282 Michael St · Londonderry, PA 17022

$52,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 938 sqft · Manufactured public records · 164 Days on market

Built 1996 $55/sqft · 31% below area Est $75k · 31% under $650/mo HOA · 39% of rent ↓ 5% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the B+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Schools +4.6/10.0
• Rent growth +4.1/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Discover the charm of Cedar Manor MHP, where comfort meets community in this inviting 2-bedroom, 1-bathroom manufactured home. Built in 1996, this well-maintained single-wide home offers 938 sq. ft. of cozy living space, perfect for those seeking a peaceful retreat. The home features a practical layout with ample room for relaxation and entertaining, complemented by a lovely patio for outdoor enjoyment. Cedar Manor MHP is more than just a place to live; it's a vibrant community that fosters connections. Residents benefit from a well-managed association that includes essential services such as water, sewer, trash, and road maintenance, ensuring a hassle-free lifestyle. The neighborhood is known for its friendly atmosphere, making it easy to meet neighbors and create lasting friendships. Enjoy leisurely strolls or picnics in nearby green spaces, or take advantage of the community's organized events that bring everyone together. With off-street parking for two vehicles and a convenient shed for extra storage, this home is designed for practicality. Experience the perfect blend of comfort, community, and convenience in Cedar Manor MHP-your new home awaits!

Key facts

• Convenient shed
• Green spaces
• Lovely patio

Tags

• LOVELY PATIO
• WELL-MANAGED ASSOCIATION
• GREEN SPACES
• OFF-STREET PARKING
• CONVENIENT SHED

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $52k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $229 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $52k).
• Recommended offer: $46k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade B — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Lower Dauphin SD (suburban): math 45% / reading 59% proficiency, ranked #130 of 539 in PA (top 24%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease; only 18% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+6.5%/yr); 202 active listings in the ZIP; solid renter incomes; 540 units permitted in Dauphin County in 2024 (194 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $360 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 6.5% rent growth), your $15k cash investment doubles in ~5 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 164 days — a 12% lower offer ($46k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $66/mo; HOA is 39% of rent.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe flood risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→15/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $45,760 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 164 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 3.18% ✓
• Cap rate: 13.12%
• Cash-on-cash: 24.37%
• DSCR: 2.08
• GRM: 2.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $75,027
• List price: $52,000
• Delta: -30.69%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 13 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 6.52% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 19.5%
• Equity multiple: 1.87×
• Total profit: $12,707
• Equity at exit: $7,753

10-year hold

• IRR: 32.4%
• Equity multiple: 5.02×
• Total profit: $58,525
• Equity at exit: $4,496

Cash invested: $14,560 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 62 Landlord-Friendly
• State Pennsylvania: 62 Landlord-Friendly · EVEN
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

10-day notice; Philadelphia has eviction-court diversion + some protections; otherwise moderate.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 17022

• Home prices YoY: -29.0%
• Rents YoY: 6.5%
• Active inventory: 202
• Price-to-rent: 2.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,654 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$273
• Tax from tax record: −$67 /mo · $803/yr
• Insurance: −$22
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$66 /mo · $798/yr
• HOA: −$650
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$347
• Net cashflow: $229

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,364

Max offer price $52,000

Occupancy floor 81%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $13,000
• Closing costs: $1,560
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $650 · $7,800/yr
• Likely covers: watersewertrash

Listing history 18 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $52,000 Active 164 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $52,000 Active 163 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $52,000 Active 162 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $52,000 Active 161 DOM
5. 2026-06-14
   days on market $52,000 Active 159 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $52,000 Active 158 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   days on market $52,000 Active 156 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $52,000 Active 155 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $52,000 Active 154 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $52,000 Active 153 DOM
11. 2026-06-05
    days on market $52,000 Active 150 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $52,000 Active 149 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $52,000 Active 148 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $52,000 Active 147 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $52,000 Active 146 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $52,000 Active 145 DOM
17. 2026-04-08
    price $52,000 1170-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1170 chars)

    Discover the charm of Cedar Manor MHP, where comfort meets community in this inviting 2-bedroom, 1-bathroom manufactured home. Built in 1996, this well-maintained single-wide home offers 938 sq. ft. of cozy living space, perfect for those seeking a peaceful retreat. The home features a practical layout with ample room for relaxation and entertaining, complemented by a lovely patio for outdoor enjoyment. Cedar Manor MHP is more than just a place to live; it's a vibrant community that fosters connections. Residents benefit from a well-managed association that includes essential services such as water, sewer, trash, and road maintenance, ensuring a hassle-free lifestyle. The neighborhood is known for its friendly atmosphere, making it easy to meet neighbors and create lasting friendships. Enjoy leisurely strolls or picnics in nearby green spaces, or take advantage of the community's organized events that bring everyone together. With off-street parking for two vehicles and a convenient shed for extra storage, this home is designed for practicality. Experience the perfect blend of comfort, community, and convenience in Cedar Manor MHP-your new home awaits!

18. 2026-01-05
    listed $55,000 Active 1170-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1170 chars)

    Discover the charm of Cedar Manor MHP, where comfort meets community in this inviting 2-bedroom, 1-bathroom manufactured home. Built in 1996, this well-maintained single-wide home offers 938 sq. ft. of cozy living space, perfect for those seeking a peaceful retreat. The home features a practical layout with ample room for relaxation and entertaining, complemented by a lovely patio for outdoor enjoyment. Cedar Manor MHP is more than just a place to live; it's a vibrant community that fosters connections. Residents benefit from a well-managed association that includes essential services such as water, sewer, trash, and road maintenance, ensuring a hassle-free lifestyle. The neighborhood is known for its friendly atmosphere, making it easy to meet neighbors and create lasting friendships. Enjoy leisurely strolls or picnics in nearby green spaces, or take advantage of the community's organized events that bring everyone together. With off-street parking for two vehicles and a convenient shed for extra storage, this home is designed for practicality. Experience the perfect blend of comfort, community, and convenience in Cedar Manor MHP-your new home awaits!

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast PA · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $803 · $67/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $812 · $68/mo
• Expected delta: +$9/yr (+$1/mo · 1.1%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 8/10 Severe FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 99% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥100°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 4/10 Moderate 10% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 4/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 6 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $19,853
• − Mortgage interest: −$2,913
• − Property taxes: −$803
• − Insurance: −$1,058
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,588
• − Management: −$1,588
• − HOA: −$7,800
• − Depreciation: −$1,513
• Taxable income: $2,590
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$622
• After-tax cash flow: $2,129/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Lower Dauphin SD
• NCES district ID: 4214100
• Math proficiency: 45% ▼ -10.00%
• Reading proficiency: 59% ▼ -13.00%
• Median HH income: $67,760
• Composite: 46.09/100
• National rank: #2513
• State rank: #130 of 539 in PA

Livability — Londonderry

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• County: Lancaster County · 390,309 people
• Metro: Lancaster, PA
• Population (ZIP): 31,908
• Household income: $86,767
• Rent vs Own: 31.8% rent · 68.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 1404.0

Population outlook (Dauphin County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 281,628 people
• By 2030: 283,549 · +0.7%
• By 2040: 285,385 · +1.3%
• By 2050: 286,188 · +1.6%
• By 2075: 291,053 · +3.3%
• By 2100: 282,374 · +0.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (89%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 89% Hispanic / Latino 6% Two or more races 4% Black 1% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 1% Puerto Rican 2%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 4% Lithuanian 2% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 3% · Canada
• Languages at home: 96% English-only · Spanish 2% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Dauphin

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+5.9) · D 52.4% · R 46.5% · Other 1.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: -3.1pp toward R · 2008: 9.1pp · 2024: 5.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+5.9 2020: D+8.5 2016: D+2.8 2012: D+6.0 2008: D+9.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -108.73%
• Current HPI: 266.3184
• Rent YoY: ▲ 6.52%
• Metro: Lancaster, PA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.68%
• F500 in state: 34

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in PA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	2	$309B
▸Insurance	2	$27B
▸Telecommunications / Media	1	$124B
▸Industrial Distribution	1	$22B
▸Financial Services	1	$20B
▸Chemicals / Materials	1	$18B

Price history

-5.5% since first listed

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-08 Price Changed $52,000 BRIGHT MLS
• 2026-01-05 Listed $55,000 BRIGHT MLS

Property tax history

+1.4%/yr

Latest (2026): $803 · +5.2% YoY. Source: county tax records.