16461 SE Hearthwood Dr #52 · Oatfield, OR 97015

$79,900

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,350 sqft · Condo · 2 Days on market

Built 1989

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Livability +4.0/5.0
• Schools +3.2/10.0
• Rent growth +3.1/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Cute MFH with potential! Cozy 2 bdrm, 1 ba home on a treed lot. Bring your paint, and new fixtures and this home will SHINE! Located in a very desirable Family Community well maintained with established trees. Space rent is $765 Monthly. Very Motivated seller. Cash only sale in as is condition. Buyer to take on park resale prior to possession. Bring me an offer!!

Key facts

• Wooded lot
• Center island
• Built 1989

Tags

• PRIVATE SECLUDED OASIS
• WOODED LOT
• OPEN LIVING AND DINING ROOM
• PREMIUM HIGH-END CABINETRY
• CENTER ISLAND
• UPDATED PRIMARY SUITE

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Park name: Hearthwood Village MHC; Not a senior community
• Financial info: Land lease applies (monthly lot rent); Land lease expiration March 31, 2027
• HOA & community: Community management and utilities handled by association; Located in Hearthwood Village MHC (land lease community)

Exterior

• Parking: Carport; Off-street parking
• Security: Entry security features
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; Electric service; Internet service (other)
• Home design: Manufactured home in a park; Residential property; Updated/remodeled condition; Single-story living (main level); Built in 1989
• Construction: Composition roof; Block foundation
• Exterior features: Yard; Wood composite exterior; Level and wooded lot; Concrete road access; Trees/woods view

Interior

• Kitchen: Built-in oven; Built-in refrigerator; Dishwasher; Kitchen island; Stainless steel appliances
• Bedrooms: Primary bedroom on main level; Second bedroom on main level
• Flooring: Luxury vinyl plank; Vinyl flooring
• Bathrooms: One full bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Forced air heating; Central air conditioning; Electric hot water
• Interior features: High ceilings; Vaulted ceiling(s); Luxury vinyl plank and vinyl flooring; Double-pane windows; Laundry area; Washer and dryer included; Accessible approach with ramp; Ground level and utility room on main; Walk-in shower; Crawl space basement
• Laundry & utility: Washer and dryer included; Utility room on main level

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath condo listed at $80k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $980 ($12k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $80k).
• Cap rate 21.0% vs local median 2.6% in Oatfield — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 81/100 on livability (#49 in OR, #1,363 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: commute A+, employment A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities D, cost of living F.
• North Clackamas SD 12 (suburban): math 29% / reading 43% proficiency, ranked #22 of 58 in OR (top 38%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Clackamas High School (math 52% / reading 67%, grade C+, #23 of 143 statewide, top 19%, 1,224 students, 27% FRL).
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 60% at this address vs 36% district-wide (+24 pts) — the actual schools serving this property are materially stronger than the North Clackamas SD 12 average implies; a family-tenant draw the district grade alone would hide.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.5%/yr); 120 active listings in the ZIP; 5 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 8d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 946 units permitted in Clackamas County in 2024 (188 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $552 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Clackamas County population projected at +25% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 2.5% rent growth), your $22k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• Only 2 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 3 sale attempts since 5y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $55k; 45% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.

Recommended offer $79,900

Questions for the listing agent

1. Any open or pending special assessments — roof, HVAC, plumbing, elevator, façade? What's the per-unit balance and payoff schedule, and is the seller paying it off at close or rolling it to the buyer?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
4. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
5. How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 2.37% ✓
• Cap rate: 21.01%
• Cash-on-cash: 52.55%
• DSCR: 3.34
• GRM: 3.5

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 2.48% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 50.0%
• Equity multiple: 3.17×
• Total profit: $48,473
• Equity at exit: $11,913

10-year hold

• IRR: 55.2%
• Equity multiple: 6.30×
• Total profit: $118,582
• Equity at exit: $6,908

Cash invested: $22,372 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 28 Tenant-Leaning
• State Oregon: 28 Tenant-Leaning · D+6
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

SB608 (2019): statewide rent cap (7% + CPI) and just-cause for tenancies > 1 yr. Portland has relocation assistance ordinance.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 97015

• Rents YoY: 2.5%
• Active inventory: 120
• Price-to-rent: 3.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,891 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$419
• Tax from tax record: −$62 /mo · $740/yr
• Insurance: −$33
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$397
• Net cashflow: $980

Break-even live

Break-even rent $651

Max offer price $79,900

Occupancy floor 43%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $1,025	-5% $1,002	+0% $980	+5% $957	+10% $934
Rent	-10% $830	-5% $905	+0% $980	+5% $1,054	+10% $1,129
Rate	-1.0pp $1,020	-0.5pp $1,000	base $980	+0.5pp $959	+1.0pp $938

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $19,975
• Closing costs: $2,397
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 5 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
16751 SE 82nd Dr Clackamas, OR	2.0	1.0–1.5	712	$1,795	$2.52	22d	8	0.20mi
16500 SE 82nd Dr Clackamas, OR	2.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1006	$1,637	$1.63	8d	4	0.29mi
18181 Webster Rd Gladstone, OR	3.0	1.0–2.0	771	$2,072	$2.69	8d	11	0.99mi
8106 SE Lake Rd Portland, OR	2.0	1.0–2.0	708	$1,622	$2.29	4d	15	1.27mi
17112 SE Jade Ct Portland, OR	3.0	2.0	1514	$3,400	$2.25	2d	1	1.32mi

HOA detail condo

• Monthly dues: $0 · $0/yr
• Assessments: None detected in remarks — confirm with the listing agent.

Listing history 3 events

1. 2026-06-03
   days on market $79,900 Active 2 DOM
2. 2026-06-01
   remarks 699-char remark
3. 2026-06-01
   listed $79,900 Active 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast OR · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $740 · $62/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $775 · $65/mo
• Expected delta: +$35/yr (+$3/mo · 4.8%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥93°F today · 14 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 10/10 Extreme 18 unhealthy d/yr today · 20 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $22,689
• − Mortgage interest: −$4,476
• − Property taxes: −$740
• − Insurance: −$400
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,815
• − Management: −$1,815
• − Depreciation: −$2,324
• Taxable income: $11,119
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$2,669
• After-tax cash flow: $9,088/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: North Clackamas SD 12
• NCES district ID: 4108830
• Math proficiency: 29% ▼ -14.00%
• Reading proficiency: 43% ▼ -13.00%
• Median HH income: $60,217
• Composite: 32.1/100
• National rank: #5807
• State rank: #22 of 58 in OR

Livability — Oatfield

• Score: 81/100
• State rank: #49
• US rank: #1363

Category grades

Amenities D Commute A+ Cost of living F Crime A- Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings C

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Oatfield, OR
• County: Clackamas County · 361,406 people
• City population: 31,160
• Metro: Portland-Vancouver-Hillsboro, OR-WA
• Population (ZIP): 24,433
• Household income: $87,333
• Rent vs Own: 36.0% rent · 64.0% own
• Severe rent burden: 1166.0

Population outlook (Clackamas County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 458,456 people
• By 2030: 485,185 · +5.8%
• By 2040: 532,932 · +16.2%
• By 2050: 574,445 · +25.3%
• By 2075: 665,497 · +45.2%
• By 2100: 697,488 · +52.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (66%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 66% Hispanic / Latino 15% Two or more races 12% Asian 11% Black 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 13%
• Common ancestry: Italian 4% Scotch-Irish 4% Lithuanian 3%
• Foreign-born: 15% · Canada, China, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 74% English-only · Spanish 11% Chinese 5% Russian/Polish/Slavic 3%

Political lean MEDSL · Clackamas

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+9.7) · D 53.4% · R 43.6% · Other 3.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -0.6pp no change · 2008: 10.4pp · 2024: 9.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+9.7 2020: D+11.1 2016: D+6.1 2012: D+3.5 2008: D+10.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -170.50%
• Current HPI: 295.7295
• Rent YoY: ▲ 2.48%
• Metro: Portland-Vancouver-Hillsboro, OR-WA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.05%
• F500 in state: 2

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in OR)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Consumer Goods	1	$51B

Price history

+3.1% since first listed

9 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-01 Listed $79,900 RMLS
• 2021-09-01 Sold (MLS) $55,000 RMLS
• 2021-08-25 Pending — RMLS
• 2021-08-16 Relisted — RMLS
• 2021-08-16 Price Changed $59,000 RMLS
• 2021-08-07 Pending — RMLS
• 2021-08-06 Price Changed $65,000 RMLS
• 2021-07-08 Price Changed $69,900 RMLS
• 2021-06-14 Listed $77,500 RMLS

Property tax history

+4.9%/yr

Latest (2025): $740 · +6.6% YoY. Source: county tax records.