632 Timberlake Dr · The College of New Jersey, NJ 08618

$171,250

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,464 sqft · Condo public records · 26 Days on market

Built 2012 $389/mo HOA · 16% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +18.7/30.0
• 1% rule +9.5/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• DSCR +5.9/10.0
• Rent growth +3.2/5.0
• Schools +2.5/10.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

* * Low income unit * * see agent remarks for details. 3 bedroom 2 full bath condo located in The Jefferson community. Updated kitchen with formal dining area, and living room overlooking the balcony. Nice size rooms and plenty of closest space in this home. Community amenities are pool, gym and clubhouse. Make your appointment today.

Key facts

• $389 HOA
• Community pool
• Built 2012

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath condo listed at $171k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $171 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $171k).
• Recommended offer: $169k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 7.5% vs local median 3.4% in The College of New Jersey — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade C — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Ewing Township School District (suburban): math 16% / reading 37% proficiency, ranked #358 of 472 in NJ (top 76%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.6%/yr); 144 active listings in the ZIP; 4 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 21d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 2,256 units permitted in Mercer County in 2024 (1,303 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $2,483/mo this rent would consume 59% of the median local household income ($50k/yr) (locally 2116% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Mercer County population projected at +4% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 26 days — a 2% lower offer ($169k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts since 10y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: property tax is 3.0% of price.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 27% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→15/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $168,681 (1.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Any open or pending special assessments — roof, HVAC, plumbing, elevator, façade? What's the per-unit balance and payoff schedule, and is the seller paying it off at close or rolling it to the buyer?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.45% ✓
• Cap rate: 7.49%
• Cash-on-cash: 4.27%
• DSCR: 1.19
• GRM: 5.7

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 2.6% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -10.0%
• Equity multiple: 0.64×
• Total profit: $-17,474
• Equity at exit: $25,534

10-year hold

• IRR: -1.1%
• Equity multiple: 0.92×
• Total profit: $-3,614
• Equity at exit: $14,807

Cash invested: $47,950 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 21 Tenant-Leaning
• State New Jersey: 21 Tenant-Leaning · D+6
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Anti-eviction Act requires just-cause statewide; rent control in 100+ municipalities; one of the most tenant-friendly states.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 08618

• Rents YoY: 2.6%
• Active inventory: 144
• Price-to-rent: 5.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,483 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$898
• Tax from tax record: −$432 /mo · $5,189/yr
• Insurance: −$71
• HOA: −$389
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$521
• Net cashflow: $171

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,267

Max offer price $171,250

Occupancy floor 88%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $42,812
• Closing costs: $5,138
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 4 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
232 Masterson Ct Trenton, NJ	2.0	2.0	1484	$2,400	$1.62	13d	1	0.42mi
74 Kyle Way Ewing Township, NJ	2.0	2.0	1253	$2,400	$1.92	21d	1	1.03mi
25 Diverty Rd Pennington, NJ	2.0	1.0	1370	$2,400	$1.75	21d	1	1.08mi
5202 Mary Ashby Way Pennington, NJ	2.0	2.0	1250	$2,700	$2.16	21d	1	1.22mi

HOA detail condo

• Monthly dues: $389 · $4,668/yr
• Likely covers: poolgym
• Assessments: None detected in remarks — confirm with the listing agent.

Listing history 6 events

1. 2026-01-06
   status Pending
2. 2025-12-11
   listed $171,250 Active
3. 2023-09-29
   historical $2,200
4. 2023-09-08
   listed $2,200
5. 2017-02-04
   historical
6. 2016-08-04
   listed $126,990

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NJ · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $5,189 · $432/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $5,189 · $432/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥102°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 27% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 4/10 Moderate 4 unhealthy d/yr today · 5 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $29,793
• − Mortgage interest: −$9,593
• − Property taxes: −$5,189
• − Insurance: −$856
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,383
• − Management: −$2,383
• − HOA: −$4,668
• − Depreciation: −$4,982
• Taxable loss: −$262
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$63
• After-tax cash flow: $2,109/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Ewing Township School District
• NCES district ID: 3404920
• Math proficiency: 16% ▼ -17.00%
• Reading proficiency: 37% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $73,684
• Composite: 25.48/100
• National rank: #7443
• State rank: #358 of 472 in NJ

Livability — The College of New Jersey

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• County: Mercer County · 327,655 people
• Metro: Trenton-Princeton, NJ
• Population (ZIP): 35,634
• Household income: $50,390
• Rent vs Own: 54.2% rent · 45.8% own
• Severe rent burden: 2116.0

Population outlook (Mercer County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 381,395 people
• By 2030: 384,640 · +0.9%
• By 2040: 391,431 · +2.6%
• By 2050: 397,845 · +4.3%
• By 2075: 417,281 · +9.4%
• By 2100: 420,327 · +10.2%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.59)
• Race & ethnicity: Black 59% White 19% Hispanic / Latino 16% Two or more races 7% Asian 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 1% Puerto Rican 6% Dominican 3%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 2% Hispanic 1% Scotch-Irish 1%
• Foreign-born: 14% · Canada, China, South Korea
• Languages at home: 80% English-only · Spanish 10% Other Indo-European 3% Arabic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Mercer

• 2024 margin: Solid D (+33.9) · D 65.9% · R 32.0% · Other 2.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: -2.2pp toward R · 2008: 36.1pp · 2024: 33.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+33.9 2020: D+40.0 2016: D+36.2 2012: D+36.8 2008: D+36.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -309.54%
• Current HPI: 288.6841
• Rent YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• Metro: Trenton-Princeton, NJ
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.05%
• F500 in state: 34

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NJ)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Consumer Goods	3	$31B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$153B
▸Technology	2	$21B
▸Insurance	2	$20B
▸Healthcare	2	$19B
▸Financial Services	1	$70B

Price history

+34.9% since first listed

6 events — show timeline

• 2026-01-06 Pending — BRIGHT MLS
• 2025-12-11 Listed $171,250 BRIGHT MLS
• 2023-09-29 Rental Removed $2,200 BRIGHTMLS
• 2023-09-08 Listed for Rent $2,200 BRIGHTMLS
• 2017-02-04 Listing Removed — BRIGHT MLS
• 2016-08-04 Listed $126,990 BRIGHT MLS

Property tax history

+2.4%/yr

Latest (2025): $5,189 · +3.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.