Show marketing remark (231 chars)

    Come see this 3 bedroom, 2 bathroom home while you can! With Over sized 2 car garage, spacious living spaces, large master bedroom with on-suite and his and hers closets, this home has so much to offer. Schedule your showing today!

23. 2021-02-23
    soldstatus $140,000

    Show marketing remark (231 chars)

    Come see this 3 bedroom, 2 bathroom home while you can! With Over sized 2 car garage, spacious living spaces, large master bedroom with on-suite and his and hers closets, this home has so much to offer. Schedule your showing today!

24. 2021-01-09
    status Pending 231-char remark

    Show marketing remark (231 chars)

    Come see this 3 bedroom, 2 bathroom home while you can! With Over sized 2 car garage, spacious living spaces, large master bedroom with on-suite and his and hers closets, this home has so much to offer. Schedule your showing today!

25. 2020-12-28
    status Active 231-char remark

    Show marketing remark (231 chars)

    Come see this 3 bedroom, 2 bathroom home while you can! With Over sized 2 car garage, spacious living spaces, large master bedroom with on-suite and his and hers closets, this home has so much to offer. Schedule your showing today!

26. 2020-12-15
    status Pending 231-char remark

    Show marketing remark (231 chars)

    Come see this 3 bedroom, 2 bathroom home while you can! With Over sized 2 car garage, spacious living spaces, large master bedroom with on-suite and his and hers closets, this home has so much to offer. Schedule your showing today!

27. 2020-12-11
    listed $141,900 Active 231-char remark

    Show marketing remark (231 chars)

    Come see this 3 bedroom, 2 bathroom home while you can! With Over sized 2 car garage, spacious living spaces, large master bedroom with on-suite and his and hers closets, this home has so much to offer. Schedule your showing today!

28. 2018-03-28
    soldstatus $115,000 Sold
29. 2018-03-28
    soldstatus $115,000
30. 2018-02-22
    status Pending
31. 2018-01-07
    listed $117,000 Active
32. 2004-05-19
    soldstatus $105,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast KY · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $874 · $73/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,720 · $143/mo
• Expected delta: +$846/yr (+$71/mo · 96.9%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 4/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥101°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 3/10 Moderate 5% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $18,957
• − Mortgage interest: −$11,203
• − Property taxes: −$874
• − Insurance: −$1,000
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,517
• − Management: −$1,517
• − HOA: −$396
• − Depreciation: −$5,818
• Taxable loss: −$3,367
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$808
• After-tax cash flow: $928/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Clark County
• NCES district ID: 2101200
• Math proficiency: 28% ▼ -25.00%
• Reading proficiency: 41% ▼ -18.00%
• Median HH income: $47,282
• Composite: 29.63/100
• National rank: #6469
• State rank: #64 of 165 in KY

Livability — Winchester

• Score: 60/100
• State rank: #393
• US rank: #18931

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime C+ Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Winchester, KY
• County: Clark County · 36,796 people
• City population: 36,796
• Metro: Lexington-Fayette, KY
• Population (ZIP): 36,796
• Household income: $64,144
• Rent vs Own: 29.4% rent · 70.6% own
• Severe rent burden: 854.0

Population outlook (Clark County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 35,849 people
• By 2030: 35,616 · -0.6%
• By 2040: 34,727 · -3.1%
• By 2050: 33,195 · -7.4%
• By 2075: 29,439 · -17.9%
• By 2100: 24,744 · -31.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (88%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 88% Black 4% Hispanic / Latino 4% Two or more races 3%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 3% Italian 2% Serbian 2%
• Foreign-born: 2% · Canada
• Languages at home: 97% English-only · Spanish 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Clark

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+35.3) · D 31.6% · R 66.9% · Other 1.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: -10.3pp toward R · 2008: -25.1pp · 2024: -35.3pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+35.3 2020: R+32.0 2016: R+37.1 2012: R+30.5 2008: R+25.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -58.24%
• Current HPI: 283.7839
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Lexington-Fayette, KY
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.81%
• F500 in state: 4

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in KY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	1	$118B
▸Food / Beverage	1	$7B

Price history

+90.5% since first listed

16 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-19 Listed $200,000 ImagineMLS
• 2026-03-30 Relisted — ImagineMLS
• 2026-03-19 Pending — ImagineMLS
• 2026-03-17 Listed $200,000 ImagineMLS
• 2021-02-24 Listing Removed — ImagineMLS
• 2021-02-23 Sold (Public Records) $140,000 Public Records
• 2021-02-23 Sold (MLS) $140,000 ImagineMLS
• 2021-01-09 Pending — ImagineMLS
• 2020-12-28 Relisted — ImagineMLS
• 2020-12-15 Pending — ImagineMLS
• 2020-12-11 Listed $141,900 ImagineMLS
• 2018-03-28 Sold (Public Records) $115,000 Public Records
• 2018-03-28 Sold (MLS) $115,000 ImagineMLS
• 2018-02-22 Pending — ImagineMLS
• 2018-01-07 Listed $117,000 ImagineMLS
• 2004-05-19 Sold (Public Records) $105,000 Public Records

Property tax history

-0.4%/yr

Latest (2025): $874 · -5.2% YoY. Source: county tax records.