10231 Burton Path · Conroe, TX 77316

$259,990

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,491 sqft · Land · 117 Days on market

Built 2025 5,265 sqft lot $174/sqft · at area comps Est $269k · at est. $60/mo HOA · 3% of rent ↓ 2% since listing

---

Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +12.8/30.0
• ARV discount +9.0/15.0
• Schools +5.4/10.0
• DSCR +3.8/10.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• 1% rule +2.8/10.0
• Rent growth +2.6/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

READY NOW! The Azalea plan is a modern 3-bedroom, 2-bathroom, and 2-car garage home built by M/I Homes. The open floor plan connects the living room, dining area, and kitchen seamlessly. The kitchen features sleek countertops, modern appliances, and ample cabinet space. This single-story home spans 1,491 sq. ft. and includes 3 bedrooms, an owner's bedroom with an en-suite bathroom, a luxurious walk-in shower, a dual sink vanity, and a soaking tub. Additionally, there are 2 more bedrooms that can be used for guests, children, or a home office, providing versatility to suit your needs. Outside is a covered patio in the backyard for those lovely, cool, peaceful mornings and evenings. The property is located in the tranquil neighborhood of Lone Star Landing, offering easy access to local amenities, schools, parks, and highways. Don't hesitate to get in touch with us to schedule a private showing.

Key facts

• Open floor plan
• Modern appliances
• Covered patio

Tags

• OPEN FLOOR PLAN
• SLEEK COUNTERTOPS
• MODERN APPLIANCES
• AMPLE CABINET SPACE
• COVERED PATIO
• TRANQUIL NEIGHBORHOOD

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath land listed at $260k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-24 ($-287/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $256k (1.6% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $203k (21.9% below list).
• Recommended offer: $203k (21.9% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.2% vs local median 3.1% in Conroe — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#169 in TX, #4,447 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, amenities B; Watch: commute F, health & safety F.
• Montgomery ISD (rural): math 63% / reading 57% proficiency, ranked #49 of 826 in TX (top 6%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Lone Star El (math 57% / reading 61%, grade B-, #455 of 4,322 statewide, top 11%, 766 students, 16% FRL); Montgomery J H (math 68% / reading 54%, grade B+, #145 of 1,662 statewide, top 9%, 1,045 students, 30% FRL); Montgomery H S (math 53% / reading 62%, grade C, #327 of 1,632 statewide, top 20%, 1,556 students, 25% FRL) — zoned schools at 24% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 2300 active listings in the ZIP; high-income renter base; 13,259 units permitted in Montgomery County in 2024 (1,402 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Montgomery County population projected at +65% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 117 days — a 9% lower offer ($237k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Recommended offer $203,139 (21.9% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 117 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 22% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.78% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.18%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.39%
• DSCR: 0.98
• GRM: 10.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $269,006
• List price: $259,990
• Delta: -3.35%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.4% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -19.7%
• Equity multiple: 0.33×
• Total profit: $-48,904
• Equity at exit: $38,765

10-year hold

• IRR: -18.5%
• Equity multiple: 0.11×
• Total profit: $-65,016
• Equity at exit: $22,479

Cash invested: $72,797 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77316

• Home prices YoY: -10.7%
• Rents YoY: 0.4%
• Active inventory: 2300
• Price-to-rent: 10.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,031 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,363
• Tax from tax record: −$97 /mo · $1,163/yr
• Insurance: −$108
• HOA: −$60
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$427
• Net cashflow: $-24

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,062

Max offer price $255,769

Occupancy floor 96%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $123	-5% $50	+0% $-24	+5% $-97	+10% $-171
Rent	-10% $-184	-5% $-104	+0% $-24	+5% $56	+10% $137
Rate	-1.0pp $107	-0.5pp $42	base $-24	+0.5pp $-91	+1.0pp $-160

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $64,998
• Closing costs: $7,800
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $60 · $720/yr

Listing history 15 events

1. 2026-06-02
   statusdays on market $259,990 Pending 117 DOM
2. 2026-06-01
   days on market $259,990 Active 116 DOM
3. 2026-05-31
   days on market $259,990 Active 115 DOM
4. 2026-05-18
   price $259,990 905-char remark

   Show marketing remark (905 chars)

   READY NOW! The Azalea plan is a modern 3-bedroom, 2-bathroom, and 2-car garage home built by M/I Homes. The open floor plan connects the living room, dining area, and kitchen seamlessly. The kitchen features sleek countertops, modern appliances, and ample cabinet space. This single-story home spans 1,491 sq. ft. and includes 3 bedrooms, an owner's bedroom with an en-suite bathroom, a luxurious walk-in shower, a dual sink vanity, and a soaking tub. Additionally, there are 2 more bedrooms that can be used for guests, children, or a home office, providing versatility to suit your needs. Outside is a covered patio in the backyard for those lovely, cool, peaceful mornings and evenings. The property is located in the tranquil neighborhood of Lone Star Landing, offering easy access to local amenities, schools, parks, and highways. Don't hesitate to get in touch with us to schedule a private showing.

5. 2026-05-18
   price $252,990 905-char remark

   Show marketing remark (905 chars)

   READY NOW! The Azalea plan is a modern 3-bedroom, 2-bathroom, and 2-car garage home built by M/I Homes. The open floor plan connects the living room, dining area, and kitchen seamlessly. The kitchen features sleek countertops, modern appliances, and ample cabinet space. This single-story home spans 1,491 sq. ft. and includes 3 bedrooms, an owner's bedroom with an en-suite bathroom, a luxurious walk-in shower, a dual sink vanity, and a soaking tub. Additionally, there are 2 more bedrooms that can be used for guests, children, or a home office, providing versatility to suit your needs. Outside is a covered patio in the backyard for those lovely, cool, peaceful mornings and evenings. The property is located in the tranquil neighborhood of Lone Star Landing, offering easy access to local amenities, schools, parks, and highways. Don't hesitate to get in touch with us to schedule a private showing.

6. 2026-05-05
   price $259,990 1299-char remark

   Show marketing remark (1299 chars)

   Discover this exceptional new construction home located at 10231 Burton Path in Montgomery, TX, featuring a layout that prioritizes natural light and effortless movement throughout the interior. Key Features: • 3 bedrooms with owner's suite in its own private corner • 2 full bathrooms featuring quality finishes • 1,491 square feet of well-planned living space • Open-concept layout that seamlessly connects the main living areas • Fresh construction with contemporary design elements throughout Neighborhood & Location Benefits: • Excellent proximity to local Montgomery parks and green spaces • Situated in a community with high design standards that enhance the living experience • Convenient access to outdoor recreation and area amenities The central living area serves as the heart of the home, fostering a connected environment where common rooms flow together naturally. The owner's suite in its own private corner ensures a quiet retreat, while the additional bedrooms offer flexibility for guest space or a home office. With its functional floorplan and quality craftsmanship, this home delivers a comfortable and move-in ready environment that balances practicality with a desirable location. Schedule your private tour today. MLS# 30741764

7. 2026-05-04
   price $259,990 905-char remark

   Show marketing remark (905 chars)

   READY NOW! The Azalea plan is a modern 3-bedroom, 2-bathroom, and 2-car garage home built by M/I Homes. The open floor plan connects the living room, dining area, and kitchen seamlessly. The kitchen features sleek countertops, modern appliances, and ample cabinet space. This single-story home spans 1,491 sq. ft. and includes 3 bedrooms, an owner's bedroom with an en-suite bathroom, a luxurious walk-in shower, a dual sink vanity, and a soaking tub. Additionally, there are 2 more bedrooms that can be used for guests, children, or a home office, providing versatility to suit your needs. Outside is a covered patio in the backyard for those lovely, cool, peaceful mornings and evenings. The property is located in the tranquil neighborhood of Lone Star Landing, offering easy access to local amenities, schools, parks, and highways. Don't hesitate to get in touch with us to schedule a private showing.

8. 2026-03-31
   price $261,990 1299-char remark

   Show marketing remark (1299 chars)

   Discover this exceptional new construction home located at 10231 Burton Path in Montgomery, TX, featuring a layout that prioritizes natural light and effortless movement throughout the interior. Key Features: • 3 bedrooms with owner's suite in its own private corner • 2 full bathrooms featuring quality finishes • 1,491 square feet of well-planned living space • Open-concept layout that seamlessly connects the main living areas • Fresh construction with contemporary design elements throughout Neighborhood & Location Benefits: • Excellent proximity to local Montgomery parks and green spaces • Situated in a community with high design standards that enhance the living experience • Convenient access to outdoor recreation and area amenities The central living area serves as the heart of the home, fostering a connected environment where common rooms flow together naturally. The owner's suite in its own private corner ensures a quiet retreat, while the additional bedrooms offer flexibility for guest space or a home office. With its functional floorplan and quality craftsmanship, this home delivers a comfortable and move-in ready environment that balances practicality with a desirable location. Schedule your private tour today. MLS# 30741764

9. 2026-03-30
   price $261,990 905-char remark

   Show marketing remark (905 chars)

   READY NOW! The Azalea plan is a modern 3-bedroom, 2-bathroom, and 2-car garage home built by M/I Homes. The open floor plan connects the living room, dining area, and kitchen seamlessly. The kitchen features sleek countertops, modern appliances, and ample cabinet space. This single-story home spans 1,491 sq. ft. and includes 3 bedrooms, an owner's bedroom with an en-suite bathroom, a luxurious walk-in shower, a dual sink vanity, and a soaking tub. Additionally, there are 2 more bedrooms that can be used for guests, children, or a home office, providing versatility to suit your needs. Outside is a covered patio in the backyard for those lovely, cool, peaceful mornings and evenings. The property is located in the tranquil neighborhood of Lone Star Landing, offering easy access to local amenities, schools, parks, and highways. Don't hesitate to get in touch with us to schedule a private showing.

10. 2026-03-24
    price $260,990 1299-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1299 chars)

    Discover this exceptional new construction home located at 10231 Burton Path in Montgomery, TX, featuring a layout that prioritizes natural light and effortless movement throughout the interior. Key Features: • 3 bedrooms with owner's suite in its own private corner • 2 full bathrooms featuring quality finishes • 1,491 square feet of well-planned living space • Open-concept layout that seamlessly connects the main living areas • Fresh construction with contemporary design elements throughout Neighborhood & Location Benefits: • Excellent proximity to local Montgomery parks and green spaces • Situated in a community with high design standards that enhance the living experience • Convenient access to outdoor recreation and area amenities The central living area serves as the heart of the home, fostering a connected environment where common rooms flow together naturally. The owner's suite in its own private corner ensures a quiet retreat, while the additional bedrooms offer flexibility for guest space or a home office. With its functional floorplan and quality craftsmanship, this home delivers a comfortable and move-in ready environment that balances practicality with a desirable location. Schedule your private tour today. MLS# 30741764

11. 2026-03-23
    price $260,990 905-char remark

    Show marketing remark (905 chars)

    READY NOW! The Azalea plan is a modern 3-bedroom, 2-bathroom, and 2-car garage home built by M/I Homes. The open floor plan connects the living room, dining area, and kitchen seamlessly. The kitchen features sleek countertops, modern appliances, and ample cabinet space. This single-story home spans 1,491 sq. ft. and includes 3 bedrooms, an owner's bedroom with an en-suite bathroom, a luxurious walk-in shower, a dual sink vanity, and a soaking tub. Additionally, there are 2 more bedrooms that can be used for guests, children, or a home office, providing versatility to suit your needs. Outside is a covered patio in the backyard for those lovely, cool, peaceful mornings and evenings. The property is located in the tranquil neighborhood of Lone Star Landing, offering easy access to local amenities, schools, parks, and highways. Don't hesitate to get in touch with us to schedule a private showing.

12. 2026-03-03
    price $265,990 1299-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1299 chars)

    Discover this exceptional new construction home located at 10231 Burton Path in Montgomery, TX, featuring a layout that prioritizes natural light and effortless movement throughout the interior. Key Features: • 3 bedrooms with owner's suite in its own private corner • 2 full bathrooms featuring quality finishes • 1,491 square feet of well-planned living space • Open-concept layout that seamlessly connects the main living areas • Fresh construction with contemporary design elements throughout Neighborhood & Location Benefits: • Excellent proximity to local Montgomery parks and green spaces • Situated in a community with high design standards that enhance the living experience • Convenient access to outdoor recreation and area amenities The central living area serves as the heart of the home, fostering a connected environment where common rooms flow together naturally. The owner's suite in its own private corner ensures a quiet retreat, while the additional bedrooms offer flexibility for guest space or a home office. With its functional floorplan and quality craftsmanship, this home delivers a comfortable and move-in ready environment that balances practicality with a desirable location. Schedule your private tour today. MLS# 30741764

13. 2026-03-02
    price $265,990 905-char remark

    Show marketing remark (905 chars)

    READY NOW! The Azalea plan is a modern 3-bedroom, 2-bathroom, and 2-car garage home built by M/I Homes. The open floor plan connects the living room, dining area, and kitchen seamlessly. The kitchen features sleek countertops, modern appliances, and ample cabinet space. This single-story home spans 1,491 sq. ft. and includes 3 bedrooms, an owner's bedroom with an en-suite bathroom, a luxurious walk-in shower, a dual sink vanity, and a soaking tub. Additionally, there are 2 more bedrooms that can be used for guests, children, or a home office, providing versatility to suit your needs. Outside is a covered patio in the backyard for those lovely, cool, peaceful mornings and evenings. The property is located in the tranquil neighborhood of Lone Star Landing, offering easy access to local amenities, schools, parks, and highways. Don't hesitate to get in touch with us to schedule a private showing.

14. 2026-02-06
    listed $263,990 Active 1299-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1299 chars)

    Discover this exceptional new construction home located at 10231 Burton Path in Montgomery, TX, featuring a layout that prioritizes natural light and effortless movement throughout the interior. Key Features: • 3 bedrooms with owner's suite in its own private corner • 2 full bathrooms featuring quality finishes • 1,491 square feet of well-planned living space • Open-concept layout that seamlessly connects the main living areas • Fresh construction with contemporary design elements throughout Neighborhood & Location Benefits: • Excellent proximity to local Montgomery parks and green spaces • Situated in a community with high design standards that enhance the living experience • Convenient access to outdoor recreation and area amenities The central living area serves as the heart of the home, fostering a connected environment where common rooms flow together naturally. The owner's suite in its own private corner ensures a quiet retreat, while the additional bedrooms offer flexibility for guest space or a home office. With its functional floorplan and quality craftsmanship, this home delivers a comfortable and move-in ready environment that balances practicality with a desirable location. Schedule your private tour today. MLS# 30741764

15. 2026-02-05
    listed $263,990 Active 905-char remark

    Show marketing remark (905 chars)

    READY NOW! The Azalea plan is a modern 3-bedroom, 2-bathroom, and 2-car garage home built by M/I Homes. The open floor plan connects the living room, dining area, and kitchen seamlessly. The kitchen features sleek countertops, modern appliances, and ample cabinet space. This single-story home spans 1,491 sq. ft. and includes 3 bedrooms, an owner's bedroom with an en-suite bathroom, a luxurious walk-in shower, a dual sink vanity, and a soaking tub. Additionally, there are 2 more bedrooms that can be used for guests, children, or a home office, providing versatility to suit your needs. Outside is a covered patio in the backyard for those lovely, cool, peaceful mornings and evenings. The property is located in the tranquil neighborhood of Lone Star Landing, offering easy access to local amenities, schools, parks, and highways. Don't hesitate to get in touch with us to schedule a private showing.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,163 · $97/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $4,758 · $396/mo
• Expected delta: +$3,594/yr (+$300/mo · 309.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $24,377
• − Mortgage interest: −$14,563
• − Property taxes: −$1,163
• − Insurance: −$1,300
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,950
• − Management: −$1,950
• − HOA: −$720
• − Depreciation: −$7,563
• Taxable loss: −$4,834
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,160
• After-tax cash flow: $873/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Montgomery ISD
• NCES district ID: 4831260
• Math proficiency: 63% ▼ -3.00%
• Reading proficiency: 57% ▼ -3.00%
• Median HH income: $75,596
• Composite: 53.55/100
• National rank: #1445
• State rank: #49 of 826 in TX

Livability — Conroe

• Score: 74/100
• State rank: #169
• US rank: #4447

Category grades

Amenities B Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B- Employment B- Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Montgomery County · 663,713 people
• City population: 205,417
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 34,694
• Household income: $124,055
• Rent vs Own: 10.9% rent · 89.1% own
• Severe rent burden: 273.0

Population outlook (Montgomery County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 713,896 people
• By 2030: 805,263 · +12.8%
• By 2040: 992,708 · +39.1%
• By 2050: 1,179,590 · +65.2%
• By 2075: 1,628,084 · +128.1%
• By 2100: 1,937,880 · +171.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (80%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 80% Hispanic / Latino 14% Two or more races 11% Black 1% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 9%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 6% Slovak 3% Romanian 3%
• Foreign-born: 6% · Canada
• Languages at home: 90% English-only · Spanish 8%

Political lean MEDSL · Montgomery

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+45.5) · D 26.8% · R 72.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: +7.2pp toward D · 2008: -52.7pp · 2024: -45.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+45.5 2020: R+43.8 2016: R+51.4 2012: R+60.7 2008: R+52.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -31.44%
• Current HPI: 262.6973
• Rent YoY: ▲ 0.40%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-1.5% since first listed

12 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-18 Price Changed $259,990 HARMLS
• 2026-05-18 Price Changed $252,990 HARMLS
• 2026-05-05 Price Changed $259,990 Zillow
• 2026-05-04 Price Changed $259,990 HARMLS
• 2026-03-31 Price Changed $261,990 Zillow
• 2026-03-30 Price Changed $261,990 HARMLS
• 2026-03-24 Price Changed $260,990 Zillow
• 2026-03-23 Price Changed $260,990 HARMLS
• 2026-03-03 Price Changed $265,990 Zillow
• 2026-03-02 Price Changed $265,990 HARMLS
• 2026-02-06 Listed $263,990 Zillow
• 2026-02-05 Listed $263,990 HARMLS

Property tax history

-0.2%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,163 · -0.2% YoY. Source: county tax records.