1052 Noyac Path · Water Mill, NY 11976

$7,850,000

5 bd · 4.0 ba · 3,528 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 5 Days on market

Built 2007

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Appreciation +9.3/10.0
• Cash flow +7.9/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Rent growth +5.0/5.0
• Schools +4.8/10.0
• Livability +3.6/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +2.4/10.0
• DSCR +2.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Secreted within a hidden, private Hamptons enclave, minutes from three of the most coveted East End villages, discover "SkyBox, " a once-in-a-lifetime opportunity to live in a secluded, published work of modern art, an artist compound like no other. This award-winning Water Mill creation, by the world-renowned team at 1100 Architect, is a hillside sculpture floating effortlessly on close to 10 acres of the highest elevation anywhere in eastern Long Island, affording 360-degree views of lush farmland, the polo fields and the Atlantic Ocean. The home has 4 bedroom suites over three levels of carefully considered details and views from every window. The property also includes a sculp

Key facts

• Garage
• Pool
• Built 2007

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Garage
• Home design: Single-family home; 3 total floors
• Exterior features: Private pool

Interior

• Bedrooms: 4 bedrooms
• Bathrooms: 4.5 bathrooms
• Interior features: Central air conditioning; Dishwasher

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 5-bed/4.0-bath single-family listed at $7.85M.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-8k ($-101k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $6.64M (15.5% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $5.81M (26.0% below list).
• Recommended offer: $5.81M (26.0% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 5.0% vs local median 10.6% in Water Mill — below-typical yield; the buyer is paying a premium for something (appreciation thesis, condition, location) that the cap rate doesn't capture.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 71/100 on livability (#410 in NY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, commute A-; Watch: amenities F, cost of living F, housing F.
• Southampton Union Free School District (suburban): math 53% / reading 51% proficiency, ranked #293 of 590 in NY (top 50%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Southampton Elementary School (math 42% / reading 57%, grade D, #1,085 of 2,108 statewide, top 56%, 376 students, 51% FRL); Southampton Intermediate School (math 30% / reading 47%, grade F, #437 of 729 statewide, top 60%, 363 students, 44% FRL); Southampton High School (math 98%, 595 students, 48% FRL) — zoned schools average 48% FRL vs 30% district-wide (17 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+30.1%/yr); 52 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; high-income renter base; 1,366 units permitted in Suffolk County in 2024 (216 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $58,057/mo this rent would consume 387% of the median local household income ($180k/yr) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $732k of equity ($54k loan paydown + $677k appreciation (8.6% local appreciation)).
• Suffolk County population projected to shrink 5% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$1.17M cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• Only 5 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.

Recommended offer $5,805,656 (26.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.74% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.01%
• Cash-on-cash: -4.58%
• DSCR: 0.80
• GRM: 11.3

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

8.63% appreciation · 8.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 19.6%
• Equity multiple: 2.51×
• Total profit: $3,327,130
• Equity at exit: $6,303,987

10-year hold

• IRR: 19.5%
• Equity multiple: 5.94×
• Total profit: $10,850,899
• Equity at exit: $12,852,473

Cash invested: $2,198,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 11976

• Home prices YoY: 1.6%
• Rents YoY: 30.1%
• Active inventory: 52
• Price-to-rent: 11.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $58,057 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$41,166
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$9,812 /mo · $117,750/yr
• Insurance: −$3,271
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$12,192
• Net cashflow: $-8,385

Break-even live

Break-even rent $68,670

Max offer price $6,636,691

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-2,960	-5% $-5,672	+0% $-8,385	+5% $-11,097	+10% $-13,810
Rent	-10% $-12,971	-5% $-10,678	+0% $-8,385	+5% $-6,092	+10% $-3,798
Rate	-1.0pp $-4,432	-0.5pp $-6,388	base $-8,385	+0.5pp $-10,419	+1.0pp $-12,488

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $1,962,500
• Closing costs: $235,500
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
126 Middle Line Hwy Southampton, NY	4.0	4.5	3000	$80,000	$26.67	24d	1	1.40mi

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $696,679
• − Mortgage interest: −$439,722
• − Property taxes: −$117,750
• − Insurance: −$39,250
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$55,734
• − Management: −$55,734
• − Depreciation: −$228,364
• Taxable loss: −$239,876
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$57,570
• After-tax cash flow: $-43,049/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Southampton Union Free School District
• NCES district ID: 3627540
• Math proficiency: 53% ▬ 0.00%
• Reading proficiency: 51% ▲ 4.00%
• Median HH income: $85,977
• Composite: 47.9/100
• National rank: #2213
• State rank: #293 of 590 in NY

Livability — Water Mill

• Score: 71/100
• State rank: #410
• US rank: #7088

Category grades

Amenities F Commute A- Cost of living F Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing F Health & safety B+ User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Water Mill, NY
• County: Suffolk County · 679,920 people
• City population: 2,952
• Metro: New York-Newark-Jersey City, NY-NJ-PA
• Population (ZIP): 2,952
• Household income: $180,250
• Rent vs Own: 6.8% rent · 93.2% own

Population outlook (Suffolk County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,505,262 people
• By 2030: 1,498,318 · -0.5%
• By 2040: 1,471,101 · -2.3%
• By 2050: 1,424,848 · -5.3%
• By 2075: 1,337,157 · -11.2%
• By 2100: 1,217,720 · -19.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (87%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 87% Hispanic / Latino 9% Two or more races 9% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 1% Salvadoran 2%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 16% Scotch-Irish 7% Italian 3%
• Foreign-born: 11% · Canada, China
• Languages at home: 86% English-only · Spanish 7% Other Indo-European 4% German/W. Germanic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Suffolk

• 2024 margin: Lean R (+10.0) · D 45.0% · R 55.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -16.0pp toward R · 2008: 6.0pp · 2024: -10.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+10.0 2020: R+0.0 2016: R+8.2 2012: D+2.9 2008: D+6.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 8.63%
• Current HPI: 540.0967
• Rent YoY: ▲ 30.05%
• Metro: New York-Newark-Jersey City, NY-NJ-PA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B