16879 Buckwood Trl · Splendora, TX 77357

$232,991

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,717 sqft · SingleFamily · 101 Days on market

Built 2026 Excellent condition $192/mo HOA · 10% of rent ↓ 19% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Cash flow +5.5/30.0
• Condition / age +4.8/5.0
• Livability +3.1/5.0
• Schools +2.9/10.0
• Rent growth +2.6/5.0
• 1% rule +1.9/10.0
• DSCR +0.0/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

This new single-level home provides ample space to live and grow. An open-concept floorplan combines the kitchen, dining area and family room, with convenient access to a covered patio for seamless entertaining and relaxation. Two secondary bedrooms can be found off the foyer, and the luxe owner's suite is tucked away into a private corner at the back of the home, offering direct access to an en-suite bathroom and roomy walk-in closet.

Key facts

• Walk-in closet
• Covered patio
• Luxe owner’s suite

Tags

• OPEN-CONCEPT FLOORPLAN
• COVERED PATIO
• LUXE OWNER’S SUITE
• EN-SUITE BATHROOM
• WALK-IN CLOSET

🏗️ New construction. The $232,991 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $292,577.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $233k. Condition is rated excellent.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-630 ($-8k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $201k (13.5% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $201k (13.9% below list).
• Recommended offer: $201k (13.9% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 3.7% vs local median 5.2% in Splendora — below-typical yield; the buyer is paying a premium for something (appreciation thesis, condition, location) that the cap rate doesn't capture.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 62/100 on livability (#911 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Splendora ISD (rural): math 25% / reading 31% proficiency, ranked #648 of 826 in TX (top 78%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Zoned schools: Timber Lakes El (math 23% / reading 22%, grade F, #3,311 of 4,322 statewide, top 77%, 860 students, 63% FRL); Splendora J H (math 28% / reading 42%, grade F, #842 of 1,662 statewide, top 51%, 774 students, 62% FRL); Splendora H S (math 18% / reading 38%, grade F, #1,170 of 1,632 statewide, top 72%, 1,344 students, 59% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 1413 active listings in the ZIP; 8 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 45d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 62% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; solid renter incomes; 13,259 units permitted in Montgomery County in 2024 (1,402 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 32% of the median local income ($76k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $9k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Montgomery County population projected at +65% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 101 days — a 9% lower offer ($212k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 4 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $32k (12%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Recommended offer $200,510 (13.9% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 101 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 14% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.69% ✗
• Cap rate: 3.71%
• Cash-on-cash: -9.23%
• DSCR: 0.59
• GRM: 12.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $292,577
• List price: $232,991
• Delta: -20.37%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
16558 Timberwolf Trl	0.01mi	3/2.0	1,635 (-5%)	2mo	$231,890	$142	90
16620 Treasure Creek Ln	0.01mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,760 (+2%)	1mo	$236,990	$135	90
16554 Timberwolf Trl	0.00mi	3/2.0	1,572 (-8%)	2mo	$248,990	$158	84
16546 Timberwolf Trl	0.01mi	4/3.0 (+1)	1,868 (+9%)	1mo	$263,990	$141	75
16270 Bergara Bend Dr	0.01mi	3/2.0	1,461 (-15%)	1mo	$194,990	$133	74
16261 Bergara Bend Dr	0.01mi	3/2.0	1,461 (-15%)	1mo	$191,990	$131	74
16503 Ithaca Pheasant Dr	0.14mi	3/2.0	1,522 (-11%)	2mo	$213,990	$141	73
16523 Ithaca Pheasant Dr	0.00mi	4/2.5 (+1)	1,968 (+15%)	2mo	$242,990	$123	67
21714 Southern Valley Ln	0.29mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,892 (+10%)	2mo	$294,990	$156	63
21054 Wenze Ln	0.69mi	3/2.0	1,760 (+2%)	2mo	$240,000	$136	62
21718 Piper Betel Rd	0.74mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,750 (+2%)	2mo	$279,990	$160	56
21310 Black Leaf Dr	0.73mi	3/2.5	1,858 (+8%)	1mo	$219,000	$118	50

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.21% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -36.2%
• Equity multiple: -0.13×
• Total profit: $-92,857
• Equity at exit: $43,624

10-year hold

• IRR: -74.1%
• Equity multiple: -0.87×
• Total profit: $-153,167
• Equity at exit: $25,297

Cash invested: $81,922 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

Buyer's market Market conditions within 1.0 mi — comparable homes for sale

Active competition Active MLS

• For sale now: 166 active · 97 under contract
• Months of supply: 13.8 mo (7%/mo absorbed)
• Median asking: $253,490 ($146/sqft)
• Median days on market: 86 d
• This list price: 31% of active listings are priced below it
• ARV vs active asking: +16.6% above current asking $/sqft

Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.

ZIP-level market 77357

• Home prices YoY: -24.7%
• Rents YoY: 0.2%
• Active inventory: 1413
• Price-to-rent: 9.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,005 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,534
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$366 /mo · $4,389/yr
• Insurance: −$122
• HOA: −$192
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$421
• Net cashflow: $-630

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,802

Max offer price $201,429

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-428	-5% $-529	+0% $-630	+5% $-731	+10% $-832
Rent	-10% $-788	-5% $-709	+0% $-630	+5% $-551	+10% $-472
Rate	-1.0pp $-483	-0.5pp $-555	base $-630	+0.5pp $-706	+1.0pp $-783

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $73,144
• Closing costs: $8,777
• Club membership (one-time): —
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 8 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
21500 Rustic Elm Dr New Caney, TX	4.0	3.0	2173	$1,925	$0.89	29d	1	0.41mi
21501 Rustic Elm Dr New Caney, TX	4.0	2.0	1774	$1,825	$1.03	31d	1	0.41mi
15019 Ashton Meadows Dr New Caney, TX	3.0	2.0	1501	$1,790	$1.19	120d	1	0.61mi
15171 Willow Tree Ln New Caney, TX	3.0	2.0	1545	$1,650	$1.07	61d	1	0.63mi
21655 Cottage Ln New Caney, TX	4.0	2.5	2095	$2,200	$1.05	7d	1	0.66mi
15127 Willow Tree Ln New Caney, TX	3.0	2.0	1760	$2,200	$1.25	45d	1	0.66mi
15815 Kropik Rd Conroe, TX	2.0	2.0	1484	$1,495	$1.01	45d	1	0.87mi
14255 Timber Fields Way Splendora, TX	3.0–4.0	2.0–2.5	1797	$1,647	$0.92	20d	60	1.04mi

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: Timbers Edge Community AssociationAssociation fee $2,300 annually

Exterior

• Utilities: Public waterPublic sewer
• Home design: Residential propertyUnder construction (new construction)Single-story (first floor living listed)
• Construction: Built in 2026Brick constructionComposition roofSlab foundationBuilt by Lennar Homes
• Exterior features: Located in a subdivision

Interior

• Kitchen: DishwasherElectric ovenElectric rangeGas ovenGas range
• Bedrooms: Primary bedroom (First floor) — 12 x 14Bedroom (First floor) — 10 x 12Bedroom (First floor) — 10 x 12
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (electric and gas)Central air (electric and gas)
• Interior features: Breakfast barDouble vanityKitchen open to family roomTub/shower
• Laundry & utility: Washer hookupElectric dryer hookupGas dryer hookup

Listing history 50 events

1. 2026-09-24
   days on market $232,991 Active 101 DOM
2. 2026-09-23
   days on market $232,991 Active 100 DOM
3. 2026-09-22
   days on market $232,991 Active 99 DOM
4. 2026-09-21
   days on market $232,991 Active 98 DOM
5. 2026-09-20
   days on market $232,991 Active 97 DOM
6. 2026-09-19
   days on market $232,991 Active 96 DOM
7. 2026-09-18
   pricedays on market $232,991 Active 95 DOM
8. 2026-09-17
   days on market $237,991 Active 94 DOM
9. 2026-09-16
   days on market $237,991 Active 93 DOM
10. 2026-09-15
    days on market $237,991 Active 92 DOM
11. 2026-09-14
    pricestatus $237,991 Active 91 DOM
12. 2026-09-03
    statusdays on market $227,991 Pending 91 DOM
13. 2026-08-31
    days on market $227,991 Active 89 DOM
14. 2026-08-29
    days on market $227,991 Active 87 DOM
15. 2026-08-28
    days on market $227,991 Active 86 DOM
16. 2026-08-27
    pricedays on market $227,991 Active 85 DOM
17. 2026-08-25
    days on market $232,991 Active 83 DOM
18. 2026-08-24
    days on market $232,991 Active 82 DOM
19. 2026-08-23
    days on market $232,991 Active 81 DOM
20. 2026-08-22
    days on market $232,991 Active 80 DOM
21. 2026-08-21
    days on market $232,991 Active 79 DOM
22. 2026-08-20
    days on market $232,991 Active 78 DOM
23. 2026-08-19
    days on market $232,991 Active 77 DOM
24. 2026-08-18
    days on market $232,991 Active 76 DOM
25. 2026-08-17
    days on market $232,991 Active 75 DOM
26. 2026-08-16
    days on market $232,991 Active 74 DOM
27. 2026-08-15
    days on market $232,991 Active 73 DOM
28. 2026-08-14
    days on market $232,991 Active 72 DOM
29. 2026-08-13
    days on market $232,991 Active 71 DOM
30. 2026-08-12
    days on market $232,991 Active 70 DOM
31. 2026-08-11
    days on market $232,991 Active 69 DOM
32. 2026-08-10
    days on market $232,991 Active 68 DOM
33. 2026-08-09
    days on market $232,991 Active 67 DOM
34. 2026-08-08
    days on market $232,991 Active 66 DOM
35. 2026-08-06
    days on market $232,991 Active 64 DOM
36. 2026-08-05
    days on market $232,991 Active 63 DOM
37. 2026-08-04
    days on market $232,991 Active 62 DOM
38. 2026-08-03
    days on market $232,991 Active 61 DOM
39. 2026-07-31
    days on market $232,991 Active 58 DOM
40. 2026-07-30
    days on market $232,991 Active 57 DOM
41. 2026-07-30
    days on market $232,991 Active 56 DOM
42. 2026-07-28
    days on market $232,991 Active 55 DOM
43. 2026-07-26
    days on market $232,991 Active 53 DOM
44. 2026-07-24
    days on market $232,991 Active 51 DOM
45. 2026-07-23
    days on market $232,991 Active 50 DOM
46. 2026-07-22
    days on market $232,991 Active 49 DOM
47. 2026-07-21
    days on market $232,991 Active 48 DOM
48. 2026-07-20
    days on market $232,991 Active 47 DOM
49. 2026-07-18
    days on market $232,991 Active 45 DOM
50. 2026-07-18
    days on market $232,991 Active 44 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $24,061
• − Mortgage interest: −$16,389
• − Property taxes: −$4,389
• − Insurance: −$1,463
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,925
• − Management: −$1,925
• − HOA: −$2,304
• − Depreciation: −$8,511
• Taxable loss: −$12,844
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$3,083
• After-tax cash flow: $-4,476/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 13 photos

Excellent 95/100 None rehab

This new single-level home is in excellent condition with no visible repairs needed. It offers ample space and an open-concept floorplan, making it ideal for both resale and rental.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Landscaping — Enhances curb appeal and adds value ↑
• Both Painting — Fresh paint can make the home look more inviting ↑
• Both Lighting — Improved lighting can make the home more appealing ↑

F Composite school gradezoned avg 28/100

Zoned Schools

Elementary Timber Lakes El F TX #3,311/4,322 Nat'l #31,832/41,679 Middle Splendora J H F TX #842/1,662 Nat'l #7,460/14,009 High Splendora H S F TX #1,170/1,632 Nat'l #11,740/17,239

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Splendora ISD
• NCES district ID: 4841070
• Math proficiency: 25% ▼ -8.00%
• Reading proficiency: 31% ▼ -1.00%
• Median HH income: $54,166
• Composite: 24.92/100
• National rank: #7572
• State rank: #648 of 826 in TX

C Composite livability gradescore 62/100

Livability — Splendora

• Score: 62/100
• State rank: #911
• US rank: #16335

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime C Employment C+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Montgomery County · 713,896 people
• City population: 37,592
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 37,592
• Household income: $76,050
• Rent vs Own: 26.1% rent · 73.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 21% of renters

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Population outlook (Montgomery County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 713,896 people
• By 2030: 805,263 · +12.8%
• By 2040: 992,708 · +39.1%
• By 2050: 1,179,590 · +65.2%
• By 2075: 1,628,084 · +128.1%
• By 2100: 1,937,880 · +171.5%

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Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.56)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 49% White 45% Two or more races 31% Black 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 40%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 2% Romanian 1% Iranian 1%
• Foreign-born: 23% · Canada, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 58% English-only · Spanish 40% Other Indo-European 1%

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Political lean MEDSL · Montgomery

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+45.5) · D 26.8% · R 72.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: +7.2pp toward D · 2008: -52.7pp · 2024: -45.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+45.5 2020: R+43.8 2016: R+51.4 2012: R+60.7 2008: R+52.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -87.71%
• Current HPI: 266.8315
• Rent YoY: ▲ 0.21%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

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Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: Timbers Edge Community AssociationAssociation fee $2,300 annually

Exterior

• Utilities: Public waterPublic sewer
• Home design: Residential propertyUnder construction (new construction)Single-story (first floor living listed)
• Construction: Built in 2026Brick constructionComposition roofSlab foundationBuilt by Lennar Homes
• Exterior features: Located in a subdivision

Interior

• Kitchen: DishwasherElectric ovenElectric rangeGas ovenGas range
• Bedrooms: Primary bedroom (First floor) — 12 x 14Bedroom (First floor) — 10 x 12Bedroom (First floor) — 10 x 12
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (electric and gas)Central air (electric and gas)
• Interior features: Breakfast barDouble vanityKitchen open to family roomTub/shower
• Laundry & utility: Washer hookupElectric dryer hookupGas dryer hookup

Price history

-18.5% since first listed

17 events — show timeline

• 2026-07-14 Price Changed $232,991 Zillow
• 2026-07-13 Price Changed $232,991 HARMLS
• 2026-07-11 Price Changed $243,991 Zillow
• 2026-07-10 Price Changed $243,991 HARMLS
• 2026-06-18 Price Changed $253,990 Zillow
• 2026-06-16 Price Changed $253,990 HARMLS
• 2026-06-09 Price Changed $259,990 Zillow
• 2026-06-08 Price Changed $259,990 HARMLS
• 2026-06-03 Listed $264,740 HARMLS
• 2026-06-02 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2026-05-27 Price Changed $264,740 HARMLS
• 2026-05-27 Relisted — Zillow
• 2026-05-27 Price Changed $264,740 Zillow
• 2026-05-08 Delisted — Zillow
• 2026-05-07 Listed $268,940 HARMLS
• 2026-05-05 Price Changed $268,940 Zillow
• 2026-05-02 Listed $285,990 Zillow