🌊 Lakefront
17094 Us Highway 23 · Duffield, VA
Flood risk No data
- FEMA flood zone
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- Chance of flooding over 30 yrs
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- Est. flood insurance / yr
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Fire risk No data
- Est. fire insurance / yr
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Heat risk No data
- Hot days now (above threshold)
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- Hot days in 30 yrs
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Wind risk No data
- Chance of severe wind over 30 yrs
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Air-quality risk No data
- Unhealthy air days now
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- Unhealthy air days in 30 yrs
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Risk factors via First Street. Map © Google.
Why this score? — see what drove the B grade
The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).
- Cash flow +24.5/30.0
- ARV discount +15.0/15.0
- DSCR +7.9/10.0
- Schools +6.4/10.0
- Appreciation +6.2/10.0
- 1% rule +5.2/10.0
- Livability +3.4/5.0
- Rent growth +2.5/5.0
- Condition / age +2.2/5.0
$155,000
🖨 Deal sheet (PDF) 📄 Offer letter ✓ Due diligence
Listing remarks MLS
Take a look at this 3 bedrooms, 2 baths, and nice computer room located close to Natural Tunnel Park and Clinch River. Enjoy the view of Stock Creek from the covered back deck/porch. The front porch has been converted to sunroom (unheated). Lots of storage for the unfinished basement and also an outbuilding (10' x 16') attached to a trailer (40' x 8') which has electricity and heating stove. Be careful with door on the outbuilding. Also, Gutter Guard has been installedon the roof. Security system, upright freezer, all appliances, to remain. Property to be sold 'AS IS'.
Key facts
- Sunroom conversion
- Covered back deck
- 0.93 acre lot
Tags
Neighborhood map
What this means for you Summary
Snapshot
- This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $155k. Condition is rated fair.
Deal economics
- At list price, monthly cash flow is $317 ($4k/yr) — positive.
- The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
- Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $155k).
- Recommended offer: $136k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
Location & tenants
- Location reads 68/100 on livability (#260 in VA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: employment D+, amenities F, commute F.
- Scott County Public School District (rural): math 66% / reading 73% proficiency, ranked #33 of 131 in VA (top 25%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
- Zoned schools: Duffield-Pattonsville Primary (math 67% / reading 72%, grade A-, #313 of 1,108 statewide, top 32%, 286 students, 78% FRL); Rye Cove Intermediate (math 42% / reading 72%, grade B, #178 of 342 statewide, top 53%, 153 students, 78% FRL); Rye Cove High (math 57% / reading 72%, grade B-, #213 of 319 statewide, top 69%, 279 students, 76% FRL) — zoned schools average 77% FRL vs 48% district-wide (29 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
- Market conditions: 47 active listings in the ZIP; lower-income renter base — watch delinquency; 22 units permitted in Scott County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
- At $1,582/mo this rent would consume 51% of the median local household income ($37k/yr) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.
Forward outlook
- In year one you build about $5k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $4k appreciation (2.4% local appreciation)).
- Scott County population projected at -24% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
- At projected returns (2.4% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $43k cash investment doubles in ~5 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
- By year 7, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$30k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
Negotiation context
- It's been on market 726 days — a 12% lower offer ($136k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
- Current owner paid $65k; list at $155k implies a 138% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
Risks & watch-outs
- Watch-outs: built in 1940 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
Questions for the listing agent
- It's been on market 726 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
- Have any recent inspections been done? Can we get a copy of the seller's disclosures and any deferred-maintenance estimates?
- Built in 1940 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
- Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
- Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
- Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
- This sits on a lake — are riparian / water-frontage rights deeded with the parcel? Any dock permits, shoreline easements, or HOA water-use restrictions?
- What's the documented flood / surge / shoreline-erosion history here (FEMA AND non-FEMA — e.g., storm surge, creek backup, septic-field saturation)?
- Any water-quality or seasonal algae-bloom issues that affect tenant satisfaction or short-term-rental demand?
- What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
- What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
- How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.
Investment metrics
- 1% rule
- 1.02% ✓
- Cap rate
- 8.75%
- Cash-on-cash
- 8.76%
- DSCR
- 1.39
- GRM
- 8.2
CMA / ARV
- ARV (median comp)
- $236,811
- List price
- $155,000
- Delta
- -34.55%
- Verdict
- UNDERPRICED
- Comps
- 3 within 1.0 mi
Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi
| Address | Dist | Beds/Ba | Sqft | Sold | Price | $/sf | Match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1458 Fairview Rd | 1.49mi | 3/1.0 (+1) | 1,206 (-12%) | 17mo | $80,000 | $66 | 26 |
Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.
Projected returns pro-forma
2.39% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon
- IRR
- 14.1%
- Equity multiple
- 1.78×
- Total profit
- $33,853
- Equity at exit
- $64,437
- IRR
- 16.4%
- Equity multiple
- 3.27×
- Total profit
- $98,468
- Equity at exit
- $95,397
Cash invested: $43,400 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.
Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology
- Overall (STATE)
- 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning
- State Virginia
- 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning · D+2
- County
- — inherits STATE
- City
- — inherits STATE
Active competition Active MLS
- For sale now
- 2 active
- Median asking
- $72,000 ($60/sqft)
- Median days on market
- 89 d
- This list price
- 100% of active listings are priced below it
- ARV vs active asking
- +187.8% above current asking $/sqft
Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.
ZIP-level market 24244
- Home prices YoY
- 1.3%
- Active inventory
- 47
- Price-to-rent
- 8.2×
Monthly cashflow live
- Estimated rent
- $1,582 medium interval (Pro) →
- Mortgage (P&I)
- −$813
- Tax from tax record
- −$55 /mo · $665/yr
- Insurance
- −$65
- HOA
- −$0
- Lot rent
- −$0
- Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt
- −$332
- Net cashflow
- $317
Break-even live
Sensitivity live
| Price | -10% $405 | -5% $361 | +0% $317 | +5% $273 | +10% $229 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rent | -10% $192 | -5% $254 | +0% $317 | +5% $379 | +10% $442 |
| Rate | -1.0pp $395 | -0.5pp $356 | base $317 | +0.5pp $277 | +1.0pp $236 |
UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt
Financing live
Cash to close
- Down payment
- $38,750
- Closing costs
- $4,650
- Club membership (one-time)
- —
- Reserves months
- —
- Total cash needed
- —
Loan-product check · same deal, 3 products live
Conventional
25% down · 7.5% · 30yr
- Cash invested
- —
- Monthly P&I
- —
- Monthly cashflow
- —
- DSCR
- —
- Eligible?
- —
Personal DTI + credit; lowest rate.
DSCR
20% down · 8.5% · 30yr
- Cash invested
- —
- Monthly P&I
- —
- Monthly cashflow
- —
- DSCR
- —
- Eligible?
- —
No personal income docs; deal must DSCR.
Hard money
10% down · 12.0% · 12mo
- Cash invested
- —
- Monthly P&I
- —
- Monthly cashflow
- —
- DSCR
- —
- Eligible?
- —
Short-term bridge; refi at stabilization.
Listing history 50 events
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2026-09-05days on market $155,000 Active 726 DOM
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2026-09-04days on market $155,000 Active 725 DOM
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2026-09-03days on market $155,000 Active 724 DOM
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2026-09-02days on market $155,000 Active 723 DOM
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2026-08-29days on market $155,000 Active 719 DOM
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2026-08-28days on market $155,000 Active 718 DOM
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2026-08-27days on market $155,000 Active 717 DOM
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2026-08-26days on market $155,000 Active 716 DOM
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2026-08-25days on market $155,000 Active 715 DOM
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2026-08-24days on market $155,000 Active 714 DOM
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2026-08-23days on market $155,000 Active 713 DOM
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2026-08-22days on market $155,000 Active 712 DOM
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2026-08-21days on market $155,000 Active 711 DOM
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2026-08-20days on market $155,000 Active 710 DOM
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2026-08-19days on market $155,000 Active 709 DOM
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2026-08-18days on market $155,000 Active 708 DOM
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2026-08-17days on market $155,000 Active 707 DOM
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2026-08-16days on market $155,000 Active 706 DOM
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2026-08-15days on market $155,000 Active 705 DOM
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2026-08-14days on market $155,000 Active 704 DOM
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2026-08-13days on market $155,000 Active 703 DOM
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2026-08-12days on market $155,000 Active 702 DOM
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2026-08-11days on market $155,000 Active 701 DOM
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2026-08-10days on market $155,000 Active 700 DOM
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2026-08-09days on market $155,000 Active 699 DOM
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2026-08-08days on market $155,000 Active 698 DOM
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2026-08-07days on market $155,000 Active 697 DOM
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2026-08-06days on market $155,000 Active 696 DOM
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2026-08-05days on market $155,000 Active 695 DOM
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2026-08-04days on market $155,000 Active 694 DOM
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2026-08-03days on market $155,000 Active 693 DOM
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2026-07-31days on market $155,000 Active 690 DOM
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2026-07-30days on market $155,000 Active 689 DOM
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2026-07-29days on market $155,000 Active 688 DOM
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2026-07-27days on market $155,000 Active 686 DOM
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2026-07-26days on market $155,000 Active 685 DOM
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2026-07-24days on market $155,000 Active 683 DOM
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2026-07-23days on market $155,000 Active 682 DOM
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2026-07-22days on market $155,000 Active 681 DOM
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2026-07-21days on market $155,000 Active 680 DOM
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2026-07-20days on market $155,000 Active 679 DOM
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2026-07-18days on market $155,000 Active 677 DOM
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2026-07-17days on market $155,000 Active 676 DOM
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2026-07-16days on market $155,000 Active 675 DOM
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2026-07-14days on market $155,000 Active 673 DOM
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2026-07-13days on market $155,000 Active 672 DOM
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2026-07-12days on market $155,000 Active 671 DOM
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2026-07-11days on market $155,000 Active 670 DOM
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2026-07-10days on market $155,000 Active 669 DOM
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2026-07-09days on market $155,000 Active 668 DOM
ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot
backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.
Tax reassessment forecast VA · Resets to sale price
- Current annual tax
- $665 · $55/mo
- Projected year-2 tax
- $1,271 · $106/mo
- Expected delta
- +$606/yr (+$50/mo · 91.0%)
ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.
Nearby sold comps map
Loading sold comps map…
Walkable amenities ~0.75 mi
Loading nearby amenities…
Taxation est. · year 1
- Rental income
- $18,984
- − Mortgage interest
- −$8,682
- − Property taxes
- −$665
- − Insurance
- −$775
- − Repairs & maintenance
- −$1,519
- − Management
- −$1,519
- − Depreciation
- −$4,509
- Taxable income
- $1,315
- Est. tax owed @ 24.0%
- −$315
- After-tax cash flow
- $3,487/yr
For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.
Condition & rehab AI · 9 photos
This home requires moderate renovations, focusing on the roof and exterior siding, to significantly improve its value and appeal.
Components & finishes AI
Deferred maintenance Est. $2,500–$10,000 screening
- Minor Roof (roof) — No visible signs of damage or wear
- Minor Windows (windows) — No visible signs of damage or wear
- Minor Electrical (electrical) — No visible signs of damage or wear
- Minor Plumbing (plumbing) — No visible signs of damage or wear
- Minor Exterior (exterior) — No visible signs of damage or wear
Repairs flagged
- Major roof — Signs of significant wear
- Major exterior siding — Weathered and discolored
- Minor interior paint — Faded but not peeling
Value-add opportunities
- Both Paint exterior — Enhances curb appeal and value ↑
- Both Replace roof — Critical for structural integrity and longevity ↑
ⓘ Rehab cost is a screening estimate — Moderate scope × the home's square footage at US $/sqft rules of thumb (the same model as the Flip Finder). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting.
Zoned Schools
Schools (NCES district)
- District
- Scott County Public School District
- NCES district ID
- 5103480
- Math proficiency
- 66% ▼ -26.00%
- Reading proficiency
- 73% ▼ -12.00%
- Median HH income
- $36,567
- Composite
- 57.65/100
- National rank
- #1061
- State rank
- #33 of 131 in VA
Livability — Duffield
- Score
- 68/100
- State rank
- #260
- US rank
- #9124
Category grades
Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.
Census & demographics
- County
- Scott · 20,405 people
- Metro
- Kingsport-Bristol, TN-VA
- Population (ZIP)
- 5,531
- Household income
- $37,224
- Rent vs Own
- Severe rent burden
- 1% of renters
Population outlook (Scott County) Hauer SSP2
- Today (2025)
- 20,405 people
- By 2030
- 19,379 · -5.0%
- By 2040
- 17,325 · -15.1%
- By 2050
- 15,464 · -24.2%
- By 2075
- 11,845 · -42.0%
- By 2100
- 8,516 · -58.3%
Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023
- Neighborhood character
- Predominantly White (96%)
- Race & ethnicity
- White 96% Black 2% Two or more races 2% Hispanic / Latino 1%
- Common ancestry
- Italian 1% Serbian 1%
- Foreign-born
- 0%
- Languages at home
- 99% English-only · Spanish 1%
Political lean MEDSL · Scott
- 2024 margin
- Solid R (+70.4) · D 14.5% · R 84.9%
- 2008→2024 swing
- -27.3pp toward R · 2008: -43.1pp · 2024: -70.4pp
- All cycles
- 2024: R+70.4 2020: R+67.8 2016: R+66.3 2012: R+50.6 2008: R+43.1
Not yet ingested
- Civics
- —
Market trends
- HPI YoY
- ▲ 2.39%
- Current HPI
- 192.6919
- Rent YoY
- —
- Metro
- —
- State GDP YoY
- ▲ 2.40%
- F500 in state
- 50
Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in VA)
| Industry | F500 HQs | Revenue |
|---|---|---|
| Aerospace / Defense | 4 | $236B |
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| Technology / Defense | 3 | $32B |
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| Financial Services | 2 | $176B |
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| Utilities | 2 | $27B |
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| Insurance | 2 | $25B |
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| Technology | 2 | $15B |
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Price history
+138.5% since first listed6 events — show timeline
- 2026-01-05 Price Changed $155,000 TVRMLS
- 2025-06-22 Price Changed $169,000 TVRMLS
- 2024-09-27 Price Changed $175,000 TVRMLS
- 2024-09-20 Price Changed $189,000 TVRMLS
- 2024-09-09 Listed $199,000 TVRMLS
- 2000-11-01 Sold (Public Records) $65,000 Public Records
Property tax history
+1.5%/yrLatest (2025): $665 · +0.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.
Cash-flow waterfall
monthlySold comps — $/sqft
last 12 mo · ≤1 miLoading sold comps…