7016 53rd St · Lubbock, TX 79407

$307,990

5 bd · 3.5 ba · 2,143 sqft · SingleFamily · 48 Days on market

Built 2026 6,300 sqft lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +10.9/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +4.4/10.0
• Livability +4.0/5.0
• 1% rule +3.2/10.0
• DSCR +3.2/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

The Las Cruces is one of our one-story floor plans featured in the Westmont community in Lubbock, TX. Offering options for both modern farmhouse and classic brick exteriors, the Las Cruces is sure to turn heads. Step inside this 5-bedroom, 3-bathroom home and find 2,143 square feet of elevated modern living. The Las Cruces features an open concept kitchen and family room area, allowing you to always be close to the action. The kitchen features shaker style cabinets complete with stainless steel appliances, modern tile backsplash, and quartz countertops to add an extra level of charm to your space. The designated dining area is situated beside the kitchen, ideal for cheerful gatherings and d

Key facts

• Quartz countertops
• Open concept kitchen
• One story floor plan

Tags

• ONE STORY FLOOR PLAN
• OPEN CONCEPT KITCHEN
• SHAKER STYLE CABINETS
• STAINLESS STEEL APPLIANCES
• MODERN TILE BACKSPLASH
• QUARTZ COUNTERTOPS

🏗️ New construction. Builder plan / spec listing (the home may be to-be-built); metrics use comparable previous sales.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 5-bed/3.5-bath single-family listed at $308k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-135 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $288k (6.4% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $252k (18.1% below list).
• Recommended offer: $252k (18.1% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 80/100 on livability (#37 in TX, #1,749 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: commute A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: employment C-, crime F.
• Frenship ISD (urban): math 47% / reading 54% proficiency, ranked #162 of 826 in TX (top 20%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Westwind El (math 34% / reading 37%, grade F, #1,946 of 4,322 statewide, top 45%, 601 students, 71% FRL); Heritage Middle (math 47% / reading 59%, grade C+, #281 of 1,662 statewide, top 18%, 766 students, 42% FRL); Frenship H S (math 44% / reading 65%, grade C-, #379 of 1,632 statewide, top 26%, 3,247 students, 46% FRL) — zoned schools average 53% FRL vs 36% district-wide (17 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-0.1%/yr); 610 active listings in the ZIP; 4 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 45d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 50% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 2,219 units permitted in Lubbock County in 2024 (252 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $2,523/mo this rent would consume 49% of the median local household income ($62k/yr) (locally 1914% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $9k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Lubbock County population projected at +39% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 48 days — a 3% lower offer ($299k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $252,298 (18.1% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 48 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 18% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.82% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.77%
• Cash-on-cash: -1.88%
• DSCR: 0.92
• GRM: 10.2

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -22.8%
• Equity multiple: 0.24×
• Total profit: $-65,880
• Equity at exit: $45,922

10-year hold

• IRR: -27.6%
• Equity multiple: -0.12×
• Total profit: $-96,883
• Equity at exit: $26,629

Cash invested: $86,237 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 79407

• Home prices YoY: -16.3%
• Rents YoY: -0.1%
• Active inventory: 610
• Price-to-rent: 10.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,523 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,615
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$385 /mo · $4,620/yr
• Insurance: −$128
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$530
• Net cashflow: $-135

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,694

Max offer price $288,413

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $78	-5% $-29	+0% $-135	+5% $-242	+10% $-348
Rent	-10% $-335	-5% $-235	+0% $-135	+5% $-36	+10% $64
Rate	-1.0pp $20	-0.5pp $-57	base $-135	+0.5pp $-215	+1.0pp $-296

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $76,998
• Closing costs: $9,240
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 4 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
5014 Quincy Ave Lubbock, TX	4.0	3.0	2223	$2,800	$1.26	22d	1	0.23mi
6003 Venita Ave Lubbock, TX	4.0	2.0	1600	$1,800	$1.12	44d	1	0.80mi
3701 Rochester Ave Lubbock, TX	4.0	2.0	2054	$1,750	$0.85	44d	1	1.01mi
7619 59th St Lubbock, TX	4.0	3.0	2271	$2,695	$1.19	14d	1	1.21mi

Listing history 2 events

1. 2026-01-27
   status Pending
2. 2025-12-09
   listed $307,990 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $30,276
• − Mortgage interest: −$17,252
• − Property taxes: −$4,620
• − Insurance: −$1,540
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,422
• − Management: −$2,422
• − Depreciation: −$8,960
• Taxable loss: −$6,940
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,666
• After-tax cash flow: $42/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Frenship ISD
• NCES district ID: 4819830
• Math proficiency: 47% ▼ -8.00%
• Reading proficiency: 54% ▬ 0.00%
• Median HH income: $54,376
• Composite: 43.59/100
• National rank: #2976
• State rank: #162 of 826 in TX

Livability — Lubbock

• Score: 80/100
• State rank: #37
• US rank: #1749

Category grades

Amenities A Commute A+ Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment C- Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings D+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Lubbock, TX
• County: Lubbock County · 293,542 people
• City population: 283,030
• Metro: Lubbock, TX
• Population (ZIP): 24,000
• Household income: $61,509
• Rent vs Own: 52.8% rent · 47.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 1914.0

Population outlook (Lubbock County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 345,960 people
• By 2030: 371,449 · +7.4%
• By 2040: 424,539 · +22.7%
• By 2050: 481,150 · +39.1%
• By 2075: 633,467 · +83.1%
• By 2100: 746,853 · +115.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.56)
• Race & ethnicity: White 58% Hispanic / Latino 31% Two or more races 17% Black 4% Asian 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 27%
• Common ancestry: Italian 2% Lithuanian 1% Slovak 1%
• Foreign-born: 5% · Canada, South Korea, China
• Languages at home: 83% English-only · Spanish 13% Other Asian/Pacific 1% Chinese 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Lubbock

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+39.5) · D 29.7% · R 69.2% · Other 1.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -2.8pp toward R · 2008: -36.7pp · 2024: -39.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+39.5 2020: R+32.2 2016: R+38.4 2012: R+40.9 2008: R+36.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -44.87%
• Current HPI: 229.9895
• Rent YoY: ▼ -0.07%
• Metro: Lubbock, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-01-27 Pending — LARMLS
• 2025-12-09 Listed $307,990 LARMLS