5 Kenny Ln · Kiamesha Lake, NY 12751

$199,000

2 bd · 1.5 ba · 1,350 sqft · Condo · 40 Days on market

Built 1987 $147/sqft · 13% below area Est $230k · 13% under $250/mo HOA · 14% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +13.6/15.0
• Cash flow +9.3/30.0
• Appreciation +9.3/10.0
• 1% rule +4.1/10.0
• DSCR +2.6/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.5/10.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks

Lovely Townhouse in The Waterways just outside of Monticello, N. Y. Home has 2 Bedrooms - A den - 1 1/2 bath with a full basement. There is a community pool and Lake rights to Kiamesha Lake.

Key facts

• Lake rights
• Garage
• Community pool

Tags

• LAKE RIGHTS

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.5-bath condo listed at $199k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-145 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $173k (12.9% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $180k (9.3% below list).
• Recommended offer: $173k (12.9% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade D — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Monticello Central School District (town): math 29% / reading 30% proficiency, ranked #577 of 590 in NY (top 98%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Zoned schools: George L Cooke School (592 students, 71% FRL); Robert J Kaiser Middle School (math 7% / reading 35%, grade F, #661 of 729 statewide, top 91%, 595 students, 66% FRL); Monticello High School (math 82% / reading 34%, grade C, #879 of 1,100 statewide, top 80%, 844 students, 63% FRL) — zoned schools average 67% FRL vs 50% district-wide (16 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: 19 active listings in the ZIP; 9 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 16d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 739 units permitted in Sullivan County in 2024 (5 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $19k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $17k appreciation (8.7% local appreciation)).
• Sullivan County population projected at -24% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• By year 3, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$47k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 40 days — a 3% lower offer ($193k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts since 7y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $112k; list at $199k implies a 77% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Recommended offer $173,374 (12.9% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 40 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 13% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Any open or pending special assessments — roof, HVAC, plumbing, elevator, façade? What's the per-unit balance and payoff schedule, and is the seller paying it off at close or rolling it to the buyer?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.91% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.42%
• Cash-on-cash: -3.12%
• DSCR: 0.86
• GRM: 9.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $230,000
• List price: $199,000
• Delta: -13.48%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 9 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

8.68% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 19.2%
• Equity multiple: 2.47×
• Total profit: $81,703
• Equity at exit: $160,567

10-year hold

• IRR: 17.9%
• Equity multiple: 5.40×
• Total profit: $244,958
• Equity at exit: $328,112

Cash invested: $55,720 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 12751

• Home prices YoY: 2.2%
• Active inventory: 19
• Price-to-rent: 9.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,805 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,044
• Tax from tax record: −$194 /mo · $2,331/yr
• Insurance: −$83
• HOA: −$250
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$379
• Net cashflow: $-145

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,988

Max offer price $173,374

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-32	-5% $-89	+0% $-145	+5% $-201	+10% $-258
Rent	-10% $-288	-5% $-216	+0% $-145	+5% $-74	+10% $-2
Rate	-1.0pp $-45	-0.5pp $-94	base $-145	+0.5pp $-197	+1.0pp $-249

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $49,750
• Closing costs: $5,970
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 9 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
42 Krier Ln Kiamesha Lake, NY	2.0	1.5	1350	$1,650	$1.22	15d	1	0.07mi
52 Medallion Rd Kiamesha Lake, NY	3.0	1.5	1440	$1,950	$1.35	20d	1	0.56mi
52 Medallion Rd Unit 1 Kiamesha Lake, NY	3.0	1.5	1440	$1,950	$1.35	15d	1	0.56mi
60 Medallion Rd Kiamesha Lake, NY	3.0	2.0	1531	$2,800	$1.83	15d	1	0.58mi
41 Rock Ridge Ave Monticello, NY	2.0	1.5	1200	$1,800	$1.50	20d	1	1.03mi
3 Saddle Ln Unit 1 Monticello, NY	2.0	1.0	1200	$1,500	$1.25	15d	1	1.09mi
35 Starr Ave Monticello, NY	3.0	1.5	1350	$1,975	$1.46	45d	1	1.17mi
6 Greenwood Way Monticello, NY	2.0	1.0	977	$1,850	$1.89	15d	2	1.29mi
185 Rock Ridge Ave Monticello, NY	2.0	1.0	1300	$1,250	$0.96	45d	1	1.49mi

HOA detail condo

• Monthly dues: $250 · $3,000/yr
• Likely covers: waterpool
• Assessments: None detected in remarks — confirm with the listing agent.

Listing history 13 events

1. 2026-06-15
   statusdays on market $199,000 Pending 40 DOM
2. 2026-04-01
   listed $199,000 Active
3. 2026-01-01
   price $205,000
4. 2025-11-17
   price $230,000
5. 2025-09-23
   price $250,000
6. 2025-09-05
   price $269,900
7. 2025-08-15
   price $285,000
8. 2025-07-27
   listed $299,000 Active
9. 2020-05-01
   soldstatus $112,500
10. 2020-01-01
    historical
11. 2019-10-05
    listed $133,000 Active
12. 1992-08-10
    soldstatus $360,000
13. 1991-02-15
    soldstatus $1,300,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NY · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $2,331 · $194/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,847 · $237/mo
• Expected delta: +$516/yr (+$43/mo · 22.1%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 2/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥91°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 3/10 Moderate 6% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $21,656
• − Mortgage interest: −$11,147
• − Property taxes: −$2,331
• − Insurance: −$995
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,732
• − Management: −$1,732
• − HOA: −$3,000
• − Depreciation: −$5,789
• Taxable loss: −$5,071
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,217
• After-tax cash flow: $-524/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Monticello Central School District
• NCES district ID: 3619740
• Math proficiency: 29% ▼ -4.00%
• Reading proficiency: 30% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $44,696
• Composite: 25.28/100
• National rank: #7491
• State rank: #577 of 590 in NY

Livability — Kiamesha Lake

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• Census place: Kiamesha Lake, NY
• City population: 1,340
• Population (ZIP): 1,340

Population outlook (Sullivan County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 68,974 people
• By 2030: 65,609 · -4.9%
• By 2040: 58,878 · -14.6%
• By 2050: 52,500 · -23.9%
• By 2075: 39,941 · -42.1%
• By 2100: 28,880 · -58.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (75%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 75% Two or more races 13% Black 11% Hispanic / Latino 10%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Puerto Rican 8%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 9% Danish 9% Estonian 8%
• Foreign-born: 1%
• Languages at home: 51% English-only · German/W. Germanic 43% Spanish 6%

Political lean MEDSL · Sullivan

• 2024 margin: R (+16.7) · D 41.6% · R 58.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: -26.2pp toward R · 2008: 9.5pp · 2024: -16.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+16.7 2020: R+9.2 2016: R+13.7 2012: D+10.4 2008: D+9.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 8.68%
• Current HPI: 397.7278
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

-84.7% since first listed

12 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-01 Listed $199,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-01-01 Price Changed $205,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-11-17 Price Changed $230,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-09-23 Price Changed $250,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-09-05 Price Changed $269,900 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-08-15 Price Changed $285,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-07-27 Listed $299,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2020-05-01 Sold (Public Records) $112,500 Public Records
• 2020-01-01 Listing Removed — OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2019-10-05 Listed $133,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 1992-08-10 Sold (Public Records) $360,000 Public Records
• 1991-02-15 Sold (Public Records) $1,300,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+4.2%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,331 · +3.2% YoY. Source: county tax records.