161 Meadowview Ln · Penelope, TX 76648

$199,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,680 sqft · Manufactured public records · 313 Days on market

Built 2016 1.00 ac lot ↓ 23% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +13.6/30.0
• Appreciation +9.5/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• DSCR +4.1/10.0
• Schools +3.9/10.0
• 1% rule +3.1/10.0
• Livability +2.6/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks

Welcome to your country get away. Fresh air and beautiful views. This amazing property makes you feel like you are so far away from the from the city but you are only a 15 minute drive from IH 35. This home is super spacious and boasts an open concept. Lovely kitchen with an island. Crown molding accent the living room. The master sweet is just divine. Huge bathroom with a large soak tub with his and her sinks on both the sides. The land and country views are so peaceful and stunning. This property also has a front porch, and an amazing large deck in the back. The metal two car garage is super spacious. Part of the land is fenced in for the doggies as well. This property is a must see. * *

Key facts

• His and her sinks
• Open concept
• Large soak tub

Tags

• BEAUTIFUL VIEWS
• OPEN CONCEPT
• KITCHEN WITH ISLAND
• CROWN MOLDING
• LARGE SOAK TUB
• HIS AND HER SINKS

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $199k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $10 ($116/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $162k (18.8% below list).
• Recommended offer: $162k (18.8% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 52/100 on livability (#1,465 in TX) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, crime A; Watch: schools D-, amenities F, commute F.
• Penelope ISD (rural): math 50% / reading 35% proficiency, ranked #620 of 1,141 in TX (top 54%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 64% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: 60 active listings in the ZIP; 65 units permitted in Hill County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $19k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $18k appreciation (8.9% local appreciation)).
• Hill County population projected at -12% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (8.9% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $56k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$31k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 313 days — a 12% lower offer ($175k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts since 3y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $51k (20%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 76% chance of damaging wind over 30y; major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $161,631 (18.8% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 313 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 19% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.81% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.35%
• Cash-on-cash: 0.21%
• DSCR: 1.01
• GRM: 10.3

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

8.95% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 22.2%
• Equity multiple: 2.70×
• Total profit: $94,798
• Equity at exit: $164,213

10-year hold

• IRR: 20.1%
• Equity multiple: 5.95×
• Total profit: $275,757
• Equity at exit: $339,239

Cash invested: $55,720 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 76648

• Home prices YoY: 4.2%
• Active inventory: 60
• Price-to-rent: 10.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,616 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,044
• Tax from tax record: −$141 /mo · $1,688/yr
• Insurance: −$83
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$339
• Net cashflow: $10

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,604

Max offer price $199,000

Occupancy floor 94%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $49,750
• Closing costs: $5,970
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 9 events

1. 2026-02-22
   status Pending
2. 2026-01-15
   price $199,000
3. 2025-03-21
   listed $249,900 Active
4. 2024-08-02
   historical
5. 2024-07-14
   historical
6. 2023-12-18
   price $259,900
7. 2023-08-28
   price $274,900
8. 2023-08-07
   listed $285,500 Active
9. 2023-07-14
   listed $259,900

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,688 · $141/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,642 · $303/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,953/yr (+$163/mo · 115.7%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 6/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥109°F today · 24 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 76% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $19,396
• − Mortgage interest: −$11,147
• − Property taxes: −$1,688
• − Insurance: −$995
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,552
• − Management: −$1,552
• − Depreciation: −$5,789
• Taxable loss: −$3,327
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$799
• After-tax cash flow: $915/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Penelope ISD
• NCES district ID: 4834560
• Math proficiency: 50% ▲ 10.00%
• Reading proficiency: 35% ▬ 0.00%
• Median HH income: $48,811
• Composite: 38.81/100
• National rank: #8352
• State rank: #620 of 1141 in TX

Livability — Penelope

• Score: 52/100
• State rank: #1465
• US rank: #25099

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A Employment F Housing F Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 2,922

Population outlook (Hill County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 34,013 people
• By 2030: 33,289 · -2.1%
• By 2040: 31,688 · -6.8%
• By 2050: 30,100 · -11.5%
• By 2075: 26,818 · -21.2%
• By 2100: 22,918 · -32.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Majority White (65%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 65% Hispanic / Latino 17% Black 11% Two or more races 4% Asian 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 15%
• Common ancestry: Italian 2% Lithuanian 1% Serbian 1%
• Foreign-born: 4% · Canada
• Languages at home: 89% English-only · Spanish 7% Other Indo-European 3% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Hill

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+64.4) · D 17.5% · R 81.8%
• 2008→2024 swing: -23.0pp toward R · 2008: -41.4pp · 2024: -64.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+64.4 2020: R+60.7 2016: R+58.4 2012: R+53.0 2008: R+41.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 8.95%
• Current HPI: 223.2919
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-23.4% since first listed

9 events — show timeline

• 2026-02-22 Pending — NTREIS
• 2026-01-15 Price Changed $199,000 NTREIS
• 2025-03-21 Listed $249,900 NTREIS
• 2024-08-02 Listing Removed — NTREIS
• 2024-07-14 Listing Removed — NTREIS
• 2023-12-18 Price Changed $259,900 NTREIS
• 2023-08-28 Price Changed $274,900 NTREIS
• 2023-08-07 Listed $285,500 NTREIS
• 2023-07-14 Listed $259,900 NTREIS

Property tax history

+2.8%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,688 · +12.3% YoY. Source: county tax records.