5 Timberwolf Rd Unit 10-68 · Liberty, NY 12754

$189,000

1 bd · 1.0 ba · 717 sqft · Condo public records · 13 Days on market

Built 2005 $157/mo HOA · 10% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Cash flow +6.8/30.0
• 1% rule +3.5/10.0
• Livability +3.1/5.0
• Schools +2.8/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• DSCR +1.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Location. .Location. School Bell Townhouses. .. 1 Bedroom and 1 full Bathroom townhouse Just above the Liberty Middle School/High School. .great location. .minutes to shopping. . restaurants. .route 17. . casino . .water park and bethel woods . .2 hours to NYC and 30 minutes to Middletown NY. .workable floor plan so easy to navigate the space . .

Key facts

• $157 HOA
• Built 2005
• Listed 13 days

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: Has association; Association fee $157 per month; Association covers common area maintenance, snow removal, and trash

Exterior

• Parking: Common off-street parking
• Utilities: Public sewer; Cable connected; Electricity connected; Sewer connected; Trash collection (private); Water connected
• Home design: Townhouse; Condominium; Measured living area
• Construction: Partial, unfinished attic; No basement
• Exterior features: Aluminum siding; Vinyl siding; Not waterfront

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Electric cooktop; Electric oven; Oven; Refrigerator; Exhaust fan
• Bedrooms: Entry level: 1
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Baseboard heating; No central cooling
• Interior features: First-floor bedroom; Eat-in kitchen; High-speed internet; Open floor plan; Open kitchen
• Laundry & utility: Electric water heater

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 1-bed/1.0-bath condo listed at $189k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-298 ($-4k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $136k (27.8% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $161k (14.8% below list).
• Recommended offer: $136k (27.8% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 62/100 on livability (#890 in NY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, health & safety A+, housing B+; Watch: crime D+, amenities F, commute F.
• Liberty Central School District (town): math 31% / reading 34% proficiency, ranked #569 of 590 in NY (top 96%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Liberty Elementary School (math 27% / reading 42%, grade F, #1,577 of 2,108 statewide, top 77%, 691 students, 64% FRL); Liberty Middle School (math 12% / reading 29%, grade F, #664 of 729 statewide, top 91%, 529 students, 68% FRL); Liberty High School (math 92% / reading 70%, grade A, #495 of 1,100 statewide, top 46%, 596 students, 62% FRL) — zoned schools average 65% FRL vs 48% district-wide (16 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 45% at this address vs 32% district-wide (+13 pts) — the actual schools serving this property are materially stronger than the Liberty Central School District average implies; a family-tenant draw the district grade alone would hide.
• Market conditions: 65 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 739 units permitted in Sullivan County in 2024 (5 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $20k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $19k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Sullivan County population projected at -24% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$32k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• Only 13 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.

Recommended offer $136,395 (27.8% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Any open or pending special assessments — roof, HVAC, plumbing, elevator, façade? What's the per-unit balance and payoff schedule, and is the seller paying it off at close or rolling it to the buyer?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.85% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.40%
• Cash-on-cash: -6.75%
• DSCR: 0.70
• GRM: 9.8

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 19.5%
• Equity multiple: 2.59×
• Total profit: $84,155
• Equity at exit: $170,266

10-year hold

• IRR: 18.0%
• Equity multiple: 5.97×
• Total profit: $263,107
• Equity at exit: $367,185

Cash invested: $52,920 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 12754

• Home prices YoY: 28.0%
• Active inventory: 65
• Price-to-rent: 9.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,610 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$991
• Tax from tax record: −$343 /mo · $4,113/yr
• Insurance: −$79
• HOA: −$157
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$338
• Net cashflow: $-298

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,987

Max offer price $136,395

Occupancy floor —

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $47,250
• Closing costs: $5,670
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 2 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
221 Chestnut St Unit 3 Liberty, NY	2.0	1.0	750	$1,750	$2.33	23d	1	0.54mi
221 Chestnut St Unit 1 Liberty, NY	2.0	1.0	600	$1,450	$2.42	23d	1	0.54mi

HOA detail condo

• Monthly dues: $157 · $1,884/yr
• Likely covers: water
• Assessments: None detected in remarks — confirm with the listing agent.

Listing history 12 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $189,000 Active 13 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $189,000 Active 12 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $189,000 Active 11 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $189,000 Active 10 DOM
5. 2026-06-14
   days on market $189,000 Active 8 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $189,000 Active 7 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   days on market $189,000 Active 5 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $189,000 Active 4 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   remarks 349-char remark
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $189,000 Active 3 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    remarks 313-char remark
12. 2026-06-07
    listed $189,000 Active 2 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NY · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $4,113 · $343/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $4,113 · $343/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $19,320
• − Mortgage interest: −$10,587
• − Property taxes: −$4,113
• − Insurance: −$945
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,546
• − Management: −$1,546
• − HOA: −$1,884
• − Depreciation: −$5,498
• Taxable loss: −$6,799
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,632
• After-tax cash flow: $-1,942/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Liberty Central School District
• NCES district ID: 3617220
• Math proficiency: 31% ▼ -8.00%
• Reading proficiency: 34% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $43,542
• Composite: 27.65/100
• National rank: #6920
• State rank: #569 of 590 in NY

Livability — Liberty

• Score: 62/100
• State rank: #890
• US rank: #17254

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime D+ Employment F Housing B+ Health & safety A+ User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Liberty, NY
• City population: 8,525
• Population (ZIP): 8,525

Population outlook (Sullivan County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 68,974 people
• By 2030: 65,609 · -4.9%
• By 2040: 58,878 · -14.6%
• By 2050: 52,500 · -23.9%
• By 2075: 39,941 · -42.1%
• By 2100: 28,880 · -58.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.56)
• Race & ethnicity: White 56% Hispanic / Latino 36% Two or more races 8% Black 4% Asian 2% Native American 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 3% Puerto Rican 7% Dominican 2%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 3% Lithuanian 2% Scotch-Irish 1%
• Foreign-born: 22% · Canada, Dominican Republic, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 71% English-only · Spanish 25% Other Indo-European 2% French/Haitian/Cajun 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Sullivan

• 2024 margin: R (+16.7) · D 41.6% · R 58.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: -26.2pp toward R · 2008: 9.5pp · 2024: -16.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+16.7 2020: R+9.2 2016: R+13.7 2012: D+10.4 2008: D+9.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 100.10%
• Current HPI: 457.3342
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-06-05 Listed $189,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid

Property tax history

+1.1%/yr

Latest (2025): $4,113 · +7.8% YoY. Source: county tax records.