8407 Bermuda Blue Rd · Cove, TX 77523

$217,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,335 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 29 Days on market

Built 2021 Good condition 6,011 sqft lot Est $235k · 8% under $32/mo HOA · 2% of rent ↓ 10% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +13.9/30.0
• ARV discount +10.9/15.0
• Schools +6.2/10.0
• 1% rule +4.3/10.0
• DSCR +4.2/10.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• Rent growth +3.4/5.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Single story 3-Bedroom, 2-Bath home with open concept from living room to kitchen and dining area. Large primary bedroom with en-suite bath and walk-in closet. The kitchen boasts granite countertops, breakfast bar, and all appliances. In the backyard you will find a spacious yard and open patio to relax or enjoy some outdoor entertaining.

Key facts

• Spacious yard
• Open patio
• Open concept

Tags

• OPEN CONCEPT
• GRANITE COUNTERTOPS
• BREAKFAST BAR
• SPACIOUS YARD
• OPEN PATIO

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: Joseph's Cove HOA — $380 annually

Exterior

• Parking: Attached garage with 2 spaces; Driveway
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer
• Home design: Residential property; Single-story (First floor living); Slab foundation; Composition roof
• Construction: Cement siding; Built in 2021
• Exterior features: Deck; Patio; Fenced backyard

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Electric cooktop; Electric oven; Electric range; Microwave; Wall oven; Garbage disposal; Refrigerator
• Bedrooms: Primary bedroom (First floor) — 15 x 11; Bedroom (First floor) — 11 x 9; Bedroom (First floor) — 10 x 10
• Flooring: Carpet; Tile
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms; Primary bathroom (First floor) — 11 x 8; Bathroom (First floor) — 8 x 7
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (Gas); Central air conditioning (Electric)
• Interior features: Breakfast bar; Granite counters; Tub with shower; Kitchen/dining combo
• Laundry & utility: Washer hookup; Electric dryer hookup; Utility room (First floor) — 7 x 6

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $217k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $23 ($280/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $201k (7.4% below list).
• Recommended offer: $201k (7.4% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.4% vs local median 5.3% in Cove — meaningfully above typical; check what's discounted (condition, days-on-market, listing class) to confirm the premium yield is real.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 64/100 on livability (#766 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+, crime A; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Barbers Hill ISD (rural): math 72% / reading 65% proficiency, ranked #12 of 826 in TX (top 2%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Barbers Hill El South (math 68% / reading 62%, grade B+, #246 of 4,322 statewide, top 6%, 883 students, 37% FRL); Barbers Hill Middle South (math 77% / reading 63%, grade A, #58 of 1,662 statewide, top 4%, 636 students, 0% FRL); Barbers Hill H S (math 70% / reading 74%, grade B+, #95 of 1,632 statewide, top 7%, 1,972 students, 0% FRL) — zoned schools average 12% FRL vs 28% district-wide (16 pts lower); this property's tenant base skews higher-income than the district average.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.4%/yr); 776 active listings in the ZIP; 10 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 20d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 629 units permitted in Chambers County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Chambers County population projected at +46% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 29 days — a 2% lower offer ($214k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 4 sale attempts since 3y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→26/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $200,926 (7.4% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.93% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.42%
• Cash-on-cash: 0.46%
• DSCR: 1.02
• GRM: 9.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $234,960
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
5943 Snapping Turtle Rd	0.16mi	3/2.0	1,335 (0%)	2mo	$225,000	$169	91
5831 Littoral Rd	0.07mi	3/2.0	1,335 (0%)	7mo	$233,900	$175	91
5739 Rainbow Rd	0.20mi	3/2.0	1,381 (+3%)	1mo	$215,000	$156	84
6022 Treasure Cove Rd	0.21mi	3/2.0	1,335 (0%)	9mo	$239,900	$180	82
6023 Treasure Cove Rd	0.18mi	3/2.0	1,335 (0%)	12mo	$235,000	$176	82
6011 Treasure Cove Rd	0.19mi	3/2.0	1,392 (+4%)	11mo	$257,000	$185	75
5523 Rainbow Rd	0.38mi	3/2.0	1,392 (+4%)	9mo	$243,900	$175	67
5838 Golden Cove Rd	0.32mi	3/2.5	1,404 (+5%)	10mo	$220,000	$157	66
5614 Rainbow Rd	0.30mi	3/2.5	1,404 (+5%)	12mo	$233,000	$166	65
5834 Golden Cove Rd	0.32mi	3/2.0	1,166 (-13%)	2mo	$215,000	$184	62
14503 Sweet Water Dr	0.47mi	3/2.0	1,516 (+14%)	3mo	$280,000	$185	53
6138 Hidden Cove Rd	0.41mi	3/2.0	1,166 (-13%)	12mo	$220,000	$189	50

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.42% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -15.0%
• Equity multiple: 0.46×
• Total profit: $-32,757
• Equity at exit: $32,355

10-year hold

• IRR: -5.7%
• Equity multiple: 0.62×
• Total profit: $-22,800
• Equity at exit: $18,762

Cash invested: $60,760 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77523

• Home prices YoY: -31.5%
• Rents YoY: 3.4%
• Active inventory: 776
• Price-to-rent: 9.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,009 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,138
• Tax from tax record: −$304 /mo · $3,643/yr
• Insurance: −$90
• HOA: −$32
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$422
• Net cashflow: $23

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,980

Max offer price $217,000

Occupancy floor 94%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $54,250
• Closing costs: $6,510
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 10 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
5815 Littoral Rd Baytown, TX	3.0	2.0	1305	$1,845	$1.41	19d	1	0.08mi
5006 Creekside Ave Baytown, TX	3.0	2.0	1553	$2,081	$1.34	24d	1	0.61mi
4814 Emerald Bay Cir Baytown, TX	4.0	2.0	1666	$2,191	$1.32	22d	1	0.77mi
14739 Sweet Water Dr Baytown, TX	4.0	2.0	1821	$2,395	$1.32	1d	1	0.82mi
8017 FM 3180 Rd Baytown, TX	2.0	2.0	1081	$1,450	$1.34	43d	1	0.84mi
55 Cotton Bayou Cir Cove, TX	3.0	2.0	952	$1,195	$1.26	2d	1	0.94mi
55 Cotton Bayou Cir Cove, TX	3.0	2.0	952	$1,195	$1.26	17d	1	0.94mi
21 Cotton Bayou Cir Cove, TX	3.0	2.0	1216	$1,195	$0.98	2d	1	1.00mi
21 Cotton Bayou Cir Cove, TX	3.0	2.0	1216	$1,195	$0.98	15d	1	1.00mi
14930 Spring Forest Ln Baytown, TX	4.0	2.0	1829	$2,750	$1.50	43d	1	1.07mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $32 · $384/yr

Listing history 22 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $217,000 Active 29 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $217,000 Active 28 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $217,000 Active 27 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $217,000 Active 26 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $217,000 Active 24 DOM
6. 2026-06-09
   days on market $217,000 Active 20 DOM
7. 2026-06-08
   days on market $217,000 Active 19 DOM
8. 2026-06-07
   days on market $217,000 Active 18 DOM
9. 2026-06-04
   days on market $217,000 Active 15 DOM
10. 2026-06-03
    days on market $217,000 Active 14 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    days on market $217,000 Active 13 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    days on market $217,000 Active 12 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $217,000 Active 11 DOM
14. 2026-05-20
    listed $217,000 Active
15. 2024-01-13
    historical $1,900
16. 2023-12-01
    price $1,900
17. 2023-11-29
    listed $2,000
18. 2023-10-12
    historical
19. 2023-09-15
    price $225,000
20. 2023-08-28
    listed $235,000 Active
21. 2023-08-23
    historical
22. 2023-08-04
    listed $240,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $3,643 · $304/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,971 · $331/mo
• Expected delta: +$328/yr (+$27/mo · 9.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 3/10 Moderate FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 20% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 10/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥111°F today · 26 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $24,111
• − Mortgage interest: −$12,155
• − Property taxes: −$3,643
• − Insurance: −$1,085
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,929
• − Management: −$1,929
• − HOA: −$384
• − Depreciation: −$6,313
• Taxable loss: −$3,327
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$799
• After-tax cash flow: $1,078/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Good 80/100 Cosmetic rehab

This single-story home is in good condition with modern updates and a good curb appeal. It's ready for a fresh coat of paint and carpet replacement to further enhance its value.

Value-add opportunities

• Both paint exterior — enhances curb appeal and value
• Both replace carpet — improves comfort and appearance

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Both paint exterior — enhances curb appeal and value ↑
• Both replace carpet — improves comfort and appearance ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Barbers Hill ISD
• NCES district ID: 4809450
• Math proficiency: 72% ▼ -5.00%
• Reading proficiency: 65% ▼ -1.00%
• Median HH income: $87,257
• Composite: 61.73/100
• National rank: #737
• State rank: #12 of 826 in TX

Livability — Cove

• Score: 64/100
• State rank: #766
• US rank: #13996

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living B+ Crime A Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Chambers County · 30,186 people
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 30,186
• Household income: $124,188
• Rent vs Own: 18.7% rent · 81.3% own
• Severe rent burden: 549.0

Population outlook (Chambers County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 46,946 people
• By 2030: 51,094 · +8.8%
• By 2040: 59,578 · +26.9%
• By 2050: 68,318 · +45.5%
• By 2075: 90,485 · +92.7%
• By 2100: 104,885 · +123.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Majority White (62%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 62% Hispanic / Latino 25% Two or more races 11% Black 8% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 22%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 1% Slovak 1% Serbian 1%
• Foreign-born: 9% · Canada
• Languages at home: 82% English-only · Spanish 17%

Political lean MEDSL · Chambers

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+65.6) · D 16.8% · R 82.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: -14.4pp toward R · 2008: -51.2pp · 2024: -65.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+65.6 2020: R+61.7 2016: R+62.1 2012: R+61.1 2008: R+51.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -102.33%
• Current HPI: 222.6999
• Rent YoY: ▲ 3.42%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-9.6% since first listed

9 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-20 Listed $217,000 HARMLS
• 2024-01-13 Rental Removed $1,900 APPFOLIO
• 2023-12-01 Price Changed $1,900 APPFOLIO
• 2023-11-29 Listed for Rent $2,000 APPFOLIO
• 2023-10-12 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2023-09-15 Price Changed $225,000 HARMLS
• 2023-08-28 Listed $235,000 HARMLS
• 2023-08-23 Listing Removed — NTREIS
• 2023-08-04 Listed $240,000 NTREIS

Property tax history

+59.1%/yr

Latest (2025): $3,643 · +1.7% YoY. Source: county tax records.