2 Forest Dr · Wurtsboro, NY 12790

$239,000

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,000 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 2 Days on market

Built 1974 0.45 ac lot Est $298k · 20% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Cash flow +11.3/30.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• 1% rule +3.8/10.0
• Livability +3.5/5.0
• DSCR +3.3/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.5/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

This is a well maintained ranch style home, located at the dead end of a less traveled road in the Village of Wurtsboro. The home has three beds, one bath, an updated eat-in kitchen, and living room with a woodstove. Outside on the level lot, is small patio, storage shed and many mature trees and flowering shrubs. Additional Information: Amenities:Storage,

Key facts

• Wood stove
• Village of wurtsboro
• Laundry closet

Tags

• CUL-DE-SAC
• WOOD STOVE
• STAINLESS STEEL APPLIANCES
• LAUNDRY CLOSET
• VILLAGE OF WURTSBORO

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Driveway; No carport
• Utilities: Septic tank; Electricity connected
• Home design: Single family residence; Living area reported from public records (approx. 1000)
• Construction: Frame construction
• Exterior features: Frame construction; Not waterfront

Interior

• Kitchen: Electric range; Refrigerator
• Bedrooms: Bedroom on the first floor
• Bathrooms: One full bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Electric heat; No cooling system
• Interior features: First-floor bedroom; First-floor full bathroom; No basement; No attic; Five total rooms
• Laundry & utility: Electric service connected

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $239k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-88 ($-1k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $223k (6.5% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $211k (11.8% below list).
• Recommended offer: $211k (11.8% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 70/100 on livability (#453 in NY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, housing A+, employment A; Watch: amenities F, commute F.
• Monticello Central School District (town): math 29% / reading 30% proficiency, ranked #577 of 590 in NY (top 98%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Zoned schools: Emma C Chase School (math 32% / reading 47%, grade F, #1,444 of 2,108 statewide, top 71%, 228 students, 57% FRL); Robert J Kaiser Middle School (math 7% / reading 35%, grade F, #661 of 729 statewide, top 91%, 595 students, 66% FRL); Monticello High School (math 82% / reading 34%, grade C, #879 of 1,100 statewide, top 80%, 844 students, 63% FRL).
• Market conditions: 109 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 739 units permitted in Sullivan County in 2024 (5 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $26k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $24k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Sullivan County population projected at -24% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$41k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• Only 2 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 4 sale attempts since 19y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $92k; list at $239k implies a 160% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major flood risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $210,752 (11.8% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. Built in 1974 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.88% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.85%
• Cash-on-cash: -1.59%
• DSCR: 0.93
• GRM: 9.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $298,000
• Comps found: 3

Show comp detail 3 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
8 Wilsey Valley Rd	0.14mi	3/1.0	1,008 (+1%)	7mo	$299,999	$298	86
51 Riina Rd	0.21mi	3/1.0	1,025 (+2%)	11mo	$330,000	$322	77
44 David Ln	0.09mi	2/1.0 (-1)	864 (-14%)	22mo	$185,000	$214	50

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 23.2%
• Equity multiple: 2.86×
• Total profit: $124,628
• Equity at exit: $215,310

10-year hold

• IRR: 20.7%
• Equity multiple: 6.55×
• Total profit: $371,626
• Equity at exit: $464,324

Cash invested: $66,920 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 12790

• Home prices YoY: 26.8%
• Active inventory: 109
• Price-to-rent: 9.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,108 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,253
• Tax from tax record: −$400 /mo · $4,805/yr
• Insurance: −$100
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$443
• Net cashflow: $-88

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,219

Max offer price $223,380

Occupancy floor 99%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $59,750
• Closing costs: $7,170
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 2 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
127 Pine St Unit 4 Wurtsboro, NY	2.0	1.5	1200	$2,525	$2.10	14d	1	0.25mi
135 Sullivan St Unit Downstairs Wurtsboro, NY	2.0	1.0	700	$1,500	$2.14	14d	1	0.31mi

Listing history 3 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $239,000 Active 2 DOM
2. 2026-06-16
   remarks 693-char remark
3. 2026-06-16
   listed $239,000 Active 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NY · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $4,805 · $400/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $4,805 · $400/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 6/10 Major FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 73% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 4/10 Moderate 8 d/yr ≥97°F today · 17 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 3/10 Moderate 7% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $25,290
• − Mortgage interest: −$13,388
• − Property taxes: −$4,805
• − Insurance: −$1,195
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,023
• − Management: −$2,023
• − Depreciation: −$6,953
• Taxable loss: −$5,097
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,223
• After-tax cash flow: $162/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Monticello Central School District
• NCES district ID: 3619740
• Math proficiency: 29% ▼ -4.00%
• Reading proficiency: 30% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $44,696
• Composite: 25.28/100
• National rank: #7491
• State rank: #577 of 590 in NY

Livability — Wurtsboro

• Score: 70/100
• State rank: #453
• US rank: #7914

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living B Crime A+ Employment A Housing A+ Health & safety A User ratings D+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Wurtsboro, NY
• Population (ZIP): 4,341

Population outlook (Sullivan County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 68,974 people
• By 2030: 65,609 · -4.9%
• By 2040: 58,878 · -14.6%
• By 2050: 52,500 · -23.9%
• By 2075: 39,941 · -42.1%
• By 2100: 28,880 · -58.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (79%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 79% Two or more races 9% Black 6% Hispanic / Latino 6% Asian 4%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Puerto Rican 3%
• Common ancestry: Russian 7% Slovak 5% Scotch-Irish 4%
• Foreign-born: 8% · Canada
• Languages at home: 87% English-only · Spanish 3% Chinese 3% Russian/Polish/Slavic 3%

Political lean MEDSL · Sullivan

• 2024 margin: R (+16.7) · D 41.6% · R 58.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: -26.2pp toward R · 2008: 9.5pp · 2024: -16.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+16.7 2020: R+9.2 2016: R+13.7 2012: D+10.4 2008: D+9.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 95.79%
• Current HPI: 452.7233
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

+64.8% since first listed

11 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-11 Listed $239,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2014-10-02 Sold (Public Records) $92,000 Public Records
• 2014-10-02 Sold (Public Records) $92,000 Public Records
• 2014-09-26 Sold (MLS) $92,000 HGMLS
• 2014-09-26 Sold (MLS) $92,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2014-08-25 Delisted — HGMLS
• 2014-07-08 Listed $99,900 HGMLS
• 2014-07-08 Listed $99,900 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2008-03-07 Sold (MLS) $147,340 HGMLS
• 2008-01-14 Delisted — HGMLS
• 2007-08-14 Listed $145,000 HGMLS

Property tax history

+2.5%/yr

Latest (2025): $4,805 · +1.6% YoY. Source: county tax records.