12817 Shining Blue Nile Ln · Ruskin, FL 34219

$463,500

6 bd · 3.0 ba · 3,326 sqft · SingleFamily · 72 Days on market

Built 2026 Good condition Est $456k · at est.

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +12.3/30.0
• ARV discount +6.7/15.0
• Schools +4.4/10.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• DSCR +3.7/10.0
• Livability +3.6/5.0
• 1% rule +3.5/10.0
• Rent growth +2.3/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

This two-story home is the largest plan available in the collection. The first floor is brightened by a contemporary open design that unifies the kitchen, family room and dining room. Off the foyer is a versatile bedroom and flex room, while the owner's suite is nested in the back for privacy. Upstairs are the remaining four bedrooms and an expansive loft.

Key facts

• 2 garage spots
• Built 2026
• Listed 71 days

Property features AI

Finance

• Financial info: List price $462,000

Exterior

• Parking: 2 parking spaces; 2-car garage
• Home design: Single-family home, Trenton plan; New construction (spec)
• Construction: Living area approximately 3326; Built as part of 2026 listings
• Exterior features: Address: 12817 Shining Blue Nile Ln, Parrish FL 34219

Interior

• Bedrooms: 6 bedrooms
• Bathrooms: 3 full bathrooms
• Interior features: Open living spaces (living area approx. 3326); Spec home (Trenton plan)

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 6-bed/3.0-bath single-family listed at $464k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-85 ($-1k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $451k (2.7% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $395k (14.8% below list).
• Recommended offer: $395k (14.8% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.1% vs local median 4.7% in Ruskin — meaningfully above typical; check what's discounted (condition, days-on-market, listing class) to confirm the premium yield is real.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 71/100 on livability (#392 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, commute B+; Watch: amenities F, health & safety F.
• Manatee (suburban): math 54% / reading 50% proficiency, ranked #26 of 73 in FL (top 36%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Virgil Mills Elementary School (math 69% / reading 65%, grade B+, #450 of 2,144 statewide, top 22%, 818 students, 43% FRL); Buffalo Creek Middle School (math 59% / reading 51%, grade B-, #180 of 571 statewide, top 32%, 1,127 students, 44% FRL); Palmetto High School (math 22% / reading 36%, grade F, #456 of 667 statewide, top 68%, 2,100 students, 61% FRL) — zoned schools at 50% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-0.9%/yr); 2194 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; high-income renter base; 7,472 units permitted in Manatee County in 2024 (1,782 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 42% of the median local income ($114k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $14k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Manatee County population projected at +43% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 72 days — a 6% lower offer ($436k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $394,716 (14.8% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 72 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 15% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.85% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.07%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.78%
• DSCR: 0.97
• GRM: 9.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $455,662
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
12946 Shining Blue Nile Ln	0.03mi	6/3.0	3,326 (0%)	10mo	$420,800	$127	90
12604 Aura Moonlight Ter	0.09mi	6/3.0	3,326 (0%)	13mo	$447,900	$135	85
12227 Radiant Gem Trl	0.18mi	6/3.0	3,326 (0%)	13mo	$449,900	$135	81
12223 Radiant Gem Trl	0.19mi	6/3.0	3,107 (-7%)	1mo	$395,000	$127	80
12226 Radiant Gem Trl	0.21mi	6/3.0	3,326 (0%)	14mo	$474,400	$143	79
12621 Aura Moonlight Ter	0.08mi	5/2.5 (-1)	2,896 (-13%)	11mo	$383,150	$132	59
11915 Blue Diamond Trl	0.52mi	5/4.0 (-1)	3,354 (+1%)	13mo	$470,000	$140	54
11857 Blue Diamond Trl	0.54mi	5/3.5 (-1)	3,255 (-2%)	13mo	$507,370	$156	54
11924 Blue Diamond Trl	0.52mi	5/4.0 (-1)	3,354 (+1%)	16mo	$460,000	$137	52
12222 Radiant Gem Trl	0.21mi	5/2.5 (-1)	2,896 (-13%)	13mo	$419,900	$145	51
13149 Shimmering Amethyst Ct	0.64mi	5/4.0 (-1)	3,354 (+1%)	16mo	$488,905	$146	46
13144 Shimmering Amethyst Ct	0.66mi	5/3.5 (-1)	3,255 (-2%)	16mo	$440,000	$135	45

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -21.0%
• Equity multiple: 0.29×
• Total profit: $-92,021
• Equity at exit: $69,109

10-year hold

• IRR: -23.4%
• Equity multiple: -0.01×
• Total profit: $-131,555
• Equity at exit: $40,075

Cash invested: $129,780 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 34219

• Home prices YoY: -23.7%
• Rents YoY: -0.9%
• Active inventory: 2194
• Price-to-rent: 9.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $3,947 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,431
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$579 /mo · $6,952/yr
• Insurance: −$193
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$829
• Net cashflow: $-85

Break-even live

Break-even rent $4,055

Max offer price $451,217

Occupancy floor 97%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $235	-5% $75	+0% $-85	+5% $-245	+10% $-405
Rent	-10% $-397	-5% $-241	+0% $-85	+5% $71	+10% $227
Rate	-1.0pp $149	-0.5pp $33	base $-85	+0.5pp $-205	+1.0pp $-327

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $115,875
• Closing costs: $13,905
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 2 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
12227 Radiant Gem Trl Parrish, FL	5.0	3.0	3326	$3,500	$1.05	5d	1	0.20mi
10832 Charlotte Dr Parrish, FL	5.0	3.0	2964	$2,899	$0.98	13d	1	1.11mi

Listing history 11 events

1. 2026-06-15
   days on market $463,500 Active 72 DOM
2. 2026-06-13
   days on market $463,500 Active 70 DOM
3. 2026-06-13
   days on market $463,500 Active 69 DOM
4. 2026-06-10
   days on market $463,500 Active 67 DOM
5. 2026-06-09
   days on market $463,500 Active 66 DOM
6. 2026-06-08
   pricedays on market $463,500 Active 65 DOM
7. 2026-06-08
   pricedays on market $463,000 Active 64 DOM
8. 2026-06-03
   days on market $462,000 Active 60 DOM
9. 2026-06-02
   pricedays on market $462,000 Active 59 DOM
10. 2026-06-01
    days on market $459,000 Active 58 DOM
11. 2026-05-31
    days on market $459,000 Active 57 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $47,366
• − Mortgage interest: −$25,963
• − Property taxes: −$6,952
• − Insurance: −$2,318
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$3,789
• − Management: −$3,789
• − Depreciation: −$13,484
• Taxable loss: −$8,929
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,143
• After-tax cash flow: $1,124/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Good 80/100 None rehab

This two-story home is in excellent condition with modern finishes and a well-maintained exterior. It offers a good return on investment with updates that can significantly increase its value.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Painting the exterior and interior walls — Fresh paint enhances curb appeal and interior aesthetics
• Both Updating the flooring in the kitchen and bathrooms — Modern flooring improves the overall look and feel of the home
• Both Upgrading the kitchen appliances — Modern appliances enhance functionality and appeal
• Both Adding smart home features — Smart home features improve convenience and energy efficiency

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Both Painting the exterior and interior walls — Fresh paint enhances curb appeal and interior aesthetics ↑
• Both Updating the flooring in the kitchen and bathrooms — Modern flooring improves the overall look and feel of the home ↑
• Both Upgrading the kitchen appliances — Modern appliances enhance functionality and appeal ↑
• Both Adding smart home features — Smart home features improve convenience and energy efficiency ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Manatee
• NCES district ID: 1201230
• Math proficiency: 54% ▼ -6.00%
• Reading proficiency: 50% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $49,607
• Composite: 44.43/100
• National rank: #2806
• State rank: #26 of 73 in FL

Livability — Ruskin

• Score: 71/100
• State rank: #392
• US rank: #6879

Category grades

Amenities F Commute B+ Cost of living A+ Crime B- Employment B- Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Manatee County · 416,364 people
• City population: 33,319
• Metro: North Port-Sarasota-Bradenton, FL
• Population (ZIP): 33,296
• Household income: $113,773
• Rent vs Own: 8.1% rent · 91.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 219.0

Population outlook (Manatee County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 447,342 people
• By 2030: 488,911 · +9.3%
• By 2040: 567,934 · +27.0%
• By 2050: 637,995 · +42.6%
• By 2075: 781,970 · +74.8%
• By 2100: 848,272 · +89.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (75%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 75% Hispanic / Latino 11% Two or more races 8% Black 8% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 2% Puerto Rican 3%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 4% Hispanic 2% Russian 2%
• Foreign-born: 10% · Canada, Dominican Republic, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 88% English-only · Spanish 7% French/Haitian/Cajun 2% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Manatee

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+23.5) · D 37.9% · R 61.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: -16.5pp toward R · 2008: -7.0pp · 2024: -23.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+23.5 2020: R+16.1 2016: R+17.1 2012: R+12.5 2008: R+7.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -84.45%
• Current HPI: 271.7131
• Rent YoY: ▼ -0.95%
• Metro: North Port-Sarasota-Bradenton, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B