31232 Kyle Dr · Todd Mission, TX 77484

$240,000

4 bd · 2.5 ba · 2,376 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 23 Days on market

Built 1997 2.56 ac lot

---

Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +12.0/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• DSCR +3.6/10.0
• 1% rule +3.4/10.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• Appreciation +2.9/10.0
• Schools +2.9/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +1.6/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

Beautiful 1976 sq ft. Home on 2.56 Acres, Must See to Appreciate, Central Air, Central Heat, Large Open Living and Kitchen Area for Your Family to Enjoy, Extra Storage Areas within Home, Utility Room, Property Fenced and Cross Fenced for Horses, Very Low Tax Rate, Fireplace has circulating fan to heat home, Stocked Pond 17 feet deep with Bass, Channel Cat, and Sun Perch, New Fans on Front Porch, Washer, dryer, freezer, furniture and lots of other furnishing available, Seller downsizing.

Key facts

• Large kitchen
• Cozy fireplace
• Center island

Tags

• OVERSIZED LIVING ROOM
• COZY FIREPLACE
• LARGE KITCHEN
• CENTER ISLAND
• EXPANSIVE DINING ROOM
• SPLIT-PLAN LAYOUT

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Living area approximately 2,376
• Financial info:
• HOA & community:

Exterior

• Parking:
• Security:
• Utilities: Well water; Septic sewer
• Home design: Residential property; Single-story (entry level: First floor)
• Construction: Built in 1997; Vinyl siding; Wood siding; Metal roof
• Exterior features: Covered patio; Patio; Deck; Wooded lot

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Electric range / free-standing range; Oven; Kitchen island
• Bedrooms: Primary bedroom (First floor) — 18 x 12; Bedroom (First floor) — 10 x 13; Bedroom (First floor) — 11 x 10; Bedroom (First floor) — 10 x 12; Up to 4 bedrooms possible
• Flooring: Carpet; Laminate
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms; 1 half bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (electric); Central air (electric); Thermostat (energy-efficient)
• Interior features: Double vanity; Kitchen island; Primary bathroom with bath in primary bedroom; Soaking tub; Separate shower; Tub/shower combination; Ceiling fans; Living/dining room layout; Programmable thermostat; One fireplace; 10 total rooms
• Laundry & utility: Washer hookup; Electric dryer hookup; Utility room (First floor) — 8 x 7

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $240k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-56 ($-668/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $230k (4.1% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $201k (16.4% below list).
• Recommended offer: $201k (16.4% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.0% vs local median 2.9% in Todd Mission — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 67/100 on livability (#549 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Waller ISD (rural): math 30% / reading 35% proficiency, ranked #532 of 826 in TX (top 64%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Fields Store El (math 47% / reading 43%, grade D-, #1,133 of 4,322 statewide, top 27%, 663 students, 63% FRL); Waller H S (math 25% / reading 40%, grade F, #1,029 of 1,632 statewide, top 64%, 2,639 students, 62% FRL) — zoned schools at 62% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: Rents falling (-3.8%/yr); 1183 active listings in the ZIP; solid renter incomes; 483 units permitted in Waller County in 2024 (89 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Waller County population projected at +62% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 23 days — a 2% lower offer ($236k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts since 16y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $76k; list at $240k implies a 215% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 98% chance of damaging wind over 30y; major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $200,529 (16.4% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.84% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.01%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.99%
• DSCR: 0.96
• GRM: 10.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $624,888
• Comps found: 4

Show comp detail 4 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
29231 N Reids Prairie Rd	0.59mi	4/3.0	2,379 (+0%)	13mo	$589,000	$248	59
26600 Carriage Ct	0.59mi	3/2.0 (-1)	2,288 (-4%)	2mo	$674,900	$295	58
26036 Spanish Oak Dr	0.21mi	4/2.0	2,185 (-8%)	20mo	$575,000	$263	58
27777 E Stallion Ln	0.73mi	3/2.5 (-1)	2,330 (-2%)	22mo	$550,000	$236	40

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -21.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.28×
• Total profit: $-48,292
• Equity at exit: $35,785

10-year hold

• IRR: -23.9%
• Equity multiple: -0.03×
• Total profit: $-69,250
• Equity at exit: $20,751

Cash invested: $67,200 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77484

• Home prices YoY: -1.0%
• Rents YoY: -3.8%
• Active inventory: 1183
• Price-to-rent: 10.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,005 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,259
• Tax from tax record: −$281 /mo · $3,375/yr
• Insurance: −$100
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$421
• Net cashflow: $-56

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,076

Max offer price $230,171

Occupancy floor 98%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $60,000
• Closing costs: $7,200
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 20 events

1. 2026-06-16
   days on market $240,000 Pending 23 DOM
2. 2026-06-15
   days on market $240,000 Pending 22 DOM
3. 2026-06-13
   days on market $240,000 Pending 20 DOM
4. 2026-06-10
   status $240,000 Pending 16 DOM
5. 2026-06-09
   days on market $240,000 Active 16 DOM
6. 2026-06-08
   days on market $240,000 Active 15 DOM
7. 2026-06-07
   days on market $240,000 Active 14 DOM
8. 2026-06-04
   days on market $240,000 Active 11 DOM
9. 2026-06-03
   days on market $240,000 Active 10 DOM
10. 2026-06-02
    days on market $240,000 Active 9 DOM
11. 2026-06-01
    days on market $240,000 Active 8 DOM
12. 2026-05-31
    days on market $240,000 Active 7 DOM
13. 2026-05-24
    listed $240,000 Active
14. 2011-03-25
    soldstatus 491-char remark

    Show marketing remark (491 chars)

    Beautiful 1976 sq ft. Home on 2.56 Acres, Must See to Appreciate, Central Air, Central Heat, Large Open Living and Kitchen Area for Your Family to Enjoy, Extra Storage Areas within Home, Utility Room, Property Fenced and Cross Fenced for Horses, Very Low Tax Rate, Fireplace has circulating fan to heat home, Stocked Pond 17 feet deep with Bass, Channel Cat, and Sun Perch, New Fans on Front Porch, Washer, dryer, freezer, furniture and lots of other furnishing available, Seller downsizing.

15. 2011-03-24
    soldstatus
16. 2011-02-12
    historical 491-char remark

    Show marketing remark (491 chars)

    Beautiful 1976 sq ft. Home on 2.56 Acres, Must See to Appreciate, Central Air, Central Heat, Large Open Living and Kitchen Area for Your Family to Enjoy, Extra Storage Areas within Home, Utility Room, Property Fenced and Cross Fenced for Horses, Very Low Tax Rate, Fireplace has circulating fan to heat home, Stocked Pond 17 feet deep with Bass, Channel Cat, and Sun Perch, New Fans on Front Porch, Washer, dryer, freezer, furniture and lots of other furnishing available, Seller downsizing.

17. 2011-01-01
    historical
18. 2010-12-31
    listed $109,000 491-char remark

    Show marketing remark (491 chars)

    Beautiful 1976 sq ft. Home on 2.56 Acres, Must See to Appreciate, Central Air, Central Heat, Large Open Living and Kitchen Area for Your Family to Enjoy, Extra Storage Areas within Home, Utility Room, Property Fenced and Cross Fenced for Horses, Very Low Tax Rate, Fireplace has circulating fan to heat home, Stocked Pond 17 feet deep with Bass, Channel Cat, and Sun Perch, New Fans on Front Porch, Washer, dryer, freezer, furniture and lots of other furnishing available, Seller downsizing.

19. 2010-09-30
    listed $109,000
20. 2001-06-01
    soldstatus $76,300

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $3,375 · $281/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $4,392 · $366/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,017/yr (+$85/mo · 30.1%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 6/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥111°F today · 23 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 98% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $24,063
• − Mortgage interest: −$13,444
• − Property taxes: −$3,375
• − Insurance: −$1,200
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,925
• − Management: −$1,925
• − Depreciation: −$6,982
• Taxable loss: −$4,787
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,149
• After-tax cash flow: $481/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Waller ISD
• NCES district ID: 4844430
• Math proficiency: 30% ▼ -23.00%
• Reading proficiency: 35% ▼ -11.00%
• Median HH income: $58,911
• Composite: 29.12/100
• National rank: #6593
• State rank: #532 of 826 in TX

Livability — Todd Mission

• Score: 67/100
• State rank: #549
• US rank: #10627

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Harris County · 4,702,590 people
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 14,348
• Household income: $81,250
• Rent vs Own: 26.4% rent · 73.6% own
• Severe rent burden: 270.0

Population outlook (Waller County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 60,772 people
• By 2030: 67,616 · +11.3%
• By 2040: 82,283 · +35.4%
• By 2050: 98,276 · +61.7%
• By 2075: 142,860 · +135.1%
• By 2100: 175,596 · +188.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.66)
• Race & ethnicity: White 47% Hispanic / Latino 31% Two or more races 16% Black 15%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 30%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 2% Serbian 2% Iranian 1%
• Foreign-born: 13% · Canada
• Languages at home: 73% English-only · Spanish 24% Arabic 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Waller

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+25.0) · D 37.0% · R 62.0% · Other 1.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -17.9pp toward R · 2008: -7.2pp · 2024: -25.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+25.0 2020: R+26.7 2016: R+28.6 2012: R+17.6 2008: R+7.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -4.17%
• Current HPI: 397.85
• Rent YoY: ▼ -3.77%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+214.5% since first listed

8 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-24 Listed $240,000 HARMLS
• 2011-03-25 Sold (MLS) — HARMLS
• 2011-03-24 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2011-02-12 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2011-01-01 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2010-12-31 Listed $109,000 HARMLS
• 2010-09-30 Listed $109,000 HARMLS
• 2001-06-01 Sold (Public Records) $76,300 Public Records

Property tax history

+5.4%/yr

Latest (2025): $3,375 · +11.2% YoY. Source: county tax records.