13 Otis St · Livermore Falls, ME 04254

$52,500

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 2,100 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 61 Days on market

Built 1910 6,534 sqft lot ↓ 25% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the B+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Appreciation +6.9/10.0
• Schools +6.5/10.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks

4 bed 2 bath home in mature neighborhood that needs your TLC- attached 2 car garage- short sale subject to lien holder approval cash only.

Key facts

• 6,534 sq ft lot
• 2 garage spots
• Built 1910

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $52k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $535 ($6k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $52k).
• Recommended offer: $49k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 18.5% vs local median 3.7% in Livermore Falls — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 67/100 on livability (#95 in ME) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, employment F.
• RSU 73 (rural): math 75% / reading 81% proficiency, ranked #91 of 112 in ME (top 81%) — strong family-tenant draw, lease renewals of 3-5y typical.
• Zoned schools: Spruce Mountain Middle School (math 83% / reading 83%, grade A+, #47 of 85 statewide, top 58%, 358 students, 58% FRL); Spruce Mountain High School (math 84% / reading 95%, grade A+, #49 of 108 statewide, top 50%, 408 students, 43% FRL) — zoned schools at 51% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: 35 active listings in the ZIP; 358 units permitted in Androscoggin County in 2024 (57 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $2k of equity ($363 loan paydown + $2k appreciation (3.9% local appreciation)).
• Androscoggin County population projected at -19% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (3.9% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $15k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 61 days — a 6% lower offer ($49k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: property tax is 4.8% of price; built in 1910 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $49,350 (6.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 61 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1910 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 2.51% ✓
• Cap rate: 18.51%
• Cash-on-cash: 43.64%
• DSCR: 2.94
• GRM: 3.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $239,400
• Comps found: 10

Show comp detail 10 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
9 Otis St	0.02mi	3/2.0 (-1)	2,214 (+5%)	23mo	$159,900	$72	65
28 Searles St	0.21mi	4/2.0	1,800 (-14%)	2mo	$245,000	$136	65
29 Jewell St	0.27mi	4/2.5	2,368 (+13%)	1mo	$350,000	$148	63
7 High St	0.47mi	3/2.0 (-1)	2,086 (-1%)	20mo	$162,500	$78	56
20 Church St	0.17mi	4/1.0	1,804 (-14%)	18mo	$65,000	$36	50
5 Pine Ave	0.55mi	4/1.5	1,972 (-6%)	18mo	$225,000	$114	47
52 Jewell St	0.31mi	4/1.0	2,412 (+15%)	14mo	$255,000	$106	45
7 Maple St	0.38mi	3/1.5 (-1)	1,904 (-9%)	20mo	$200,000	$105	43
23 Belleview Dr	0.63mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,960 (-7%)	19mo	$290,000	$148	38
24 Spring St	0.49mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,786 (-15%)	22mo	$280,000	$157	29

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

3.85% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 50.2%
• Equity multiple: 3.92×
• Total profit: $42,866
• Equity at exit: $26,146

10-year hold

• IRR: 49.1%
• Equity multiple: 7.95×
• Total profit: $102,191
• Equity at exit: $42,392

Cash invested: $14,700 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 41 Moderately Tenant-Leaning
• State Maine: 41 Moderately Tenant-Leaning · D+2
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Portland has rent control referendum (2020); strong habitability; security deposit caps.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 04254

• Home prices YoY: 1.2%
• Active inventory: 35
• Price-to-rent: 3.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,316 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$275
• Tax from tax record: −$208 /mo · $2,494/yr
• Insurance: −$22
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$276
• Net cashflow: $535

Break-even live

Break-even rent $639

Max offer price $52,500

Occupancy floor 54%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $713	-5% $695	+0% $535	+5% $520	+10% $505
Rent	-10% $431	-5% $483	+0% $535	+5% $587	+10% $639
Rate	-1.0pp $561	-0.5pp $548	base $535	+0.5pp $521	+1.0pp $507

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $13,125
• Closing costs: $1,575
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 5 events

1. 2026-03-09
   status Pending
2. 2026-03-03
   price $52,500
3. 2026-02-09
   price $55,000
4. 2026-01-19
   price $60,000
5. 2026-01-07
   listed $70,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast ME · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $2,494 · $208/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,494 · $208/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 8 d/yr ≥91°F today · 18 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 4/10 Moderate 11% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $15,791
• − Mortgage interest: −$2,941
• − Property taxes: −$2,494
• − Insurance: −$262
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,263
• − Management: −$1,263
• − Depreciation: −$1,527
• Taxable income: $6,040
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,450
• After-tax cash flow: $4,965/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: RSU 73
• NCES district ID: 2314805
• Math proficiency: 75% ▲ 50.00%
• Reading proficiency: 81% ▲ 38.00%
• Median HH income: $44,547
• Composite: 65.46/100
• National rank: #477
• State rank: #91 of 112 in ME

Livability — Livermore Falls

• Score: 67/100
• State rank: #95
• US rank: #10818

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B+ Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings B

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Livermore Falls, ME
• Population (ZIP): 3,076

Population outlook (Androscoggin County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 103,965 people
• By 2030: 101,004 · -2.8%
• By 2040: 93,218 · -10.3%
• By 2050: 84,222 · -19.0%
• By 2075: 63,391 · -39.0%
• By 2100: 43,273 · -58.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (97%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 97% Two or more races 2%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 18% German 2% Scotch-Irish 1%
• Foreign-born: 1% · Canada
• Languages at home: 96% English-only · French/Haitian/Cajun 3% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Androscoggin

• 2024 margin: Lean R (+6.1) · D 45.9% · R 52.0% · Other 2.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: -21.3pp toward R · 2008: 15.2pp · 2024: -6.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+6.1 2020: R+2.8 2016: R+9.4 2012: D+12.8 2008: D+15.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 3.85%
• Current HPI: 330.6379
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: —
• F500 in state: 0

Price history

-25.0% since first listed

5 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-09 Pending — MREIS
• 2026-03-03 Price Changed $52,500 MREIS
• 2026-02-09 Price Changed $55,000 MREIS
• 2026-01-19 Price Changed $60,000 MREIS
• 2026-01-07 Listed $70,000 MREIS

Property tax history

+2.4%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,494 · +5.9% YoY. Source: county tax records.