8749 Shadycreek Dr #8751 · Centerville, OH 45458

$389,900

4 bd · 3.0 ba · 2,644 sqft · MultiFamily · 51 Days on market

Built 1978 0.40 ac lot Est $383k · at est.

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +10.5/30.0
• ARV discount +6.7/15.0
• Schools +5.8/10.0
• Livability +4.2/5.0
• 1% rule +3.1/10.0
• DSCR +3.0/10.0
• Rent growth +3.0/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Multi-family units

County records classify this as Multi-Family (2-4 Unit). Listing-text estimate: 2 units. confirmed

Listing remarks

Rare opportunity to own a Centerville duplex featuring two spacious 2-bedroom, 1.5-bath units, each offering approximately 1,322 sq. ft. of living space (2,644 sq. ft. total). Both units are currently vacant, providing flexibility for an owner-occupant or investor. The property previously generated $2,900 per month in rental income, with a strong history of consistent occupancy driven by demand for larger rental units in this area. One unit is move-in ready while the other offers an opportunity for cosmetic updates and value-add potential. Whether you're looking for a stable long-term investment or a property with room to increase returns, this duplex presents excellent upside.

Key facts

• 0.4 acre lot
• 2 garage spots
• Built 1978

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Property is for sale
• Financial info: Gross income (multi-family): $34,800; Tenant pays: electricity, heat, sewer, trash collection, water

Exterior

• Parking: Attached 2-car garage with garage door opener; Driveway
• Security: Smoke detectors
• Utilities: Public water; Sewer available; Water available
• Home design: Single-story building; One building containing 2 units
• Construction: Brick construction; Slab foundation
• Exterior features: Patio; Residential zoning

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Range; Refrigerator
• Bedrooms: Three-bedroom unit(s)
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms; 2 half bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Electric forced-air heating; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Ceiling fans; Laminate countertops; Double-hung windows
• Laundry & utility: Gas water heater

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2 × 2-bed/1.5-bath units multifamily listed at $390k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-199 ($-2k/yr) — negative. Per door: $-99/mo.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $361k (7.4% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $316k (19.0% below list).
• Recommended offer: $316k (19.0% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 5.7% vs local median 2.9% in Centerville — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 85/100 on livability (#45 in OH, #604 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: schools A+, crime A+, cost of living A+; Watch: amenities D+, commute F.
• Centerville City (suburban): math 62% / reading 71% proficiency, ranked #163 of 656 in OH (top 25%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease; only 12% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.0%/yr); 219 active listings in the ZIP; 3 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 15d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 907 units permitted in Montgomery County in 2024 (416 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 34% of the median local income ($110k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $12k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Montgomery County population projected at -10% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 51 days — a 3% lower offer ($378k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $315,900 (19.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 51 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 19% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Can we see the unit-by-unit rent roll, current vacancy, and any below-market leases? What's the average tenancy length?
4. What capital expenditures (roof, boiler, parking lot, exteriors) have been made in the last 5 years, and what's planned in the next 2?
5. Built in 1978 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
6. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
7. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
8. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
9. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
10. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
11. How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.81% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.68%
• Cash-on-cash: -2.19%
• DSCR: 0.90
• GRM: 10.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $383,380
• Comps found: 4

Show comp detail 4 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
509 Peachcreek Rd	0.14mi	4/2.0	2,808 (+6%)	2mo	$350,000	$125	77
8734 Shadycreek Dr	0.05mi	5/4.0 (+1)	2,838 (+7%)	0mo	$393,600	$139	76
8765 Meadowcreek Dr #8763	0.07mi	5/4.0 (+1)	2,706 (+2%)	16mo	$392,000	$145	71
8760 Shadycreek Dr #8758	0.04mi	4/4.0	2,248 (-15%)	8mo	$330,000	$147	63

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 2.04% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -21.0%
• Equity multiple: 0.28×
• Total profit: $-78,824
• Equity at exit: $58,135

10-year hold

• IRR: -16.7%
• Equity multiple: 0.11×
• Total profit: $-96,922
• Equity at exit: $33,711

Cash invested: $109,172 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 73 Landlord-Friendly
• State Ohio: 73 Landlord-Friendly · R+6
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; Cleveland / Columbus have some habitability code enforcement; otherwise landlord-leaning.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 45458

• Rents YoY: 2.0%
• Active inventory: 219
• Price-to-rent: 20.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $3,159 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,045
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$487 /mo · $5,848/yr
• Insurance: −$162
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$663
• Net cashflow: $-199

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,411

Max offer price $361,119

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $71	-5% $-64	+0% $-199	+5% $-334	+10% $-468
Rent	-10% $-448	-5% $-324	+0% $-199	+5% $-74	+10% $51
Rate	-1.0pp $-3	-0.5pp $-100	base $-199	+0.5pp $-300	+1.0pp $-403

2-unit breakdown (identical units grouped — click to expand)

Units	Beds	Baths	Est. rent
▸ 2× units	2	1.5	$3,158
Total (2 units)			$3,159

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $97,475
• Closing costs: $11,697
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 3 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
54 Benzell Dr Dayton, OH	3.0	2.0	1789	$1,895	$1.06	3d	1	1.05mi
96 E Franklin St #94 Washington Township, OH	3.0	1.5	2944	$1,950	$0.66	15d	1	1.31mi
96 E Franklin St Washington Township, OH	3.0	1.5	2944	$1,950	$0.66	24d	1	1.31mi

Listing history 2 events

1. 2026-05-01
   status Pending
2. 2026-03-09
   listed $389,900 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 4/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥100°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 100% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 4/10 Moderate 4 unhealthy d/yr today · 5 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $37,908
• − Mortgage interest: −$21,840
• − Property taxes: −$5,848
• − Insurance: −$1,950
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$3,033
• − Management: −$3,033
• − Depreciation: −$11,343
• Taxable loss: −$9,138
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,193
• After-tax cash flow: $-194/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Centerville City
• NCES district ID: 3904373
• Math proficiency: 62% ▼ -12.00%
• Reading proficiency: 71% ▼ -8.00%
• Median HH income: $70,985
• Composite: 58.44/100
• National rank: #1005
• State rank: #163 of 656 in OH

Livability — Centerville

• Score: 85/100
• State rank: #45
• US rank: #604

Category grades

Amenities D+ Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment A Housing A+ Health & safety B+ User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Montgomery County · 459,541 people
• City population: 27,545
• Metro: Dayton-Kettering, OH
• Population (ZIP): 38,712
• Household income: $110,150
• Rent vs Own: 24.5% rent · 75.5% own
• Severe rent burden: 818.0

Population outlook (Montgomery County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 523,241 people
• By 2030: 514,948 · -1.6%
• By 2040: 493,378 · -5.7%
• By 2050: 469,639 · -10.2%
• By 2075: 418,360 · -20.0%
• By 2100: 353,315 · -32.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (78%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 78% Black 7% Two or more races 7% Asian 7% Hispanic / Latino 6%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 1%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 3% Romanian 3% Italian 2%
• Foreign-born: 9% · Canada, China
• Languages at home: 90% English-only · Other Indo-European 2% Spanish 2% Other Asian/Pacific 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Montgomery

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 49.8% · R 49.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: -5.8pp toward R · 2008: 6.2pp · 2024: 0.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+0.5 2020: D+2.2 2016: R+1.2 2012: D+3.1 2008: D+6.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -204.98%
• Current HPI: 193.0497
• Rent YoY: ▲ 2.04%
• Metro: Dayton-Kettering, OH
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.98%
• F500 in state: 48

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in OH)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Insurance	3	$145B
▸Industrial Machinery	3	$49B
▸Financial Services	3	$24B
▸Consumer Goods	2	$93B
▸Aerospace / Defense	2	$47B
▸Utilities	2	$33B

Price history

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-01 Pending — Dayton MLS
• 2026-03-09 Listed $389,900 Dayton MLS