811 S Tilden · Midland, TX 79701

$254,000

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,446 sqft · SingleFamily · 25 Days on market

Built 2018 4,922 sqft lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +14.0/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• DSCR +4.2/10.0
• Livability +4.0/5.0
• 1% rule +3.5/10.0
• Schools +3.2/10.0
• Rent growth +2.7/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

4 bedroom 2 bath home is just waiting for you to move in! Appliances stay. Easy access to l20 and it is in Greenwood school district. Mk an appoint to see today!

Key facts

• 4,922 sq ft lot
• Built 2018
• Listed 25 days

Property features AI

Exterior

• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer
• Home design: Single family residence; 1 story; Brick veneer construction; Slab foundation
• Exterior features: Patio; Wood fencing; Composition roof

Interior

• Kitchen: Oven; Microwave; Refrigerator
• Flooring: Vinyl
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating; Central air; Ceiling fan(s)
• Interior features: Pantry; Smoke detector(s)
• Laundry & utility: Gas water heater

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $254k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $30 ($364/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $215k (15.3% below list).
• Recommended offer: $215k (15.3% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.4% vs local median 4.7% in Midland — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 79/100 on livability (#57 in TX, #2,192 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: crime C-, commute D+, amenities D.
• Midland ISD (urban): math 34% / reading 36% proficiency, ranked #477 of 826 in TX (top 58%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Ralph Bunche El (math 22% / reading 17%, grade F, #3,583 of 4,322 statewide, top 86%, 974 students, 88% FRL, charter); Goddard J H (math 23% / reading 32%, grade F, #1,156 of 1,662 statewide, top 71%, 1,024 students, 58% FRL, charter); Midland H S (math 37% / reading 7%, grade F, #1,366 of 1,632 statewide, top 84%, 2,492 students, 44% FRL).
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 23% at this address vs 35% district-wide (-12 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the Midland ISD average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 114 active listings in the ZIP; 8 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 46d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 50% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 1,504 units permitted in Midland County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $2,152/mo this rent would consume 45% of the median local household income ($57k/yr) (locally 938% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Midland County population projected at +83% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 25 days — a 2% lower offer ($250k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts since 2y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→22/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $215,185 (15.3% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
2. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
3. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
4. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
5. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.85% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.44%
• Cash-on-cash: 0.51%
• DSCR: 1.02
• GRM: 9.8

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.74% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -17.9%
• Equity multiple: 0.38×
• Total profit: $-44,031
• Equity at exit: $37,872

10-year hold

• IRR: -15.0%
• Equity multiple: 0.23×
• Total profit: $-54,701
• Equity at exit: $21,961

Cash invested: $71,120 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 79701

• Rents YoY: 0.7%
• Active inventory: 114
• Price-to-rent: 9.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,152 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,332
• Tax from tax record: −$232 /mo · $2,781/yr
• Insurance: −$106
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$452
• Net cashflow: $30

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,113

Max offer price $254,000

Occupancy floor 94%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $174	-5% $102	+0% $30	+5% $-42	+10% $-113
Rent	-10% $-140	-5% $-55	+0% $30	+5% $115	+10% $200
Rate	-1.0pp $158	-0.5pp $95	base $30	+0.5pp $-35	+1.0pp $-102

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $63,500
• Closing costs: $7,620
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 8 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1910 E California Ave Midland, TX	3.0	1.0	1250	$1,800	$1.44	45d	1	0.05mi
808 S Madison St Midland, TX	3.0	1.0	1000	$2,000	$2.00	45d	1	0.44mi
1509 Wayside Dr Midland, TX	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	980	$1,292	$1.32	45d	1	0.61mi
302 N Carver St Midland, TX	3.0	2.0	1569	$2,500	$1.59	23d	1	0.79mi
1201 Albert Midland, TX	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1037	$2,174	$2.10	15d	20	0.82mi
1200 Albert Midland, TX	3.0	2.0	925	$2,442	$2.64	15d	311	0.89mi
805 S Weatherford St Midland, TX	3.0	2.0	1368	$1,300	$0.95	23d	1	1.15mi
2703 S County Road 1180 Midland, TX	3.0	2.0	1566	$3,400	$2.17	45d	1	1.47mi

Listing history 24 events

1. 2026-06-22
   days on market $254,000 Active 25 DOM
2. 2026-06-19
   days on market $254,000 Active 23 DOM
3. 2026-06-18
   days on market $254,000 Active 22 DOM
4. 2026-06-17
   days on market $254,000 Active 21 DOM
5. 2026-06-16
   days on market $254,000 Active 20 DOM
6. 2026-06-15
   days on market $254,000 Active 19 DOM
7. 2026-06-14
   days on market $254,000 Active 17 DOM
8. 2026-06-13
   days on market $254,000 Active 16 DOM
9. 2026-06-10
   days on market $254,000 Active 14 DOM
10. 2026-06-09
    days on market $254,000 Active 13 DOM
11. 2026-06-08
    days on market $254,000 Active 12 DOM
12. 2026-06-07
    days on market $254,000 Active 11 DOM
13. 2026-06-03
    days on market $254,000 Active 7 DOM
14. 2026-06-02
    days on market $254,000 Active 6 DOM
15. 2026-06-01
    days on market $254,000 Active 5 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $254,000 Active 4 DOM
17. 2026-05-30
    days on market $254,000 Active 3 DOM
18. 2026-05-27
    listed $254,000 Active
19. 2024-09-24
    historical $1,950
20. 2024-09-22
    listed $1,950
21. 2024-09-16
    historical $1,950
22. 2024-08-26
    listed $1,950
23. 2023-07-05
    soldstatus
24. 2019-01-29
    soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,781 · $232/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $4,648 · $387/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,867/yr (+$156/mo · 67.1%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 9/10 Extreme
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥102°F today · 22 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 4% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $25,822
• − Mortgage interest: −$14,228
• − Property taxes: −$2,781
• − Insurance: −$1,270
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,066
• − Management: −$2,066
• − Depreciation: −$7,389
• Taxable loss: −$3,978
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$955
• After-tax cash flow: $1,319/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Midland ISD
• NCES district ID: 4830570
• Math proficiency: 34% ▼ -7.00%
• Reading proficiency: 36% ▬ 0.00%
• Median HH income: $63,457
• Composite: 31.63/100
• National rank: #5938
• State rank: #477 of 826 in TX

Livability — Midland

• Score: 79/100
• State rank: #57
• US rank: #2192

Category grades

Amenities D Commute D+ Cost of living A Crime C- Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings D-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Midland, TX
• County: Midland County · 168,494 people
• City population: 168,494
• Metro: Midland, TX
• Population (ZIP): 27,131
• Household income: $57,346
• Rent vs Own: 33.0% rent · 67.0% own
• Severe rent burden: 938.0

Population outlook (Midland County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 220,895 people
• By 2030: 253,667 · +14.8%
• By 2040: 325,498 · +47.4%
• By 2050: 404,168 · +83.0%
• By 2075: 609,802 · +176.1%
• By 2100: 760,172 · +244.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.55)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 61% Two or more races 28% White 27% Black 10%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 57%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 1% Slovak 1% Ukrainian 1%
• Foreign-born: 17% · Canada
• Languages at home: 55% English-only · Spanish 44%

Political lean MEDSL · Midland

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+60.5) · D 19.3% · R 79.8%
• 2008→2024 swing: -3.3pp toward R · 2008: -57.3pp · 2024: -60.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+60.5 2020: R+56.6 2016: R+55.2 2012: R+61.5 2008: R+57.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -227.32%
• Current HPI: 234.6111
• Rent YoY: ▲ 0.74%
• Metro: Midland, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+12925.6% since first listed

7 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-27 Listed $254,000 PBBOR
• 2024-09-24 Rental Removed $1,950 PBBOR
• 2024-09-22 Listed for Rent $1,950 PBBOR
• 2024-09-16 Rental Removed $1,950 PBBOR
• 2024-08-26 Listed for Rent $1,950 PBBOR
• 2023-07-05 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2019-01-29 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+47.1%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,781 · -4.4% YoY. Source: county tax records.