6310 Dalebrook Dr · Meadowbrook, VA 23234

$279,900

3 bd · 1.5 ba · 2,006 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 164 Days on market

Built 1960 0.52 ac lot Est $351k · 20% under

---

Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Cash flow +13.3/30.0
• Schools +5.2/10.0
• DSCR +4.0/10.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• 1% rule +3.1/10.0
• Rent growth +3.0/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Nice Price Adjustment to $279,900 !!! It's never too late to own Real Estate. With some handy work and updating, you can turn this Ranch-style into a fantastic home for your family. Your Living Room is right at the entrance where you will greet and entertain your guests. The Eat-In Kitchen will be the center of your family universe. The adjoining Dining Room is loaded with Built-In Cabinets. Off the Kitchen is a large Family Room with a Masonry Fireplace and Wood Stove. A Laundry Room completes the area. Then. .. there's more. .. a huge Bonus Room with it's own side entrance could be used for an office or Day Care. The sleeping area includes 3 bedrooms and a full tub bath. The Primary Bedro

Key facts

• Wood stove
• Masonry fireplace
• Ranch-style

Tags

• RANCH-STYLE
• EAT-IN KITCHEN
• BUILT-IN CABINETS
• MASONRY FIREPLACE
• WOOD STOVE
• BONUS ROOM

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.5-bath single-family listed at $280k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-1 ($-15/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $280k (0.1% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $228k (18.6% below list).
• Recommended offer: $228k (18.6% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.3% vs local median 3.9% in Meadowbrook — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 73/100 on livability (#161 in VA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: housing A+, health & safety A+, cost of living A-; Watch: amenities F, commute F.
• Chesterfield County Public School District (suburban): math 52% / reading 64% proficiency, ranked #57 of 131 in VA (top 44%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Hopkins Road Elementary (math 32% / reading 47%, grade F, #900 of 1,108 statewide, top 83%, 773 students, 81% FRL); Falling Creek Middle (math 28% / reading 46%, grade F, #319 of 342 statewide, top 93%, 1,419 students, 80% FRL); Meadowbrook High (math 22% / reading 65%, grade F, #314 of 319 statewide, top 98%, 2,033 students, 79% FRL) — zoned schools average 80% FRL vs 26% district-wide (54 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 40% at this address vs 58% district-wide (-18 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the Chesterfield County Public School District average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.9%/yr); 234 active listings in the ZIP; 5 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 19d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 2,307 units permitted in Chesterfield County in 2024 (462 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 41% of the median local income ($67k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Chesterfield County population projected at +20% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 164 days — a 12% lower offer ($246k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $20k (7%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $88k; list at $280k implies a 218% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 27% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→16/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $227,964 (18.6% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 164 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 19% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Built in 1960 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.81% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.29%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.02%
• DSCR: 1.00
• GRM: 10.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $351,050
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
3737 Frankmont Rd	0.27mi	4/2.0 (+1)	2,102 (+5%)	1mo	$365,000	$174	71
6437 Moon Ln	0.25mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,938 (-3%)	8mo	$340,000	$175	69
6013 Daleshire Dr	0.13mi	3/2.0	1,725 (-14%)	3mo	$330,000	$191	66
5937 Dunnshire Rd	0.35mi	3/2.0	1,852 (-8%)	5mo	$315,000	$170	65
4007 Lawnwood Dr	0.29mi	3/2.0	1,725 (-14%)	6mo	$360,000	$209	56
6412 Lythgoe Ave	0.49mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,938 (-3%)	11mo	$310,000	$160	56
6925 Conifer Road Rd	0.69mi	4/2.0 (+1)	2,028 (+1%)	6mo	$368,800	$182	54
4021 Cogbill Rd	0.51mi	3/2.5	2,177 (+8%)	7mo	$430,000	$198	52
6312 Philbrook Rd	0.41mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,788 (-11%)	8mo	$292,000	$163	49
3801 Applewood Rd	0.51mi	4/2.0 (+1)	2,208 (+10%)	10mo	$400,000	$181	44
3609 Cogbill Rd	0.64mi	4/2.0 (+1)	2,225 (+11%)	6mo	$367,500	$165	40
4424 Watchrun Dr	0.72mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,788 (-11%)	7mo	$285,000	$159	36

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 1.93% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -17.5%
• Equity multiple: 0.39×
• Total profit: $-47,909
• Equity at exit: $41,734

10-year hold

• IRR: -11.6%
• Equity multiple: 0.34×
• Total profit: $-51,760
• Equity at exit: $24,201

Cash invested: $78,372 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning
• State Virginia: 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning · D+2
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

VRLTA gives some tenant protections; Northern Virginia courts slower; rural VA landlord-leaning.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 23234

• Rents YoY: 1.9%
• Active inventory: 234
• Price-to-rent: 10.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,280 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,468
• Tax from tax record: −$218 /mo · $2,612/yr
• Insurance: −$117
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$479
• Net cashflow: $-1

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,281

Max offer price $279,685

Occupancy floor 95%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $157	-5% $78	+0% $-1	+5% $-80	+10% $-160
Rent	-10% $-181	-5% $-91	+0% $-1	+5% $89	+10% $179
Rate	-1.0pp $140	-0.5pp $70	base $-1	+0.5pp $-74	+1.0pp $-148

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $69,975
• Closing costs: $8,397
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 5 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
3907 Harvette Dr North Chesterfield, VA	4.0	2.5	1700	$2,600	$1.53	19d	1	0.80mi
4502 Cinderwood Dr North Chesterfield, VA	3.0	2.0	1540	$2,200	$1.43	19d	1	1.10mi
5314 Whetstone Rd Richmond, VA	1.0–4.0	1.0–2.5	1029	$1,833	$1.78	0d	1	1.14mi
3814 Falstone Rd Unit N Richmond, VA	3.0	1.5	1776	$2,295	$1.29	46d	1	1.23mi
3754 Sterling Woods Ln North Chesterfield, VA	3.0	2.5	2293	$2,800	$1.22	25d	1	1.37mi

Listing history 6 events

1. 2026-04-22
   status Pending
2. 2026-02-19
   price $279,900
3. 2026-01-07
   status Active
4. 2025-12-16
   status Pending
5. 2025-10-17
   listed $299,900 Active
6. 1995-11-17
   soldstatus $87,950

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast VA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,612 · $218/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,612 · $218/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥106°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 27% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $27,356
• − Mortgage interest: −$15,679
• − Property taxes: −$2,612
• − Insurance: −$1,400
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,188
• − Management: −$2,188
• − Depreciation: −$8,143
• Taxable loss: −$4,854
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,165
• After-tax cash flow: $1,150/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Chesterfield County Public School District
• NCES district ID: 5100840
• Math proficiency: 52% ▼ -30.00%
• Reading proficiency: 64% ▼ -15.00%
• Median HH income: $72,821
• Composite: 51.56/100
• National rank: #1712
• State rank: #57 of 131 in VA

Livability — Meadowbrook

• Score: 73/100
• State rank: #161
• US rank: #5004

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A- Crime C+ Employment C+ Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Meadowbrook, VA
• County: Chesterfield County · 406,988 people
• City population: 46,284
• Metro: Richmond, VA
• Population (ZIP): 47,465
• Household income: $66,619
• Rent vs Own: 40.8% rent · 59.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 2031.0

Population outlook (Chesterfield County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 377,190 people
• By 2030: 395,710 · +4.9%
• By 2040: 427,694 · +13.4%
• By 2050: 452,706 · +20.0%
• By 2075: 505,533 · +34.0%
• By 2100: 521,282 · +38.2%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.67)
• Race & ethnicity: Black 46% Hispanic / Latino 30% White 18% Two or more races 9% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 5% Puerto Rican 3%
• Common ancestry: Italian 1%
• Foreign-born: 20% · Canada
• Languages at home: 69% English-only · Spanish 26% Other Indo-European 1% Tagalog/Filipino 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Chesterfield

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+9.0) · D 53.8% · R 44.8% · Other 1.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: +16.4pp toward D · 2008: -7.5pp · 2024: 9.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+9.0 2020: D+6.7 2016: R+2.2 2012: R+7.1 2008: R+7.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -205.50%
• Current HPI: 317.6006
• Rent YoY: ▲ 1.93%
• Metro: Richmond, VA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.40%
• F500 in state: 50

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in VA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Aerospace / Defense	4	$236B
▸Technology / Defense	3	$32B
▸Financial Services	2	$176B
▸Utilities	2	$27B
▸Insurance	2	$25B
▸Technology	2	$15B

Price history

+218.2% since first listed

6 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-22 Pending — CVRMLS
• 2026-02-19 Price Changed $279,900 CVRMLS
• 2026-01-07 Relisted — CVRMLS
• 2025-12-16 Pending — CVRMLS
• 2025-10-17 Listed $299,900 CVRMLS
• 1995-11-17 Sold (Public Records) $87,950 Public Records

Property tax history

+78.8%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,612 · +8.3% YoY. Source: county tax records.