9033 E Lazywood Pl · Carefree, AZ 85377

$965,000

3 bd · 3.0 ba · 2,981 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 20 Days on market

Built 1979 0.99 ac lot Est $1261k · 23% under $5/mo HOA

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +20.2/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Appreciation +8.1/10.0
• DSCR +6.4/10.0
• Schools +5.4/10.0
• 1% rule +4.0/10.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks

Nestled on . 98 acres in the quiet community of Carefree Shadows, this custom Carefree desert home offers 2,941 square feet of architectural warmth, spacious living areas, and a flexible floor plan. Although older, the home showcases dramatic wood beamed ceilings, rich wood textures, abundant natural light, and a true indoor outdoor Arizona feel throughout. The split bedroom floor plan features expansive living and entertaining spaces including formal dining, a very large family room with a striking rock fireplace, and an enormous enclosed Arizona room overlooking the desert landscape and mature saguaros. North south exposure helps provide balanced natural light throughout the home, while c

Key facts

• North south exposure
• 0.99 acre lot
• 2 garage spots

Tags

• DRAMATIC WOOD BEAMED CEILINGS
• ENCLOSED ARIZONA ROOM
• NORTH SOUTH EXPOSURE
• MASSIVE UPSTAIRS LOFT
• CEDAR LINED WALK IN CLOSET
• DETACHED OVERSIZED SHED

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Lot size source: assessor
• HOA & community: Annual association fee of $60 covering grounds maintenance; Association rules restrict visible trucks, trailers, RVs, boats; Has homeowners association

Exterior

• Parking: Covered parking for 2 vehicles; 2-car garage with garage door opener and direct access; Circular driveway; Separate storage area in garage
• Utilities: City water; Septic system (septic tank; septic in & connected)
• Home design: Single family residence; Fee simple ownership; City-maintained road
• Construction: Board & batten siding and painted exterior; Slump block construction; Tile roof; Building area source: assessor
• Exterior features: Screened-in patio; Storage; Shed(s); Partial chain-link fencing and other/see remarks; Tile roof; Desert and mountain views; Asphalt road access; Desert landscaping front and back with gravel/stone and natural desert areas; Automatic timed irrigation front and back

Interior

• Kitchen: Built-in microwave; Laminate countertops; Refrigerator; Dishwasher; Disposal; Built-in electric oven; Pantry
• Bedrooms: Up to 4 bedrooms (possible)
• Flooring: Carpet; Tile; Wood
• Bathrooms: 3 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Heat pump; Natural gas heating; Central air; Ceiling fans; Programmable thermostat; Has heating and cooling
• Interior features: High-speed internet; Double vanity in bath; Master bedroom on main level; Eat-in kitchen; 9+ foot flat ceilings and vaulted ceilings; Pantry; Full bath in master bedroom; Separate shower and tub; See remarks (additional interior details); Dual-pane windows; Gas fireplace; Multi-zone water heater/energy features; Zero-grade (no-step) entry
• Laundry & utility: Laundry inside with washer/dryer hookups only

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/3.0-bath single-family listed at $965k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $1k ($15k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $868k (10.1% below list).
• Recommended offer: $868k (10.1% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 7.8% vs local median 4.0% in Carefree — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 68/100 on livability (#58 in AZ) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+; Watch: amenities D+, health & safety D+, commute F.
• Cave Creek Unified District (4244) (urban): math 57% / reading 59% proficiency, ranked #13 of 249 in AZ (top 5%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease; only 8% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Zoned schools: Black Mountain Elementary School (math 66% / reading 63%, grade B, #104 of 1,109 statewide, top 10%, 495 students, 8% FRL); Sonoran Trails Middle School (math 48% / reading 50%, grade C-, #31 of 218 statewide, top 14%, 761 students, 7% FRL); Cactus Shadows High School (math 49% / reading 46%, grade D, #48 of 381 statewide, top 13%, 1,588 students, 6% FRL) — zoned schools at 7% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: 101 active listings in the ZIP; 13 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 44d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 85% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 36,011 units permitted in Maricopa County in 2024 (12,801 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $66k of equity ($7k loan paydown + $59k appreciation (6.1% local appreciation)).
• Maricopa County population projected at +38% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (6.1% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $270k cash investment doubles in ~4 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$105k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 20 days — a 2% lower offer ($951k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→17/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $867,952 (10.1% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1979 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.90% ✗
• Cap rate: 7.81%
• Cash-on-cash: 5.42%
• DSCR: 1.24
• GRM: 9.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $1,260,963
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
8930 E Cave Creek Rd	0.27mi	3/3.5	2,953 (-1%)	3mo	$1,250,000	$423	81
9001 E Lazywood Pl	0.08mi	3/2.5	3,215 (+8%)	4mo	$1,225,000	$381	78
37200 N Cave Creek Rd #1037	0.49mi	3/3.5	2,984 (+0%)	1mo	$2,400,000	$804	74
9225 E Lazywood Pl	0.19mi	4/3.0 (+1)	3,180 (+7%)	3mo	$1,399,900	$440	72
37200 N Cave Creek Rd #1051	0.49mi	3/3.5	3,037 (+2%)	2mo	$2,662,500	$877	71
8928 E Venus Dr	0.29mi	4/3.0 (+1)	2,799 (-6%)	1mo	$1,000,000	$357	70
9505 E Sunrise Cir	0.48mi	4/3.0 (+1)	2,904 (-3%)	2mo	$1,300,000	$448	66
36444 N Stardust Ln	0.12mi	4/3.0 (+1)	3,403 (+14%)	1mo	$950,000	$279	65
8944 E Cave Creek Rd E	0.25mi	3/2.5	2,625 (-12%)	4mo	$1,045,000	$398	63
36663 N Wildflower Rd	0.45mi	3/3.0	3,266 (+10%)	3mo	$1,287,500	$394	60
9432 E Quail Trl	0.38mi	4/2.5 (+1)	2,620 (-12%)	2mo	$1,235,000	$471	54
9251 E Bajada Rd	0.62mi	3/2.5	3,276 (+10%)	1mo	$1,166,000	$356	52

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

6.13% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 20.1%
• Equity multiple: 2.34×
• Total profit: $363,335
• Equity at exit: $614,649

10-year hold

• IRR: 19.3%
• Equity multiple: 4.72×
• Total profit: $1,004,933
• Equity at exit: $1,121,614

Cash invested: $270,200 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Arizona: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

5-day pay-or-quit; AZ courts known for speed; no state rent control; cities preempted by state law.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 85377

• Home prices YoY: 1.9%
• Active inventory: 101
• Price-to-rent: 9.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $8,680 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$5,061
• Tax from tax record: −$169 /mo · $2,032/yr
• Insurance: −$402
• HOA: −$5
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$1,823
• Net cashflow: $1,220

Break-even live

Break-even rent $7,135

Max offer price $965,000

Occupancy floor 81%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $241,250
• Closing costs: $28,950
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 13 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
37200 N Cave Creek Rd Scottsdale, AZ	3.0–4.0	3.5–4.5	3008	$12,000	$3.99	24d	4	0.42mi
9303 E Whitewing Dr Scottsdale, AZ	3.0	2.0	2167	$2,800	$1.29	13d	1	0.90mi
9338 E Prairie Cir Scottsdale, AZ	3.0	2.5	2515	$7,000	$2.78	44d	1	0.99mi
9492 E Sundance Trl Scottsdale, AZ	3.0	3.5	3488	$18,000	$5.16	44d	1	1.02mi
9255 E Broken Arrow Dr Scottsdale, AZ	3.0	3.0	2127	$6,850	$3.22	44d	1	1.09mi
34748 N 93rd Pl Scottsdale, AZ	2.0	2.0	2256	$8,500	$3.77	44d	1	1.20mi
36601 Mule Train Rd Unit A32 Carefree, AZ	2.0	2.5	1970	$3,800	$1.93	44d	1	1.46mi
36601 Mule Train Rd Unit B20 Carefree, AZ	2.0	3.0	1970	$4,000	$2.03	44d	1	1.46mi
36601 Mule Train Rd Unit A5 Carefree, AZ	2.0	2.5	1970	$4,950	$2.51	44d	1	1.46mi
36601 N Mule Train Rd Unit 12C Carefree, AZ	2.0	2.5	2100	$5,500	$2.62	44d	1	1.46mi
36601 Mule Train Rd Unit B16 Carefree, AZ	2.0	3.0	1970	$4,500	$2.28	44d	1	1.46mi
36601 N Mule Train Rd Unit 29C Carefree, AZ	2.0	2.5	1970	$3,900	$1.98	44d	1	1.46mi
36601 Mule Train Rd Unit C16 Carefree, AZ	2.0	3.0	1970	$5,650	$2.87	44d	1	1.46mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $5 · $60/yr

Listing history 14 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $965,000 Active 20 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $965,000 Active 19 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $965,000 Active 18 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $965,000 Active 17 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $965,000 Active 15 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $965,000 Active 14 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $965,000 Active 11 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $965,000 Active 10 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $965,000 Active 9 DOM
10. 2026-06-04
    days on market $965,000 Active 6 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $965,000 Active 5 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $965,000 Active 4 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $965,000 Active 3 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $965,000 Active 2 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast AZ · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,032 · $169/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $6,369 · $531/mo
• Expected delta: +$4,337/yr (+$361/mo · 213.4%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (shaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 6/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥107°F today · 17 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 4 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $104,154
• − Mortgage interest: −$54,055
• − Property taxes: −$2,032
• − Insurance: −$4,825
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$8,332
• − Management: −$8,332
• − HOA: −$60
• − Depreciation: −$28,073
• Taxable loss: −$1,555
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$373
• After-tax cash flow: $15,011/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Cave Creek Unified District (4244)
• NCES district ID: 0400001
• Math proficiency: 57% ▼ -9.00%
• Reading proficiency: 59% ▼ -8.00%
• Median HH income: $102,788
• Composite: 54.46/100
• National rank: #1351
• State rank: #13 of 249 in AZ

Livability — Carefree

• Score: 68/100
• State rank: #58
• US rank: #9958

Category grades

Amenities D+ Commute F Cost of living F Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing C Health & safety D+ User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Carefree, AZ
• City population: 3,452
• Population (ZIP): 3,452

Population outlook (Maricopa County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 4,979,203 people
• By 2030: 5,378,229 · +8.0%
• By 2040: 6,156,598 · +23.6%
• By 2050: 6,872,376 · +38.0%
• By 2075: 8,401,270 · +68.7%
• By 2100: 9,247,439 · +85.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (97%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 97% Asian 2% Hispanic / Latino 1%
• Common ancestry: Scotch-Irish 4% Italian 4% Portuguese 3%
• Foreign-born: 12% · Canada
• Languages at home: 89% English-only · Spanish 3% French/Haitian/Cajun 3% German/W. Germanic 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Maricopa

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 47.7% · R 51.2% · Other 1.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: +7.1pp toward D · 2008: -10.6pp · 2024: -3.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+3.5 2020: D+2.2 2016: R+3.5 2012: R+12.0 2008: R+10.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 6.13%
• Current HPI: 332.8138
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 4.54%
• F500 in state: 20

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in AZ)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	2	$13B
▸Mining / Metals	1	$23B
▸Environmental Services	1	$16B
▸Metals / Steel	1	$14B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$9B
▸Homebuilding	1	$8B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-05-29 Listed $965,000 ARMLS

Property tax history

+1.2%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,032 · +0.4% YoY. Source: county tax records.