19792 Creekside Cir · Emerald Bay, TX 75701

$173,600

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 2,059 sqft · Land · 38 Days on market

Built 1999 9,801 sqft lot $50/mo HOA · 3% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +19.9/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• DSCR +6.3/10.0
• 1% rule +5.6/10.0
• Livability +3.6/5.0
• Rent growth +3.4/5.0
• Schools +3.3/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

This gem won't last long! Are you looking for a peaceful, private home surrounded by beautiful ETX trees with access to Lake Palestine? Upon Entering the front door to the spacious open concept and exceptional updates you can see this home has been remodeled with some amazing features to include custom butcher block countertops in the kitchen with an open concept into the spacious dining area and living area that includes a gorgeous wood burning fireplace and newly installed vinyl wood plank flooring throughout. With 4 bedrooms, 2 bathrooms, a spacious laundry room huge front yard, this home is ready for your family. The backyard is fenced with a well-built, new deck. New double carport and

Key facts

• Enclosed shop
• New deck
• New double carport

Tags

• FENCED BACKYARD
• NEW DECK
• NEW DOUBLE CARPORT
• ENCLOSED SHOP
• ACCESS TO LAKE PALESTINE
• PRIVATE BOAT RAMPS

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: Homeowners association with $50 association fee

Exterior

• Parking: Detached carport
• Security: Smoke detector(s)
• Utilities: Septic tank (aerobic septic)
• Home design: Manufactured home; Residential property
• Construction: Vinyl siding; Composition roof
• Exterior features: Deck; Porch; Chain link fence; Storage structure

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Oven; Electric water heater
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central air; Electric cooling; Ceiling fan(s)
• Interior features: Ceiling fans; Wood-burning fireplace; Smoke detector(s)

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath land listed at $174k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $210 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $174k).
• Recommended offer: $168k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 7.7% vs local median 2.9% in Emerald Bay — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 71/100 on livability (#293 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, housing A+, employment A; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety D-.
• Tyler ISD (urban): math 39% / reading 38% proficiency, ranked #449 of 826 in TX (top 54%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 66% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.7%/yr); 327 active listings in the ZIP; 595 units permitted in Smith County in 2024 (45 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 33% of the median local income ($66k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Smith County population projected at +24% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 38 days — a 3% lower offer ($168k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $18.19M (99%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 62% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→25/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $168,392 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 38 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.06% ✓
• Cap rate: 7.75%
• Cash-on-cash: 5.19%
• DSCR: 1.23
• GRM: 7.8

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.66% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -7.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.72×
• Total profit: $-13,451
• Equity at exit: $25,884

10-year hold

• IRR: 3.0%
• Equity multiple: 1.22×
• Total profit: $10,899
• Equity at exit: $15,010

Cash invested: $48,608 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 75701

• Rents YoY: 3.7%
• Active inventory: 327
• Price-to-rent: 7.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,848 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$910
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$217 /mo · $2,604/yr
• Insurance: −$72
• HOA: −$50
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$388
• Net cashflow: $210

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,582

Max offer price $173,600

Occupancy floor 84%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $43,400
• Closing costs: $5,208
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $50 · $600/yr

Listing history 16 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $173,600 Active 38 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $173,600 Active 37 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   status $173,600 Active 36 DOM
4. 2026-06-09
   status $173,600 Pending 36 DOM
5. 2026-06-08
   days on market $173,600 Active 36 DOM
6. 2026-06-07
   days on market $173,600 Active 35 DOM
7. 2026-06-05
   days on market $173,600 Active 32 DOM
8. 2026-06-02
   days on market $173,600 Active 30 DOM
9. 2026-06-01
   days on market $173,600 Active 29 DOM
10. 2026-05-31
    days on market $173,600 Active 28 DOM
11. 2026-05-30
    days on market $173,600 Active 27 DOM
12. 2026-05-19
    price $173,600 892-char remark
13. 2026-05-07
    price $183,600 892-char remark
14. 2026-05-03
    listed $18,360,000 Active 892-char remark
15. 2022-08-04
    soldstatus
16. 1987-06-23
    soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 2/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥109°F today · 25 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 62% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $22,175
• − Mortgage interest: −$9,724
• − Property taxes: −$2,604
• − Insurance: −$868
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,774
• − Management: −$1,774
• − HOA: −$600
• − Depreciation: −$5,050
• Taxable loss: −$219
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$53
• After-tax cash flow: $2,575/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Tyler ISD
• NCES district ID: 4843470
• Math proficiency: 39% ▼ -4.00%
• Reading proficiency: 38% ▼ -1.00%
• Median HH income: $44,090
• Composite: 32.69/100
• National rank: #5650
• State rank: #449 of 826 in TX

Livability — Emerald Bay

• Score: 71/100
• State rank: #293
• US rank: #6721

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living B+ Crime A+ Employment A Housing A+ Health & safety D- User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Smith County · 180,570 people
• Metro: Tyler, TX
• Population (ZIP): 36,344
• Household income: $66,401
• Rent vs Own: 40.0% rent · 60.0% own
• Severe rent burden: 1116.0

Population outlook (Smith County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 248,890 people
• By 2030: 261,665 · +5.1%
• By 2040: 286,114 · +15.0%
• By 2050: 308,006 · +23.8%
• By 2075: 354,171 · +42.3%
• By 2100: 372,828 · +49.8%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.64)
• Race & ethnicity: White 53% Black 21% Hispanic / Latino 19% Two or more races 8% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 17%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 2% Italian 1% Lithuanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 8% · Canada
• Languages at home: 84% English-only · Spanish 14% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Smith

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+45.1) · D 27.0% · R 72.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: -5.6pp toward R · 2008: -39.5pp · 2024: -45.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+45.1 2020: R+39.4 2016: R+43.9 2012: R+46.9 2008: R+39.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -299.78%
• Current HPI: 207.238
• Rent YoY: ▲ 3.66%
• Metro: Tyler, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-99.1% since first listed

7 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-17 Relisted — HCBOR
• 2026-06-08 Pending — HCBOR
• 2026-05-19 Price Changed $173,600 HCBOR
• 2026-05-07 Price Changed $183,600 HCBOR
• 2026-05-03 Listed $18,360,000 HCBOR
• 2022-08-04 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 1987-06-23 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

-4.2%/yr

Latest (2024): $15 · -2.2% YoY. Source: county tax records.