15111 E 44th St · Independence, MO 64055

$199,500

5 bd · 3.5 ba · 2,805 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 4 Days on market

Built 1975 0.39 ac lot Est $331k · 40% under

---

Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Cash flow +13.3/30.0
• 1% rule +4.6/10.0
• Livability +4.1/5.0
• DSCR +4.0/10.0
• Rent growth +3.8/5.0
• Schools +2.7/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Marble Entry, Bookcases On Each Side Of Fireplace, 2 Tier Deck, Wet Bar, Tongue & Groove Walls In Fam Rm, Ceramic Kitchen & Brkfst Rm Floor, Sunken Tub, E-Z 2nd Living Area In Finishd Bsmt, 2 Ovens, Pantry, New Roof, New Garage Door.

Key facts

• 0.39 acre lot
• 2 garage spots
• Built 1975

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Corner lot dimensions approximately 110 x 140 feet
• HOA & community: Homeowners association present

Exterior

• Parking: Attached garage facing front; 2-car garage
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer
• Home design: Single family residence; Residential property; 1.5-story floor plan
• Construction: Brick trim exterior; Composition roof
• Exterior features: Deck; Corner lot; Property not in a flood plain

Interior

• Kitchen: Electric range; Dishwasher; Garbage disposal; Eat-in kitchen with breakfast area and formal dining area
• Bedrooms: 4 bedrooms (beds located on first and second levels)
• Flooring: Finished basement flooring
• Bathrooms: 3 full bathrooms; 2 half bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Forced air heating (natural gas); Electric cooling
• Interior features: Vaulted ceilings; Wet bar; Window coverings; Finished walk-out basement; Concrete full basement
• Laundry & utility: Laundry located in the kitchen

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 5-bed/3.5-bath single-family listed at $200k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $0 ($-3/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $199k (0.0% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $191k (4.4% below list).
• Recommended offer: $191k (4.4% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.3% vs local median 5.0% in Independence — meaningfully above typical; check what's discounted (condition, days-on-market, listing class) to confirm the premium yield is real.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 82/100 on livability (#10 in MO, #1,296 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, cost of living A+; Watch: employment D+, crime F.
• Independence 30 (suburban): math 26% / reading 38% proficiency, ranked #252 of 324 in MO (top 78%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: William Southern Elem. (math 27% / reading 37%, grade F, #761 of 1,115 statewide, top 72%, 430 students, 73% FRL); Bridger Middle (math 32% / reading 38%, grade F, #240 of 391 statewide, top 62%, 770 students, 65% FRL); Truman High (math 18% / reading 34%, grade F, #430 of 521 statewide, top 83%, 1,662 students, 52% FRL) — zoned schools at 63% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+5.1%/yr); 203 active listings in the ZIP; 4,002 units permitted in Jackson County in 2024 (2,271 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 37% of the median local income ($62k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Jackson County population projected at +4% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.

Negotiation context

• Only 4 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.

Recommended offer $190,687 (4.4% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. Built in 1975 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.96% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.29%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.01%
• DSCR: 1.00
• GRM: 8.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $330,990
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
4336 S Dover Ave	0.18mi	5/2.5	2,889 (+3%)	11mo	$275,000	$95	74
14613 E 44th St S	0.28mi	4/2.5 (-1)	2,898 (+3%)	8mo	$275,000	$95	66
14930 Tomasha Dr	0.13mi	4/3.0 (-1)	2,416 (-14%)	2mo	$325,000	$135	62
15501 E 43rd Ter S	0.29mi	4/4.0 (-1)	2,556 (-9%)	3mo	$310,000	$121	62
14600 E 43rd St S	0.42mi	4/3.5 (-1)	2,581 (-8%)	4mo	$275,000	$107	58
4822 Logan Ave	0.54mi	4/3.5 (-1)	2,910 (+4%)	8mo	$420,000	$144	57
4309 S Huntington Way	0.44mi	4/3.5 (-1)	2,612 (-7%)	11mo	$340,000	$130	54
4309 S Cromwell Dr	0.32mi	5/3.0	2,410 (-14%)	11mo	$349,900	$145	50
14501 Tomasha Dr	0.41mi	4/2.5 (-1)	2,563 (-9%)	15mo	$289,000	$113	45
3912 S Christopher Cir	0.68mi	4/3.0 (-1)	3,168 (+13%)	0mo	$325,000	$103	39
14617 E 41st St S	0.59mi	4/2.5 (-1)	2,516 (-10%)	10mo	$250,000	$99	37
14403 E 49th Ter	0.72mi	4/2.0 (-1)	2,432 (-13%)	14mo	$287,000	$118	22

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 5.09% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -13.7%
• Equity multiple: 0.50×
• Total profit: $-28,144
• Equity at exit: $29,746

10-year hold

• IRR: -1.6%
• Equity multiple: 0.88×
• Total profit: $-6,562
• Equity at exit: $17,249

Cash invested: $55,860 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 81 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Missouri: 81 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Generally landlord-friendly; St Louis has some habitability requirements.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 64055

• Rents YoY: 5.1%
• Active inventory: 203
• Price-to-rent: 8.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,907 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,046
• Tax from tax record: −$377 /mo · $4,529/yr
• Insurance: −$83
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$400
• Net cashflow: $-0

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,907

Max offer price $199,451

Occupancy floor 95%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $113	-5% $56	+0% $0	+5% $-57	+10% $-113
Rent	-10% $-151	-5% $-76	+0% $0	+5% $75	+10% $150
Rate	-1.0pp $100	-0.5pp $50	base $0	+0.5pp $-52	+1.0pp $-105

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $49,875
• Closing costs: $5,985
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 2 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $199,500 Coming Soon 4 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   listed $199,500 Coming Soon 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MO · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $4,529 · $377/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $4,529 · $377/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 4/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥107°F today · 17 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $22,882
• − Mortgage interest: −$11,175
• − Property taxes: −$4,529
• − Insurance: −$998
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,831
• − Management: −$1,831
• − Depreciation: −$5,804
• Taxable loss: −$3,284
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$788
• After-tax cash flow: $785/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Independence 30
• NCES district ID: 2915480
• Math proficiency: 26% ▼ -8.00%
• Reading proficiency: 38% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $41,843
• Composite: 27.04/100
• National rank: #7054
• State rank: #252 of 324 in MO

Livability — Independence

• Score: 82/100
• State rank: #10
• US rank: #1296

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A+ Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment D+ Housing A+ Health & safety A User ratings B-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Independence, MO
• County: Jackson County · 687,798 people
• City population: 117,675
• Metro: Kansas City, MO-KS
• Population (ZIP): 35,960
• Household income: $62,439
• Rent vs Own: 30.4% rent · 69.6% own
• Severe rent burden: 1404.0

Population outlook (Jackson County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 719,589 people
• By 2030: 731,456 · +1.6%
• By 2040: 746,689 · +3.8%
• By 2050: 749,289 · +4.1%
• By 2075: 736,227 · +2.3%
• By 2100: 668,210 · -7.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (71%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 71% Black 13% Hispanic / Latino 10% Two or more races 8% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 7% Puerto Rican 2%
• Common ancestry: Italian 9% Lithuanian 2% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 4% · Canada
• Languages at home: 94% English-only · Spanish 4%

Political lean MEDSL · Jackson

• 2024 margin: D (+19.3) · D 58.9% · R 39.5% · Other 1.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: -6.1pp toward R · 2008: 25.4pp · 2024: 19.3pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+19.3 2020: D+22.0 2016: D+16.6 2012: D+19.0 2008: D+25.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -180.54%
• Current HPI: 245.3636
• Rent YoY: ▲ 5.09%
• Metro: Kansas City, MO-KS
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.84%
• F500 in state: 20

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MO)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	1	$163B
▸Insurance	1	$21B
▸Industrial Technology	1	$17B
▸Retail	1	$16B
▸Industrial Distribution	1	$10B
▸Utilities	1	$9B

Price history

+20.3% since first listed

6 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-17 Coming Soon $199,500 Heartland MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 1998-10-01 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 1998-10-01 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 1998-09-29 Sold (MLS) — Heartland MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 1998-06-10 Listed $165,900 Heartland MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 1994-02-08 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+5.3%/yr

Latest (2025): $4,529 · +18.6% YoY. Source: county tax records.