Home example Cost is for the LOT only. Plan · Jefferson, OH 44047

$34,000

4 bd · 2.5 ba · 2,000 sqft · SingleFamily · 403 Days on market

Poor condition

---

Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +4.6/10.0
• Livability +3.5/5.0
• Cash flow +3.2/30.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +1.0/5.0
• 1% rule +0.0/10.0
• DSCR +0.0/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Lots range from $34,000 to $70,000. Please call us to discuss which lot you are interested in.

Key facts

• Listed 403 days

🏗️ New construction. The $34,000 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $285,639.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $34k. Condition is rated poor.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-898 ($-11k/yr) — negative.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $34k).
• Recommended offer: $30k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 69/100 on livability (#506 in OH) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, crime A; Watch: health & safety D, amenities F, commute F.
• Jefferson Area Local (rural): math 46% / reading 62% proficiency, ranked #382 of 656 in OH (top 58%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: 23 active listings in the ZIP; 155 units permitted in Ashtabula County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $9k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Ashtabula County population projected at -22% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 403 days — a 12% lower offer ($30k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: property tax is 12.6% of price.

Recommended offer $29,920 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 403 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Have any recent inspections been done? Can we get a copy of the seller's disclosures and any deferred-maintenance estimates?
4. Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
5. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
6. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
7. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
8. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
9. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
10. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
11. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.48% ✗
• Cap rate: 2.52%
• Cash-on-cash: -13.47%
• DSCR: 0.40
• GRM: 17.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $285,639
• List price: $34,000
• Delta: -88.10%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 3 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
420 Brittany Ln	0.51mi	3/2.5 (-1)	1,944 (-3%)	7mo	$320,000	$165	61
232 Franley Dr	0.62mi	5/2.5 (+1)	2,072 (+4%)	7mo	$264,000	$127	54
184 W Jefferson St	0.70mi	4/3.0	2,048 (+2%)	10mo	$279,900	$137	53

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -41.6%
• Equity multiple: -0.29×
• Total profit: $-103,456
• Equity at exit: $42,590

10-year hold

• IRR: -69.6%
• Equity multiple: -1.05×
• Total profit: $-163,645
• Equity at exit: $24,697

Cash invested: $79,979 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 73 Landlord-Friendly
• State Ohio: 73 Landlord-Friendly · R+6
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; Cleveland / Columbus have some habitability code enforcement; otherwise landlord-leaning.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 44047

• Home prices YoY: -23.3%
• Active inventory: 23
• Price-to-rent: 2.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,362 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,498
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$357 /mo · $4,285/yr
• Insurance: −$119
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$286
• Net cashflow: $-898

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,499

Max offer price $155,705

Occupancy floor —

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $71,410
• Closing costs: $8,569
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 8 events

1. 2026-06-08
   days on market $34,000 Active 403 DOM
2. 2026-06-08
   days on market $34,000 Active 402 DOM
3. 2026-06-05
   days on market $34,000 Active 400 DOM
4. 2026-06-04
   days on market $34,000 Active 398 DOM
5. 2026-06-02
   days on market $34,000 Active 397 DOM
6. 2026-06-01
   days on market $34,000 Active 396 DOM
7. 2026-05-31
   days on market $34,000 Active 395 DOM
8. 2025-05-01
   listed $34,000 Active 94-char remark

   Show marketing remark (94 chars)

   Lots range from $34,000 to $70,000. Please call us to discuss which lot you are interested in.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥95°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 5 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $16,345
• − Mortgage interest: −$16,000
• − Property taxes: −$4,285
• − Insurance: −$1,428
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,308
• − Management: −$1,308
• − Depreciation: −$8,309
• Taxable loss: −$16,293
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$3,910
• After-tax cash flow: $-6,865/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 9 photos

Poor 20/100 Extensive rehab

The property is in poor condition with significant landscaping and foundation issues. Immediate repairs and maintenance are needed to improve its value.

Repairs flagged

• Major Landscaping — Overgrown grass and trees need trimming and clearing
• Major Foundation — No visible foundation, but overgrown vegetation suggests potential issues

Value-add opportunities

• Both Landscaping and clearing — Improves curb appeal and property value
• Both Foundation inspection and repair — Ensures structural integrity and property value

Renovation cost estimate screening

Repair item	Severity	Est. cost
Landscaping · Overgrown grass and trees need trimming and clearing	Major	$15,000–50,000
Foundation · No visible foundation, but overgrown vegetation suggests potential issues	Major	$15,000–50,000
Total estimated repair cost · 2 items		$30,000–100,000

Value-add ROI direction

• Both Landscaping and clearing — Improves curb appeal and property value ↑
• Both Foundation inspection and repair — Ensures structural integrity and property value ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Jefferson Area Local
• NCES district ID: 3904587
• Math proficiency: 46% ▼ -14.00%
• Reading proficiency: 62% ▼ -10.00%
• Median HH income: $50,966
• Composite: 46.13/100
• National rank: #2506
• State rank: #382 of 656 in OH

Livability — Jefferson

• Score: 69/100
• State rank: #506
• US rank: #8526

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety D User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Jefferson, OH
• County: Ashtabula · 97,617 people
• Metro: Cleveland, OH
• Population (ZIP): 8,379
• Household income: $59,720
• Rent vs Own: 23.8% rent · 76.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 10.7

Population outlook (Ashtabula County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 92,950 people
• By 2030: 89,146 · -4.1%
• By 2040: 80,715 · -13.2%
• By 2050: 72,270 · -22.2%
• By 2075: 55,780 · -40.0%
• By 2100: 40,928 · -56.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (92%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 92% Two or more races 5% Hispanic / Latino 4%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 3% Slovak 3% Scotch-Irish 1%
• Foreign-born: 2% · Canada

Political lean MEDSL · Ashtabula

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+28.4) · D 35.4% · R 63.8%
• 2008→2024 swing: -41.9pp toward R · 2008: 13.5pp · 2024: -28.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+28.4 2020: R+23.5 2016: R+19.0 2012: D+12.1 2008: D+13.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -73.79%
• Current HPI: 243.2537
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.98%
• F500 in state: 48

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in OH)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Insurance	3	$145B
▸Industrial Machinery	3	$49B
▸Financial Services	3	$24B
▸Consumer Goods	2	$93B
▸Aerospace / Defense	2	$47B
▸Utilities	2	$33B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2025-05-01 Listed $34,000 Zillow