4240 Pinehurst Cir · Stockton, CA 95219

$678,000

4 bd · 3.0 ba · 2,390 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 77 Days on market

Built 1996 8,525 sqft lot $284/sqft · 16% below area Est $806k · 16% under $217/mo HOA · 6% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +14.7/15.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• Cash flow +4.2/30.0
• Rent growth +3.5/5.0
• Schools +3.0/10.0
• Livability +2.9/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +0.1/10.0
• DSCR +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

2 story home, located in the prestigious gated golf community of Brookside Estates. Nicely landscape front and back yards. Open and spacious , high ceilings, 4 beds, 3 baths, 3 car garage, kitchen and family room combo. Open formal dining and living room. Large master suite at upper level, Solar system is fully paid.

Key facts

• Gated golf community
• 8,525 sq ft lot
• 3 garage spots

Tags

• GATED GOLF COMMUNITY
• LANDSCAPE FRONT AND BACK YARDS
• KITCHEN AND FAMILY ROOM COMBO
• SOLAR SYSTEM FULLY PAID

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/3.0-bath single-family listed at $678k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-2k ($-22k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $353k (47.9% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $344k (49.2% below list).
• Recommended offer: $344k (49.2% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 57/100 on livability (#734 in CA) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: housing A+, health & safety A, amenities A-; Watch: employment C-, crime F, commute F.
• Lincoln Unified (urban): math 26% / reading 41% proficiency, ranked #284 of 517 in CA (top 55%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Brookside (math 57% / reading 61%, grade B-, #257 of 1,571 statewide, top 17%, 731 students, 37% FRL); Sierra Middle (math 25% / reading 48%, grade F, #175 of 498 statewide, top 36%, 572 students, 73% FRL); Lincoln High (math 35% / reading 64%, grade D, #352 of 1,170 statewide, top 31%, 2,936 students, 53% FRL) — zoned schools at 54% FRL track the district average.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 48% at this address vs 34% district-wide (+15 pts) — the actual schools serving this property are materially stronger than the Lincoln Unified average implies; a family-tenant draw the district grade alone would hide.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+4.2%/yr); 217 active listings in the ZIP; 6 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 46d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 50% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; high-income renter base; 3,779 units permitted in San Joaquin County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 37% of the median local income ($112k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $72k of equity ($5k loan paydown + $68k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• San Joaquin County population projected at +17% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$117k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 77 days — a 6% lower offer ($637k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Current owner paid $460k; 47% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 6→13/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $344,337 (49.2% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 77 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 49% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
7. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
8. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
9. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
10. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
11. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.51% ✗
• Cap rate: 3.04%
• Cash-on-cash: -11.61%
• DSCR: 0.48
• GRM: 16.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $806,276
• List price: $678,000
• Delta: -15.91%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
4240 Pinehurst Cir	0.00mi	4/3.0	2,390 (0%)	1mo	$670,000	$280	99
4224 Pinehurst Cir	0.08mi	3/3.0 (-1)	2,305 (-4%)	2mo	$595,000	$258	84
4545 Winding River Cir	0.55mi	5/3.0 (+1)	2,493 (+4%)	0mo	$600,000	$241	62
2910 Raintree Ct	0.35mi	3/3.0 (-1)	2,500 (+5%)	11mo	$750,000	$300	62
4430 Winding River Cir	0.52mi	5/3.0 (+1)	2,374 (-1%)	10mo	$668,000	$281	61
4273 Boulder Creek Cir	0.33mi	3/2.0 (-1)	2,551 (+7%)	7mo	$570,000	$223	58
4118 Saint Andrews Dr	0.18mi	3/2.0 (-1)	2,607 (+9%)	13mo	$950,000	$364	57
2754 Country Club Ct	0.71mi	4/2.5	2,293 (-4%)	3mo	$490,000	$214	56
3743 Saint Andrews Dr	0.61mi	3/3.0 (-1)	2,242 (-6%)	6mo	$680,000	$303	51
3850 Annandale Ct	0.53mi	3/3.0 (-1)	2,242 (-6%)	11mo	$625,000	$279	50
3839 Annandale Ct	0.56mi	3/3.0 (-1)	2,242 (-6%)	13mo	$655,000	$292	48
3127 W Monterey Ave	0.63mi	3/1.0 (-1)	2,058 (-14%)	6mo	$395,000	$192	29

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 4.16% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 16.4%
• Equity multiple: 2.35×
• Total profit: $256,286
• Equity at exit: $610,796

10-year hold

• IRR: 15.9%
• Equity multiple: 5.51×
• Total profit: $855,331
• Equity at exit: $1,317,205

Cash invested: $189,840 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

AB1482 statewide rent cap (10% + CPI). Cities (SF/LA/Berkeley) layer stricter rules. Just-cause statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 95219

• Home prices YoY: 6.6%
• Rents YoY: 4.2%
• Active inventory: 217
• Price-to-rent: 16.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $3,443 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$3,556
• Tax from tax record: −$502 /mo · $6,029/yr
• Insurance: −$282
• HOA: −$217
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$723
• Net cashflow: $-1,837

Break-even live

Break-even rent $5,769

Max offer price $353,459

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-1,453	-5% $-1,645	+0% $-1,837	+5% $-2,029	+10% $-2,221
Rent	-10% $-2,109	-5% $-1,973	+0% $-1,837	+5% $-1,701	+10% $-1,565
Rate	-1.0pp $-1,496	-0.5pp $-1,665	base $-1,837	+0.5pp $-2,013	+1.0pp $-2,192

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $169,500
• Closing costs: $20,340
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 6 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
4609 Da Vinci Dr Stockton, CA	3.0	2.5	1592	$2,000	$1.26	5d	1	0.88mi
3936 Dennis Ave Stockton, CA	4.0	2.0	1583	$2,625	$1.66	4d	1	0.92mi
5007 Innisbrook Dr Stockton, CA	3.0	2.0	1723	$3,200	$1.86	45d	1	1.00mi
5956 Saint Andrews Dr Stockton, CA	4.0	2.5	3345	$3,300	$0.99	45d	1	1.14mi
3906 Brook Valley Cir Stockton, CA	4.0	3.0	2426	$3,100	$1.28	45d	1	1.17mi
3616 Wood Duck Cir Stockton, CA	5.0	3.0	2302	$7,500	$3.26	25d	1	1.37mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $217 · $2,604/yr
• Likely covers: security

Listing history 1 events

1. 2020-01-15
   soldstatus $460,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast CA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $6,029 · $502/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $6,029 · $502/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 6 d/yr ≥102°F today · 13 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 10/10 Extreme 22 unhealthy d/yr today · 24 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $41,320
• − Mortgage interest: −$37,979
• − Property taxes: −$6,029
• − Insurance: −$3,390
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$3,306
• − Management: −$3,306
• − HOA: −$2,604
• − Depreciation: −$19,724
• Taxable loss: −$35,016
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$8,404
• After-tax cash flow: $-13,642/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Lincoln Unified
• NCES district ID: 0621690
• Math proficiency: 26% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 41% ▼ -11.00%
• Median HH income: $56,356
• Composite: 29.66/100
• National rank: #6465
• State rank: #284 of 517 in CA

Livability — Stockton

• Score: 57/100
• State rank: #734
• US rank: #21638

Category grades

Amenities A- Commute F Cost of living F Crime F Employment C- Housing A+ Health & safety A User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Stockton, CA
• County: San Joaquin County · 729,570 people
• City population: 332,006
• Metro: Stockton, CA
• Population (ZIP): 31,713
• Household income: $112,268
• Rent vs Own: 39.4% rent · 60.6% own
• Severe rent burden: 825.0

Population outlook (San Joaquin County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 796,965 people
• By 2030: 828,849 · +4.0%
• By 2040: 885,611 · +11.1%
• By 2050: 929,798 · +16.7%
• By 2075: 994,578 · +24.8%
• By 2100: 971,291 · +21.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Highly diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.75)
• Race & ethnicity: White 33% Hispanic / Latino 30% Asian 21% Two or more races 18% Black 9%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 27%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 2% Italian 2% Portuguese 1%
• Foreign-born: 20% · Canada, China, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 69% English-only · Spanish 14% Other Indo-European 4% Other Asian/Pacific 4%

Political lean MEDSL · San Joaquin

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 48.0% · R 48.9% · Other 3.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -11.6pp toward R · 2008: 10.7pp · 2024: -0.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+0.9 2020: D+13.9 2016: D+12.9 2012: D+8.9 2008: D+10.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 69.26%
• Current HPI: 1122.61
• Rent YoY: ▲ 4.16%
• Metro: Stockton, CA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• F500 in state: 116

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	27	$1,492B
▸Financial Services	3	$174B
▸Retail	3	$44B
▸Insurance	3	$26B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
▸Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2020-01-15 Sold (Public Records) $460,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+2.2%/yr

Latest (2025): $6,029 · +2.2% YoY. Source: county tax records.