231 Eagleswood Ave · Forked River, NJ 08734

$779,000

4 bd · 3.0 ba · 2,526 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 7 Days on market

Built 2005 0.36 ac lot $308/sqft · at area comps Est $760k · at est.

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +20.5/30.0
• DSCR +6.5/10.0
• ARV discount +6.4/15.0
• 1% rule +5.4/10.0
• Livability +3.1/5.0
• Schools +3.0/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

IMMACULATE 4-bedroom, 2.5 bath residence in the highly sought-after Cedar Creek Estates of Lanoka Harbor! Step outside to the STUNNING backyard, featuring an in-ground pool with new liner, paver patio, and a shed. Inside, there is a dramatic two-story foyer with elegant tile flooring. The eat-in kitchen features granite countertops, a center island, tile backsplash, 42-inch cabinetry with crown molding, stainless steel appliances, plantation shutters, and sliders to the backyard. The inviting family room impresses with a soaring vaulted ceiling and a cozy fireplace, while the living and dining room combo showcases rich hardwood flooring. There's also a bonus room, first-floor laundry room,

Key facts

• Eat in kitchen
• Paver patio
• Granite countertops

Tags

• IN GROUND POOL
• PAVER PATIO
• TWO STORY FOYER
• EAT IN KITCHEN
• GRANITE COUNTERTOPS
• CENTER ISLAND

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Attached 2-car garage
• Utilities: Public sewer
• Home design: Located in Cedar Creek Est subdivision; Cedar Crest / Lacey area
• Construction: Unfinished basement
• Exterior features: Shingle roof

Interior

• Bedrooms: 4 bedrooms
• Flooring: Ceramic tile; Wood
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms; 1 half bathroom (2.5 bathrooms total)
• Heating & cooling: Forced air heating; 2-zone air conditioning
• Interior features: Ceiling fan(s); Wood-burning fireplace (1)

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/3.0-bath single-family listed at $779k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $1k ($12k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($8k rent vs $779k).
• Cap rate 7.9% vs local median 3.2% in Forked River — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 61/100 on livability (#464 in NJ) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: housing A+, crime A-, employment A-; Watch: amenities F, commute F, cost of living F.
• Lacey Township School District (suburban): math 22% / reading 43% proficiency, ranked #299 of 472 in NJ (top 63%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; only 19% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Zoned schools: Lanoka Harbor Elementary School (math 32% / reading 42%, grade F, #528 of 1,303 statewide, top 43%, 443 students, 27% FRL); Mill Pond Elementary School (math 18% / reading 39%, grade F, #332 of 431 statewide, top 77%, 680 students, 27% FRL); Lacey Township High School (math 25% / reading 49%, grade F, #217 of 399 statewide, top 57%, 1,222 students, 24% FRL).
• Market conditions: 57 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 4,434 units permitted in Ocean County in 2024 (868 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $5k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $23k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Ocean County population projected to shrink 8% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.

Negotiation context

• Only 7 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 75% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→15/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $779,000

Questions for the listing agent

1. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
2. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
3. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
4. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
5. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.04% ✓
• Cap rate: 7.87%
• Cash-on-cash: 5.63%
• DSCR: 1.25
• GRM: 8.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $759,797
• List price: $779,000
• Delta: 2.53%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
109 Foxhollow Dr	0.34mi	4/2.5	2,568 (+2%)	0mo	$579,000	$225	79
747 Hill St	0.16mi	4/3.0	2,307 (-9%)	7mo	$860,000	$373	72
26 Jacqueline Ct	0.57mi	4/2.5	2,594 (+3%)	4mo	$715,000	$276	64
689 Colgate Ave	0.54mi	4/2.5	2,579 (+2%)	8mo	$780,000	$302	63
424 Continental St	0.70mi	4/2.5	2,600 (+3%)	1mo	$760,000	$292	60
201 Pheasant Hollow Dr	0.36mi	4/2.5	2,254 (-11%)	7mo	$599,000	$266	57
3 Easy St	0.64mi	5/3.0 (+1)	2,608 (+3%)	3mo	$725,000	$278	57
80 Haines St	0.46mi	3/2.0 (-1)	2,328 (-8%)	7mo	$580,000	$249	50
551 Rosewood Dr	0.41mi	5/2.0 (+1)	2,233 (-12%)	6mo	$610,000	$273	47
551 Rosewood Dr Unit 551 R	0.41mi	5/2.0 (+1)	2,233 (-12%)	6mo	$610,000	$273	47
15 Jacqueline Ct	0.59mi	4/2.5	2,224 (-12%)	8mo	$630,000	$283	44
718 Amherst Rd	0.74mi	3/2.0 (-1)	2,300 (-9%)	1mo	$780,000	$339	41

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -7.6%
• Equity multiple: 0.72×
• Total profit: $-60,862
• Equity at exit: $116,151

10-year hold

• IRR: 2.0%
• Equity multiple: 1.14×
• Total profit: $31,556
• Equity at exit: $67,354

Cash invested: $218,120 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 21 Tenant-Leaning
• State New Jersey: 21 Tenant-Leaning · D+6
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Anti-eviction Act requires just-cause statewide; rent control in 100+ municipalities; one of the most tenant-friendly states.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 08734

• Active inventory: 57
• Price-to-rent: 8.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $8,139 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$4,085
• Tax from tax record: −$996 /mo · $11,955/yr
• Insurance: −$325
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$1,709
• Net cashflow: $1,024

Break-even live

Break-even rent $6,843

Max offer price $779,000

Occupancy floor 82%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $1,465	-5% $1,245	+0% $1,024	+5% $804	+10% $583
Rent	-10% $381	-5% $703	+0% $1,024	+5% $1,346	+10% $1,667
Rate	-1.0pp $1,417	-0.5pp $1,222	base $1,024	+0.5pp $822	+1.0pp $617

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $194,750
• Closing costs: $23,370
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 2 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
605 Farrelly Ave Bayville, NJ	5.0	3.0	2274	$3,500	$1.54	45d	1	1.07mi
406 Lawrence Dr Lanoka Harbor, NJ	3.0	2.0	1836	$16,000	$8.71	0d	1	1.46mi

Listing history 2 events

1. 2026-05-07
   status Pending 1049-char remark
2. 2026-04-30
   listed $779,000 Active 1049-char remark

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NJ · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $11,955 · $996/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $15,676 · $1,306/mo
• Expected delta: +$3,721/yr (+$310/mo · 31.1%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥99°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 75% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $97,674
• − Mortgage interest: −$43,636
• − Property taxes: −$11,955
• − Insurance: −$3,895
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$7,814
• − Management: −$7,814
• − Depreciation: −$22,662
• Taxable loss: −$102
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$24
• After-tax cash flow: $12,315/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Lacey Township School District
• NCES district ID: 3408100
• Math proficiency: 22% ▼ -18.00%
• Reading proficiency: 43% ▼ -11.00%
• Median HH income: $73,331
• Composite: 30.42/100
• National rank: #6242
• State rank: #299 of 472 in NJ

Livability — Forked River

• Score: 61/100
• State rank: #464
• US rank: #17753

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living F Crime A- Employment A- Housing A+ Health & safety D- User ratings A-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 8,028

Population outlook (Ocean County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 586,991 people
• By 2030: 581,403 · -1.0%
• By 2040: 564,913 · -3.8%
• By 2050: 538,149 · -8.3%
• By 2075: 468,845 · -20.1%
• By 2100: 350,297 · -40.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (93%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 93% Hispanic / Latino 5% Two or more races 3%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 7% Subsaharan African 3% Slovak 3%
• Foreign-born: 2% · Canada
• Languages at home: 98% English-only · Spanish 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Ocean

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+36.0) · D 31.4% · R 67.4% · Other 1.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -17.6pp toward R · 2008: -18.4pp · 2024: -36.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+36.0 2020: R+28.7 2016: R+34.0 2012: R+17.7 2008: R+18.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -225.83%
• Current HPI: 368.8557
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.05%
• F500 in state: 34

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NJ)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Consumer Goods	3	$31B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$153B
▸Technology	2	$21B
▸Insurance	2	$20B
▸Healthcare	2	$19B
▸Financial Services	1	$70B

Price history

+0.0% since first listed

5 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-11 Pending — MOMLS
• 2026-06-11 Listed $779,000 MOMLS
• 2026-06-04 Sold (MLS) — MOMLS
• 2026-05-07 Pending — MOMLS
• 2026-04-30 Listed $779,000 MOMLS

Property tax history

+3.5%/yr

Latest (2025): $11,955 · +7.9% YoY. Source: county tax records.