15 E 1st St · West Freehold, NJ 07731

$300,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 920 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 15 Days on market

Built 1970 9,583 sqft lot Est $418k · 28% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +22.3/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +7.1/10.0
• 1% rule +6.2/10.0
• Schools +3.9/10.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• Rent growth +2.9/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

2 BEDROOM, 2 BATH HOUSE W/ FINISHED BASEMENT, being sold as is . LARGE BACKYARD, CONVENIENT TO 195, ROUT 9, PARKS AND SHOPPING. ,SOLD IN AS IS CONDITION, CERT. OF OCC BUYER'S RESPONSIBILITY.

Key facts

• Hardwood flooring
• Separate entrance
• Backyard patio

Tags

• HARDWOOD FLOORING
• PULL-DOWN ATTIC ACCESS
• SEPARATE ENTRANCE
• SECOND KITCHEN
• LARGE WOODED PROPERTY
• BACKYARD PATIO

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $300k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $494 ($6k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($3k rent vs $300k).
• Recommended offer: $296k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 8.3% vs local median 2.6% in West Freehold — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#173 in NJ, #4,542 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, cost of living F.
• Howell Township Public School District (suburban): math 30% / reading 52% proficiency, ranked #195 of 472 in NJ (top 41%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; only 12% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.5%/yr); 331 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; high-income renter base; 2,840 units permitted in Monmouth County in 2024 (484 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 30% of the median local income ($134k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $9k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Monmouth County population projected at -11% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 15 days — a 2% lower offer ($296k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 16y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $350k (54%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $152k; list at $300k implies a 97% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 56% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→15/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $295,500 (1.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1970 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.12% ✓
• Cap rate: 8.27%
• Cash-on-cash: 7.06%
• DSCR: 1.31
• GRM: 7.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $417,680
• Comps found: 10

Show comp detail 10 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
18 E 3rd St	0.20mi	3/2.0	1,008 (+10%)	0mo	$502,000	$498	74
10 E 3rd St	0.21mi	2/2.0 (-1)	949 (+3%)	14mo	$325	—	68
79 Frederick Ave	0.19mi	2/1.0 (-1)	812 (-12%)	6mo	$380,000	$468	58
11 E 2nd St	0.08mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,008 (+10%)	22mo	$456,000	$452	57
132 W 2nd St	0.25mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,045 (+14%)	5mo	$400,000	$383	56
123 W 4th St	0.35mi	3/1.0	1,040 (+13%)	4mo	$480,000	$462	55
131 W 3rd St	0.31mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,020 (+11%)	10mo	$463,000	$454	54
44 E 3rd St	0.25mi	2/1.0 (-1)	800 (-13%)	5mo	$398,000	$498	53
434 Georgia Tavern Rd	0.62mi	2/1.0 (-1)	864 (-6%)	10mo	$355,450	$411	43
22 Smith St	0.65mi	3/1.0	1,036 (+13%)	22mo	$421,000	$406	26

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 1.52% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -7.2%
• Equity multiple: 0.74×
• Total profit: $-21,990
• Equity at exit: $44,731

10-year hold

• IRR: 0.4%
• Equity multiple: 1.03×
• Total profit: $2,114
• Equity at exit: $25,939

Cash invested: $84,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 21 Tenant-Leaning
• State New Jersey: 21 Tenant-Leaning · D+6
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Anti-eviction Act requires just-cause statewide; rent control in 100+ municipalities; one of the most tenant-friendly states.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 07731

• Rents YoY: 1.5%
• Active inventory: 331
• Price-to-rent: 7.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $3,367 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,573
• Tax from tax record: −$468 /mo · $5,615/yr
• Insurance: −$125
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$707
• Net cashflow: $494

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,742

Max offer price $300,000

Occupancy floor 80%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $75,000
• Closing costs: $9,000
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 2 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
633 Hulses Corner Rd Howell, NJ	3.0	1.0	1088	$3,100	$2.85	1d	1	0.63mi
15 N American Dr Howell Township, NJ	3.0	1.0	753	$2,899	$3.85	1d	7	1.16mi

Listing history 13 events

1. 2026-06-07
   statusdays on market $300,000 Pending 15 DOM
2. 2026-06-04
   days on market $300,000 Active 14 DOM
3. 2026-06-03
   days on market $300,000 Active 13 DOM
4. 2026-06-02
   days on market $300,000 Active 12 DOM
5. 2026-06-01
   days on market $300,000 Active 11 DOM
6. 2026-05-31
   days on market $300,000 Active 10 DOM
7. 2026-05-13
   price $599,999 191-char remark

   Show marketing remark (191 chars)

   2 BEDROOM, 2 BATH HOUSE W/ FINISHED BASEMENT, being sold as is . LARGE BACKYARD, CONVENIENT TO 195, ROUT 9, PARKS AND SHOPPING. ,SOLD IN AS IS CONDITION, CERT. OF OCC BUYER'S RESPONSIBILITY.

8. 2026-05-12
   listed $650,000 Active 191-char remark

   Show marketing remark (191 chars)

   2 BEDROOM, 2 BATH HOUSE W/ FINISHED BASEMENT, being sold as is . LARGE BACKYARD, CONVENIENT TO 195, ROUT 9, PARKS AND SHOPPING. ,SOLD IN AS IS CONDITION, CERT. OF OCC BUYER'S RESPONSIBILITY.

9. 2010-06-09
   soldstatus $151,900 206-char remark

   Show marketing remark (206 chars)

   LOVELY 2 BEDROOM, 2 BATH HOUSE W/FINISHED BASEMENT, MOVE-IN CONDITION. LARGE BACKYARD, CONVENIENT TO 195, ROUT 9, PARKS AND SHOPPING. BANK OWNED,SOLD IN AS IS CONDITION, CERT. OF OCC BUYER'S RESPONSIBILITY.

10. 2010-02-16
    listed $156,200 206-char remark

    Show marketing remark (206 chars)

    LOVELY 2 BEDROOM, 2 BATH HOUSE W/FINISHED BASEMENT, MOVE-IN CONDITION. LARGE BACKYARD, CONVENIENT TO 195, ROUT 9, PARKS AND SHOPPING. BANK OWNED,SOLD IN AS IS CONDITION, CERT. OF OCC BUYER'S RESPONSIBILITY.

11. 2005-08-16
    soldstatus $275,000
12. 1992-05-29
    soldstatus $98,000
13. 1982-06-04
    soldstatus $70,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NJ · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $5,615 · $468/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $6,542 · $545/mo
• Expected delta: +$928/yr (+$77/mo · 16.5%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 2/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥100°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 56% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 4/10 Moderate 4 unhealthy d/yr today · 5 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $40,405
• − Mortgage interest: −$16,805
• − Property taxes: −$5,615
• − Insurance: −$1,500
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$3,232
• − Management: −$3,232
• − Depreciation: −$8,727
• Taxable income: $1,294
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$311
• After-tax cash flow: $5,616/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Howell Township Public School District
• NCES district ID: 3407560
• Math proficiency: 30% ▼ -26.00%
• Reading proficiency: 52% ▼ -16.00%
• Median HH income: $93,085
• Composite: 39.35/100
• National rank: #3979
• State rank: #195 of 472 in NJ

Livability — West Freehold

• Score: 74/100
• State rank: #173
• US rank: #4542

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living F Crime A Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Monmouth County · 505,557 people
• City population: 56,623
• Metro: New York-Newark-Jersey City, NY-NJ-PA
• Population (ZIP): 40,322
• Household income: $134,056
• Rent vs Own: 11.7% rent · 88.3% own
• Severe rent burden: 590.0

Population outlook (Monmouth County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 620,308 people
• By 2030: 612,309 · -1.3%
• By 2040: 587,297 · -5.3%
• By 2050: 551,342 · -11.1%
• By 2075: 472,934 · -23.8%
• By 2100: 381,534 · -38.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (73%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 73% Hispanic / Latino 16% Two or more races 10% Black 4% Asian 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 3% Puerto Rican 5% Cuban 1% Dominican 2%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 6% Scotch-Irish 2% Lithuanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 13% · Canada, Jamaica, China
• Languages at home: 83% English-only · Spanish 10% Other Indo-European 2% Russian/Polish/Slavic 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Monmouth

• 2024 margin: R (+11.4) · D 43.4% · R 54.8% · Other 1.8%
• 2008→2024 swing: -7.7pp toward R · 2008: -3.7pp · 2024: -11.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+11.4 2020: R+2.8 2016: R+9.5 2012: R+5.5 2008: R+3.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -303.76%
• Current HPI: 375.492
• Rent YoY: ▲ 1.52%
• Metro: New York-Newark-Jersey City, NY-NJ-PA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.05%
• F500 in state: 34

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NJ)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Consumer Goods	3	$31B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$153B
▸Technology	2	$21B
▸Insurance	2	$20B
▸Healthcare	2	$19B
▸Financial Services	1	$70B

Price history

+757.1% since first listed

7 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-13 Price Changed $599,999 FSBO.com
• 2026-05-12 Listed $650,000 FSBO.com
• 2010-06-09 Sold (MLS) $151,900 MOMLS
• 2010-02-16 Listed $156,200 MOMLS
• 2005-08-16 Sold (Public Records) $275,000 Public Records
• 1992-05-29 Sold (Public Records) $98,000 Public Records
• 1982-06-04 Sold (Public Records) $70,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+2.0%/yr

Latest (2025): $5,615 · +7.3% YoY. Source: county tax records.