4830 NW 16th Ln · Rainbow Park, FL 34482

$337,990

5 bd · 3.5 ba · 2,451 sqft · SingleFamily · 28 Days on market

Built 2026 Good condition 7,840 sqft lot $46/mo HOA · 2% of rent ↓ 3% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Rent growth +5.0/5.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• Schools +3.6/10.0
• Cash flow +3.3/30.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +0.0/10.0
• DSCR +0.0/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Under Construction. The first floor of this two-story home shares an open layout between the kitchen, dining area and family room for easy entertaining with access to the patio. A secondary bedroom on the first floor can easily be converted to a guest room or home office. Upstairs is a versatile loft that serves as an additional shared living space, along with three secondary bedrooms and a peaceful owner's suite comprised of an en-suite bathroom and a large walk-in closet.

Key facts

• Guest room
• Access to patio
• Open layout

Tags

• OPEN LAYOUT
• ACCESS TO PATIO
• VERSATILE LOFT
• GUEST ROOM
• HOME OFFICE
• EN-SUITE BATHROOM

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Property is in a PUD zoning; Lot approx. 0.18 acre
• HOA & community: HOA managed by Triad Management; HOA required; $555 annually ($46.25/month); Pets allowed

Exterior

• Parking: Attached 2-car garage
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; Public utilities
• Home design: Single family residence; One-story; New construction (projected completion July 24, 2026); North-facing
• Construction: Block construction; Shingle roof; Slab foundation; Built by Lennar Homes (Model: Eclipse); Under construction
• Exterior features: Paved road access

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Disposal
• Bedrooms: 5 bedrooms
• Flooring: Carpet
• Bathrooms: 3 full bathrooms; 1 half bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Heat pump; Central air
• Interior features: Walk-in closets; Sliding doors
• Laundry & utility: Dedicated laundry room

🏗️ New construction. The $337,990 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $510,354.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 5-bed/3.5-bath single-family listed at $338k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-2k ($-19k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $279k (17.4% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $250k (26.0% below list).
• Recommended offer: $250k (26.0% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 2.5% vs local median 5.7% in Rainbow Park — below-typical yield; the buyer is paying a premium for something (appreciation thesis, condition, location) that the cap rate doesn't capture.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade F — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Marion (rural): math 42% / reading 43% proficiency, ranked #61 of 73 in FL (top 84%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 61% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: College Park Elementary School (math 46% / reading 37%, grade F, #1,437 of 2,144 statewide, top 68%, 840 students, 78% FRL); Dunnellon Middle School (math 48% / reading 42%, grade D, #310 of 571 statewide, top 56%, 678 students, 68% FRL); West Port High School (math 34% / reading 52%, grade F, #255 of 667 statewide, top 39%, 2,906 students, 52% FRL) — zoned schools at 66% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+11.1%/yr); 670 active listings in the ZIP; 7,071 units permitted in Marion County in 2024 (534 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $2,501/mo this rent would consume 46% of the median local household income ($66k/yr) (locally 282% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $4k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $15k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Marion County population projected at +13% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 28 days — a 2% lower offer ($333k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $250,119 (26.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.49% ✗
• Cap rate: 2.54%
• Cash-on-cash: -13.41%
• DSCR: 0.40
• GRM: 17.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $510,354
• List price: $337,990
• Delta: -33.77%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 2 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 8.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -36.2%
• Equity multiple: -0.20×
• Total profit: $-171,129
• Equity at exit: $76,095

10-year hold

• IRR: -27.1%
• Equity multiple: -0.54×
• Total profit: $-219,560
• Equity at exit: $44,126

Cash invested: $142,899 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 34482

• Rents YoY: 11.1%
• Active inventory: 670
• Price-to-rent: 11.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,501 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,676
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$638 /mo · $7,655/yr
• Insurance: −$213
• HOA: −$46
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$525
• Net cashflow: $-1,597

Break-even live

Break-even rent $4,523

Max offer price $279,265

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-1,244	-5% $-1,421	+0% $-1,597	+5% $-1,773	+10% $-1,950
Rent	-10% $-1,795	-5% $-1,696	+0% $-1,597	+5% $-1,498	+10% $-1,399
Rate	-1.0pp $-1,340	-0.5pp $-1,467	base $-1,597	+0.5pp $-1,729	+1.0pp $-1,864

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $127,589
• Closing costs: $15,311
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $46 · $552/yr

Listing history 4 events

1. 2026-05-13
   price $337,990 478-char remark
2. 2026-05-12
   price $337,990 458-char remark
3. 2026-04-28
   listed $349,990 Active 458-char remark
4. 2026-04-28
   listed $349,990 Active 478-char remark

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $30,014
• − Mortgage interest: −$28,588
• − Property taxes: −$7,655
• − Insurance: −$2,552
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,401
• − Management: −$2,401
• − HOA: −$552
• − Depreciation: −$14,847
• Taxable loss: −$28,982
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$6,956
• After-tax cash flow: $-12,208/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 6 photos

Good 80/100 None rehab

This under-construction home is in good condition with a modern design and ample space. It is ready for immediate occupancy and can be enhanced with minor updates to boost its value.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Painting interior walls — Fresh paint can enhance the home's curb appeal and interior aesthetics.
• Both Landscaping improvements — Enhanced landscaping can increase both resale and rental value.
• Both Add smart home features — Smart home features can increase both resale and rental value by making the home more modern and convenient.

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Both Painting interior walls — Fresh paint can enhance the home's curb appeal and interior aesthetics. ↑
• Both Landscaping improvements — Enhanced landscaping can increase both resale and rental value. ↑
• Both Add smart home features — Smart home features can increase both resale and rental value by making the home more modern and convenient. ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Marion
• NCES district ID: 1201260
• Math proficiency: 42% ▼ -7.00%
• Reading proficiency: 43% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $40,015
• Composite: 35.61/100
• National rank: #4890
• State rank: #61 of 73 in FL

Livability — Rainbow Park

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• County: Marion County · 315,796 people
• Metro: Ocala, FL
• Population (ZIP): 22,807
• Household income: $65,901
• Rent vs Own: 16.7% rent · 83.3% own
• Severe rent burden: 282.0

Population outlook (Marion County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 365,905 people
• By 2030: 376,768 · +3.0%
• By 2040: 396,555 · +8.4%
• By 2050: 412,723 · +12.8%
• By 2075: 446,090 · +21.9%
• By 2100: 436,193 · +19.2%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Majority White (63%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 63% Hispanic / Latino 19% Black 14% Two or more races 12%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 6% Puerto Rican 9% Cuban 2%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 2% Romanian 2% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 10% · Canada
• Languages at home: 81% English-only · Spanish 16% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Marion

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+31.6) · D 33.8% · R 65.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: -20.0pp toward R · 2008: -11.6pp · 2024: -31.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+31.6 2020: R+25.9 2016: R+26.2 2012: R+16.2 2008: R+11.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -133.62%
• Current HPI: 194.3857
• Rent YoY: ▲ 11.12%
• Metro: Ocala, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

-3.4% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-26 Pending — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-05-13 Price Changed $337,990 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-04-28 Listed $349,990 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid