Ravenswood V G Plan · Lyman, MS 39503

$270,990

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,885 sqft · SingleFamily · 612 Days on market

Fair condition

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +10.8/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Rent growth +4.2/5.0
• Schools +4.2/10.0
• Livability +3.5/5.0
• 1% rule +3.2/10.0
• DSCR +3.1/10.0
• Condition / age +2.2/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

- Open Floor Plan - Four Bedrooms, Two Bathrooms - Brick and Siding Exterior - Master garden tub - Separate master shower - Double master vanity - Double walk-in master closets - Canned lighting in kitchen - Covered rear patio - Two-car garage

Key facts

• Open floor plan
• Master garden tub
• Double master vanity

Tags

• OPEN FLOOR PLAN
• BRICK AND SIDING EXTERIOR
• MASTER GARDEN TUB
• SEPARATE MASTER SHOWER
• DOUBLE MASTER VANITY
• DOUBLE WALK-IN MASTER CLOSETS

🏗️ New construction. The $270,990 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $282,555.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $271k. Condition is rated fair.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-131 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $264k (2.7% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $231k (14.9% below list).
• Recommended offer: $231k (14.9% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 5.7% vs local median 4.4% in Lyman — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 69/100 on livability (#47 in MS) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, cost of living A+; Watch: schools F, amenities F, commute F.
• Harrison County School District (rural): math 52% / reading 46% proficiency, ranked #14 of 130 in MS (top 11%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 62% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+7.0%/yr); 770 active listings in the ZIP; 4 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 23d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 2,194 units permitted in Harrison County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 44% of the median local income ($63k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Harrison County population projected at +27% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 612 days — a 12% lower offer ($238k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $230,544 (14.9% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 612 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 15% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Have any recent inspections been done? Can we get a copy of the seller's disclosures and any deferred-maintenance estimates?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.82% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.74%
• Cash-on-cash: -1.99%
• DSCR: 0.91
• GRM: 10.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $282,555
• List price: $270,990
• Delta: -4.09%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
15562 Soaring Loop	0.15mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,925 (+2%)	1mo	$287,900	$150	84
15123 High Point Dr	0.29mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,925 (+2%)	1mo	$279,120	$145	77
15162 High Point Dr	0.32mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,848 (-2%)	0mo	$275,477	$149	77
15163 High Point Dr	0.32mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,848 (-2%)	2mo	$279,164	$151	75
15264 High Point Dr	0.11mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,710 (-9%)	3mo	$263,780	$154	72
15184 High Point Dr	0.37mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,925 (+2%)	4mo	$277,190	$144	71
15124 High Point Dr	0.18mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,710 (-9%)	4mo	$262,500	$154	68
15115 High Point Dr	0.29mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,710 (-9%)	1mo	$262,996	$154	65
15193 High Point Dr	0.23mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,710 (-9%)	4mo	$262,500	$154	65
15065 High Point Dr	0.27mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,710 (-9%)	4mo	$261,365	$153	63
15207 High Point Dr	0.31mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,624 (-14%)	0mo	$252,455	$155	57
15363 Serene St	0.53mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,710 (-9%)	1mo	$256,417	$150	54

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 6.99% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -15.2%
• Equity multiple: 0.44×
• Total profit: $-44,492
• Equity at exit: $42,130

10-year hold

• IRR: -1.0%
• Equity multiple: 0.92×
• Total profit: $-6,484
• Equity at exit: $24,430

Cash invested: $79,115 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Mississippi: 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+11
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; very landlord-favorable; no rent control.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 39503

• Home prices YoY: -21.5%
• Rents YoY: 7.0%
• Active inventory: 770
• Price-to-rent: 9.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,305 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,482
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$353 /mo · $4,238/yr
• Insurance: −$118
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$484
• Net cashflow: $-131

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,472

Max offer price $263,546

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $64	-5% $-34	+0% $-131	+5% $-229	+10% $-327
Rent	-10% $-314	-5% $-222	+0% $-131	+5% $-40	+10% $51
Rate	-1.0pp $11	-0.5pp $-60	base $-131	+0.5pp $-205	+1.0pp $-279

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $70,639
• Closing costs: $8,477
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 4 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
15395 Percy St Gulfport, MS	3.0	2.0	1710	$1,975	$1.15	45d	1	0.73mi
15740 Rachael Dr Gulfport, MS	4.0	2.0	1928	$2,400	$1.24	15d	1	0.93mi
15033 S White Swan Dr Gulfport, MS	4.0	2.5	1933	$2,495	$1.29	23d	1	1.16mi
15336 Lakeview Ct Gulfport, MS	3.0	2.0	1837	$2,195	$1.19	23d	1	1.17mi

Listing history 18 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $270,990 Active 612 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $270,990 Active 609 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $270,990 Active 608 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $270,990 Active 607 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $270,990 Active 606 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $270,990 Active 604 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $270,990 Active 603 DOM
8. 2026-06-10
   days on market $270,990 Active 601 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $270,990 Active 600 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $270,990 Active 599 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $270,990 Active 598 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $270,990 Active 593 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $270,990 Active 592 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $270,990 Active 591 DOM
15. 2026-05-30
    days on market $270,990 Active 590 DOM
16. 2025-07-15
    price $270,990 246-char remark

    Show marketing remark (246 chars)

    - Open Floor Plan - Four Bedrooms, Two Bathrooms - Brick and Siding Exterior - Master garden tub - Separate master shower - Double master vanity - Double walk-in master closets - Canned lighting in kitchen - Covered rear patio - Two-car garage

17. 2025-05-09
    price $269,990 246-char remark

    Show marketing remark (246 chars)

    - Open Floor Plan - Four Bedrooms, Two Bathrooms - Brick and Siding Exterior - Master garden tub - Separate master shower - Double master vanity - Double walk-in master closets - Canned lighting in kitchen - Covered rear patio - Two-car garage

18. 2024-10-17
    listed $266,990 Active 246-char remark

    Show marketing remark (246 chars)

    - Open Floor Plan - Four Bedrooms, Two Bathrooms - Brick and Siding Exterior - Master garden tub - Separate master shower - Double master vanity - Double walk-in master closets - Canned lighting in kitchen - Covered rear patio - Two-car garage

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $27,665
• − Mortgage interest: −$15,827
• − Property taxes: −$4,238
• − Insurance: −$1,413
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,213
• − Management: −$2,213
• − Depreciation: −$8,220
• Taxable loss: −$6,459
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,550
• After-tax cash flow: $-26/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 3 photos

Fair 45/100 Moderate rehab

The home has a fair condition with some exterior repairs and maintenance needed. Landscaping and fencing repairs would significantly enhance its curb appeal and property value.

Repairs flagged

• Major Landscaping — Overgrown grass and weeds need trimming
• Major Fencing — White picket fence appears weathered and needs repainting

Value-add opportunities

• Both Landscaping and fencing repairs — Enhances curb appeal and property value
• Both Paint exterior — Improves curb appeal and property value

Renovation cost estimate screening

Repair item	Severity	Est. cost
Landscaping · Overgrown grass and weeds need trimming	Major	$15,000–50,000
Fencing · White picket fence appears weathered and needs repainting	Major	$15,000–50,000
Total estimated repair cost · 2 items		$30,000–100,000

Value-add ROI direction

• Both Landscaping and fencing repairs — Enhances curb appeal and property value ↑
• Both Paint exterior — Improves curb appeal and property value ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Harrison County School District
• NCES district ID: 2801770
• Math proficiency: 52% ▼ -4.00%
• Reading proficiency: 46% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $46,504
• Composite: 41.66/100
• National rank: #3419
• State rank: #14 of 130 in MS

Livability — Lyman

• Score: 69/100
• State rank: #47
• US rank: #8189

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Harrison County · 178,171 people
• Metro: Gulfport-Biloxi, MS
• Population (ZIP): 55,059
• Household income: $62,641
• Rent vs Own: 29.3% rent · 70.7% own
• Severe rent burden: 1686.0

Population outlook (Harrison County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 228,444 people
• By 2030: 241,942 · +5.9%
• By 2040: 267,531 · +17.1%
• By 2050: 291,062 · +27.4%
• By 2075: 346,711 · +51.8%
• By 2100: 378,165 · +65.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.58)
• Race & ethnicity: White 58% Black 27% Two or more races 9% Hispanic / Latino 6% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 2% Puerto Rican 1%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 5% Slovak 1% Portuguese 1%
• Foreign-born: 3% · Canada
• Languages at home: 95% English-only · Spanish 3%

Political lean MEDSL · Harrison

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+28.9) · D 35.0% · R 63.9% · Other 1.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: -2.9pp toward R · 2008: -26.0pp · 2024: -28.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+28.9 2020: R+25.2 2016: R+30.7 2012: R+26.6 2008: R+26.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -51.39%
• Current HPI: 187.285
• Rent YoY: ▲ 6.99%
• Metro: Gulfport-Biloxi, MS
• State GDP YoY: —
• F500 in state: 0

Price history

+1.5% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2025-07-15 Price Changed $270,990 Zillow
• 2025-05-09 Price Changed $269,990 Zillow
• 2024-10-17 Listed $266,990 Zillow