304 Rocky Shore Ln · Oakland, ME 04963

$365,000

3 bd · 1.5 ba · 1,960 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 3 Days on market

Built 1990 1.91 ac lot Est $400k · 9% under $30/mo HOA · 2% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +11.4/15.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• Schools +7.5/10.0
• Cash flow +5.0/30.0
• Livability +3.8/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +0.1/10.0
• DSCR +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Plenty of space in this lovely cape style home. On 1.9 private acres one row back from the lake. Enjoy the cry of the loons on those summer nights. There is an attached 2 car garage with Generator hook up. The home is easy to heat with a newer propane boiler and a pellet stove. The back yard is spacious and well landscaped.

Key facts

• 1.91 acre lot
• 2 garage spots
• Built 1990

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Property is on approximately 1.91 acres; Road surface: gravel/dirt
• HOA & community: Part of Rocky Shore Lane Association; Association fee $360 annually; No pet restrictions

Exterior

• Parking: Attached 2-car garage with automatic door opener and direct entry to the home; Paved on-site parking with 5–10 spaces
• Utilities: Private water; Private sewer; Circuit breaker electric; On-demand water heater; Utilities currently on
• Home design: Single family residence; Built in 1990; Private road frontage; Rural zoning
• Construction: Wood frame with vinyl siding; Shingle roof; 1990 construction
• Exterior features: Deck; Patio; Near turnpike/interstate; Near town; Level lot; Water view of Messalonskee Lake

Interior

• Kitchen: Electric range; Dishwasher; Refrigerator
• Bedrooms: Primary bedroom (Second level); Bedroom 2 (First level); Bedroom 3 (Second level); Bedroom 4 (Second level)
• Flooring: Laminate; Vinyl
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom; 1 half bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Baseboard hot water heating
• Interior features: First-floor bedroom; Bathtub; Full unfinished basement with bulkhead, interior entry and sump pump; 6 total rooms
• Laundry & utility: Washer; Dryer

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.5-bath single-family listed at $365k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-865 ($-10k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $212k (41.9% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $187k (48.8% below list).
• Recommended offer: $187k (48.8% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 3.4% vs local median 2.1% in Oakland — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 75/100 on livability (#37 in ME, #3,871 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: employment D+, amenities F, commute F.
• RSU 18 (rural): math 88% / reading 89% proficiency, ranked #36 of 112 in ME (top 32%) — strong family-tenant draw, lease renewals of 3-5y typical.
• Zoned schools: Williams Elementary School (math 92% / reading 93%, grade A+, #24 of 294 statewide, top 8%, 227 students, 38% FRL); Messalonskee Middle School (math 86% / reading 88%, grade A+, #28 of 85 statewide, top 37%, 452 students, 32% FRL); Messalonskee High School (math 92% / reading 92%, grade A+, #27 of 108 statewide, top 36%, 725 students, 25% FRL) — zoned schools at 32% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: 72 active listings in the ZIP; 460 units permitted in Kennebec County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $39k of equity ($3k loan paydown + $36k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Kennebec County population projected at -17% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$63k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• Only 3 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 5 sale attempts since 9y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $297k; 23% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.

Recommended offer $186,716 (48.8% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.51% ✗
• Cap rate: 3.45%
• Cash-on-cash: -10.16%
• DSCR: 0.55
• GRM: 16.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $399,840
• Comps found: 8

Show comp detail 8 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
372 Belgrade Rd	0.32mi	3/2.0	1,837 (-6%)	13mo	$385,000	$210	62
54 Sunny Shore Pl	0.28mi	3/2.0	2,136 (+9%)	14mo	$850,000	$398	58
77 Town Farm Rd	0.64mi	3/2.5	1,932 (-1%)	10mo	$350,000	$181	55
95 Rocky Shore Ln	0.18mi	3/2.5	2,211 (+13%)	24mo	$760,000	$344	46
61 Town Farm Rd	0.63mi	3/2.0	2,128 (+9%)	10mo	$365,000	$172	46
493 Belgrade Rd	0.49mi	3/2.0	1,716 (-12%)	21mo	$350,000	$204	37
379 Snow Pond Rd	0.66mi	4/2.0 (+1)	2,206 (+13%)	6mo	$300,000	$136	36
264 Belgrade Rd	0.72mi	3/2.0	1,677 (-14%)	13mo	$310,000	$185	30

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 17.1%
• Equity multiple: 2.41×
• Total profit: $143,594
• Equity at exit: $328,821

10-year hold

• IRR: 16.2%
• Equity multiple: 5.56×
• Total profit: $466,033
• Equity at exit: $709,115

Cash invested: $102,200 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 41 Moderately Tenant-Leaning
• State Maine: 41 Moderately Tenant-Leaning · D+2
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Portland has rent control referendum (2020); strong habitability; security deposit caps.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 04963

• Home prices YoY: 25.1%
• Active inventory: 72
• Price-to-rent: 16.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,867 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,914
• Tax from tax record: −$244 /mo · $2,930/yr
• Insurance: −$152
• HOA: −$30
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$392
• Net cashflow: $-865

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,962

Max offer price $212,142

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-659	-5% $-762	+0% $-865	+5% $-969	+10% $-1,072
Rent	-10% $-1,013	-5% $-939	+0% $-865	+5% $-792	+10% $-718
Rate	-1.0pp $-681	-0.5pp $-772	base $-865	+0.5pp $-960	+1.0pp $-1,056

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $91,250
• Closing costs: $10,950
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $30 · $360/yr

Listing history 13 events

1. 2026-05-26
   listed $365,000 Active
2. 2024-02-15
   soldstatus $297,000 Closed 325-char remark

   Show marketing remark (325 chars)

   Plenty of space in this lovely cape style home. On 1.9 private acres one row back from the lake. Enjoy the cry of the loons on those summer nights. There is an attached 2 car garage with Generator hook up. The home is easy to heat with a newer propane boiler and a pellet stove. The back yard is spacious and well landscaped.

3. 2024-01-19
   status Pending 325-char remark

   Show marketing remark (325 chars)

   Plenty of space in this lovely cape style home. On 1.9 private acres one row back from the lake. Enjoy the cry of the loons on those summer nights. There is an attached 2 car garage with Generator hook up. The home is easy to heat with a newer propane boiler and a pellet stove. The back yard is spacious and well landscaped.

4. 2024-01-09
   status Active 325-char remark

   Show marketing remark (325 chars)

   Plenty of space in this lovely cape style home. On 1.9 private acres one row back from the lake. Enjoy the cry of the loons on those summer nights. There is an attached 2 car garage with Generator hook up. The home is easy to heat with a newer propane boiler and a pellet stove. The back yard is spacious and well landscaped.

5. 2023-12-07
   status Pending 325-char remark

   Show marketing remark (325 chars)

   Plenty of space in this lovely cape style home. On 1.9 private acres one row back from the lake. Enjoy the cry of the loons on those summer nights. There is an attached 2 car garage with Generator hook up. The home is easy to heat with a newer propane boiler and a pellet stove. The back yard is spacious and well landscaped.

6. 2023-12-04
   status Pending 325-char remark

   Show marketing remark (325 chars)

   Plenty of space in this lovely cape style home. On 1.9 private acres one row back from the lake. Enjoy the cry of the loons on those summer nights. There is an attached 2 car garage with Generator hook up. The home is easy to heat with a newer propane boiler and a pellet stove. The back yard is spacious and well landscaped.

7. 2023-11-28
   listed $295,000 Active 325-char remark

   Show marketing remark (325 chars)

   Plenty of space in this lovely cape style home. On 1.9 private acres one row back from the lake. Enjoy the cry of the loons on those summer nights. There is an attached 2 car garage with Generator hook up. The home is easy to heat with a newer propane boiler and a pellet stove. The back yard is spacious and well landscaped.

8. 2021-03-29
   soldstatus $232,500 Closed 194-char remark

   Show marketing remark (194 chars)

   Very nice 4 bedroom cape on 1.9 acres. one row back from the lake where you can hear the loons cry at night. 2 car garage , well landscaped, newer Propane boiler. Easy to heat with pellet stove.

9. 2021-02-22
   status Pending 194-char remark

   Show marketing remark (194 chars)

   Very nice 4 bedroom cape on 1.9 acres. one row back from the lake where you can hear the loons cry at night. 2 car garage , well landscaped, newer Propane boiler. Easy to heat with pellet stove.

10. 2021-02-22
    listed $227,000 Active 194-char remark

    Show marketing remark (194 chars)

    Very nice 4 bedroom cape on 1.9 acres. one row back from the lake where you can hear the loons cry at night. 2 car garage , well landscaped, newer Propane boiler. Easy to heat with pellet stove.

11. 2017-06-22
    soldstatus $145,000 Sold
12. 2017-05-15
    status Pending
13. 2017-05-11
    listed $142,500 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast ME · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $2,930 · $244/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,947 · $329/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,017/yr (+$85/mo · 34.7%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥91°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 4/10 Moderate 12% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $22,406
• − Mortgage interest: −$20,446
• − Property taxes: −$2,930
• − Insurance: −$1,825
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,792
• − Management: −$1,792
• − HOA: −$360
• − Depreciation: −$10,618
• Taxable loss: −$17,358
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$4,166
• After-tax cash flow: $-6,218/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: RSU 18
• NCES district ID: 2314779
• Math proficiency: 88% ▲ 53.00%
• Reading proficiency: 89% ▲ 32.00%
• Median HH income: $55,125
• Composite: 75.2/100
• National rank: #139
• State rank: #36 of 112 in ME

Livability — Oakland

• Score: 75/100
• State rank: #37
• US rank: #3871

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment D+ Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 7,375

Population outlook (Kennebec County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 115,421 people
• By 2030: 111,852 · -3.1%
• By 2040: 103,757 · -10.1%
• By 2050: 95,710 · -17.1%
• By 2075: 78,172 · -32.3%
• By 2100: 59,500 · -48.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (94%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 94% Two or more races 5% Asian 1%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 14% Slovak 4% Romanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 2% · Canada
• Languages at home: 96% English-only · French/Haitian/Cajun 3% Spanish 1% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Kennebec

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 47.5% · R 50.2% · Other 2.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: -17.5pp toward R · 2008: 14.8pp · 2024: -2.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+2.8 2020: D+0.2 2016: R+3.7 2012: D+13.5 2008: D+14.8

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 76.94%
• Current HPI: 383.7687
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: —
• F500 in state: 0

Price history

+156.1% since first listed

13 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-26 Listed $365,000 MREIS
• 2024-02-15 Sold (MLS) $297,000 MREIS
• 2024-01-19 Pending — MREIS
• 2024-01-09 Relisted — MREIS
• 2023-12-07 Pending — MREIS
• 2023-12-04 Pending — MREIS
• 2023-11-28 Listed $295,000 MREIS
• 2021-03-29 Sold (MLS) $232,500 MREIS
• 2021-02-22 Pending — MREIS
• 2021-02-22 Listed $227,000 MREIS
• 2017-06-22 Sold (MLS) $145,000 MREIS
• 2017-05-15 Pending — MREIS
• 2017-05-11 Listed $142,500 MREIS

Property tax history

+3.2%/yr

Latest (2024): $2,930 · +14.3% YoY. Source: county tax records.