723 N Perry Creek Rd · Comins, MI 48621

$124,900

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 770 sqft · SingleFamily · 118 Days on market

Fair condition 3.91 ac lot $162/sqft · 28% below area Est $172k · 28% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +16.2/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Appreciation +9.6/10.0
• DSCR +5.0/10.0
• 1% rule +4.4/10.0
• Schools +4.1/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.2/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

3+ Acres. .. 3-bedroom, 1-bath, 770+/- sq. ft. home with a detached pole building. This is a tidy and cozy home featuring an updated bathroom, a steel roof, and a high-efficiency natural gas furnace. Located northeast of Mio on a county-maintained road. Close to federal forest land. * * * All information herein is deemed accurate but is not warranted. * * *

Key facts

• Steel roof
• Updated bathroom
• 3.91 acre lot

Tags

• DETACHED POLE BUILDING
• UPDATED BATHROOM
• STEEL ROOF
• COUNTY-MAINTAINED ROAD
• CLOSE TO FEDERAL FOREST LAND

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $125k. Condition is rated fair.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $65 ($782/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $118k (5.9% below list).
• Recommended offer: $114k (9.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade C — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Fairview Area School District (rural): math 45% / reading 50% proficiency, ranked #244 of 760 in MI (top 32%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 28 active listings in the ZIP; 29 units permitted in Oscoda County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $12k of equity ($864 loan paydown + $12k appreciation (9.3% local appreciation)).
• Oscoda County population projected at -32% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (9.3% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $35k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 3, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$31k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 118 days — a 9% lower offer ($114k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: moderate wildfire risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $113,659 (9.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 118 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Have any recent inspections been done? Can we get a copy of the seller's disclosures and any deferred-maintenance estimates?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.94% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.92%
• Cash-on-cash: 2.24%
• DSCR: 1.10
• GRM: 8.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $172,448
• List price: $124,900
• Delta: -27.57%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 1 within 2.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

9.27% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 24.4%
• Equity multiple: 2.89×
• Total profit: $65,999
• Equity at exit: $105,931

10-year hold

• IRR: 21.7%
• Equity multiple: 6.43×
• Total profit: $189,742
• Equity at exit: $221,777

Cash invested: $34,972 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 62 Landlord-Friendly
• State Michigan: 62 Landlord-Friendly · EVEN
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

7-day pay-or-quit; mixed climate; Detroit/AA have some protections.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 48621

• Home prices YoY: 4.6%
• Active inventory: 28
• Price-to-rent: 8.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,175 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$655
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$156 /mo · $1,874/yr
• Insurance: −$52
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$247
• Net cashflow: $65

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,093

Max offer price $124,900

Occupancy floor 89%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $151	-5% $108	+0% $65	+5% $22	+10% $-21
Rent	-10% $-28	-5% $19	+0% $65	+5% $112	+10% $158
Rate	-1.0pp $128	-0.5pp $97	base $65	+0.5pp $33	+1.0pp $0

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $31,225
• Closing costs: $3,747
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 20 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $124,900 Active 118 DOM
2. 2026-06-21
   days on market $124,900 Active 117 DOM
3. 2026-06-18
   days on market $124,900 Active 115 DOM
4. 2026-06-17
   days on market $124,900 Active 114 DOM
5. 2026-06-16
   days on market $124,900 Active 113 DOM
6. 2026-06-15
   days on market $124,900 Active 112 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $124,900 Active 110 DOM
8. 2026-06-12
   days on market $124,900 Active 109 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $124,900 Active 106 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $124,900 Active 105 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $124,900 Active 104 DOM
12. 2026-06-07
    days on market $124,900 Active 103 DOM
13. 2026-06-04
    days on market $124,900 Active 100 DOM
14. 2026-06-02
    days on market $124,900 Active 99 DOM
15. 2026-06-01
    days on market $124,900 Active 98 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $124,900 Active 97 DOM
17. 2026-05-31
    days on market $124,900 Active 96 DOM
18. 2026-03-09
    status Active 363-char remark

    Show marketing remark (363 chars)

    3+ Acres. .. 3-bedroom, 1-bath, 770+/- sq. ft. home with a detached pole building. This is a tidy and cozy home featuring an updated bathroom, a steel roof, and a high-efficiency natural gas furnace. Located northeast of Mio on a county-maintained road. Close to federal forest land. * * * All information herein is deemed accurate but is not warranted. * * *

19. 2026-02-25
    historical Active Under Contract 363-char remark

    Show marketing remark (363 chars)

    3+ Acres. .. 3-bedroom, 1-bath, 770+/- sq. ft. home with a detached pole building. This is a tidy and cozy home featuring an updated bathroom, a steel roof, and a high-efficiency natural gas furnace. Located northeast of Mio on a county-maintained road. Close to federal forest land. * * * All information herein is deemed accurate but is not warranted. * * *

20. 2026-02-23
    listed $124,900 Active 363-char remark

    Show marketing remark (363 chars)

    3+ Acres. .. 3-bedroom, 1-bath, 770+/- sq. ft. home with a detached pole building. This is a tidy and cozy home featuring an updated bathroom, a steel roof, and a high-efficiency natural gas furnace. Located northeast of Mio on a county-maintained road. Close to federal forest land. * * * All information herein is deemed accurate but is not warranted. * * *

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 1/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥94°F today · 13 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $14,101
• − Mortgage interest: −$6,996
• − Property taxes: −$1,874
• − Insurance: −$624
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,128
• − Management: −$1,128
• − Depreciation: −$3,633
• Taxable loss: −$1,283
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$308
• After-tax cash flow: $1,090/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 2 photos

Fair 45/100 Cosmetic rehab

The home requires extensive repairs and maintenance, including a new roof, exterior paint, and landscaping. These updates would significantly increase its resale value.

Repairs flagged

• Major roof — The independent image shows a steel roof, but the listing photos do not provide a clear view of the roof condition.
• Major exterior paint — The independent image shows a yellow house with a brown roof, but the listing photos do not provide a clear view of the exterior paint condition.
• Major landscaping — The independent image shows a lot with snow and trees, but the listing photos do not provide a clear view of the landscaping condition.

Value-add opportunities

• Resale roof replacement — A new roof would significantly improve the home's appearance and increase its value.
• Resale exterior paint — Fresh paint would enhance the home's curb appeal and make it more attractive to potential buyers.
• Resale landscaping — A well-maintained landscape would improve the home's curb appeal and make it more attractive to potential buyers.

Renovation cost estimate screening

Repair item	Severity	Est. cost
roof · The independent image shows a steel roof, but the listing photos do not provide a clear view of the roof condition.	Major	$15,000–50,000
exterior paint · The independent image shows a yellow house with a brown roof, but the listing photos do not provide a clear view of the exterior paint condition.	Major	$15,000–50,000
landscaping · The independent image shows a lot with snow and trees, but the listing photos do not provide a clear view of the landscaping condition.	Major	$15,000–50,000
Total estimated repair cost · 3 items		$45,000–150,000

Value-add ROI direction

• Resale roof replacement — A new roof would significantly improve the home's appearance and increase its value. ↑
• Resale exterior paint — Fresh paint would enhance the home's curb appeal and make it more attractive to potential buyers. ↑
• Resale landscaping — A well-maintained landscape would improve the home's curb appeal and make it more attractive to potential buyers. ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Fairview Area School District
• NCES district ID: 2610560
• Math proficiency: 45% ▲ 5.00%
• Reading proficiency: 50% ▲ 5.00%
• Median HH income: $35,353
• Composite: 41.42/100
• National rank: #7306
• State rank: #244 of 760 in MI

Livability — Comins

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 1,087

Population outlook (Oscoda County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 7,410 people
• By 2030: 6,884 · -7.1%
• By 2040: 5,853 · -21.0%
• By 2050: 5,055 · -31.8%
• By 2075: 3,832 · -48.3%
• By 2100: 2,863 · -61.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (92%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 92% Two or more races 5% Hispanic / Latino 3%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 6% Romanian 5% Italian 4%
• Foreign-born: 1% · Vietnam
• Languages at home: 96% English-only · German/W. Germanic 2% Spanish 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Oscoda

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+44.3) · D 27.2% · R 71.6% · Other 1.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -34.3pp toward R · 2008: -10.0pp · 2024: -44.3pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+44.3 2020: R+43.6 2016: R+44.3 2012: R+16.2 2008: R+10.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 9.27%
• Current HPI: 210.9497
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.37%
• F500 in state: 28

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MI)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Automotive Parts	3	$48B
▸Automotive	2	$372B
▸Chemicals	1	$45B
▸Automotive Retail	1	$29B
▸Healthcare / Medical Devices	1	$23B
▸Automotive Technology	1	$20B

Price history

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-09 Relisted — WWMLS
• 2026-02-25 Contingent — WWMLS
• 2026-02-23 Listed $124,900 WWMLS