5172 Locust Ln · Thomson, IL 61285

$61,500

1 bd · 2.0 ba · 924 sqft · SingleFamily · 1 Days on market

Built 1979 0.53 ac lot Est $105k · 42% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the A- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• 1% rule +9.0/10.0
• Appreciation +7.4/10.0
• Livability +3.1/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +1.4/10.0

Listing remarks

Minutes from the mighty Mississippi River boat docks. 1 bedroom, 2 bath mobile home on a large 1/2-acre lot. 1 car garage, and 2 storage sheds. Great hunter or fishing get away! Above Ground pool and a 12x 12 Covered back deck. note: 2nd bath shower has been capped off. seller has said that the Central air and furnace 2012- Metal roof 2007- water heater 2025- well pump 2026

Key facts

• Metal roof
• Above ground pool
• Large 1/2-acre lot

Tags

• MISSISSIPPI RIVER BOAT DOCKS
• LARGE 1/2-ACRE LOT
• ABOVE GROUND POOL
• 12X 12 COVERED BACK DECK
• CENTRAL AIR AND FURNACE
• METAL ROOF

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Detached 1-car garage
• Utilities: Private well water; Septic sewer
• Home design: Residential mobile home
• Construction: Metal roof
• Exterior features: Above-ground private pool; 0.53-acre lot

Interior

• Kitchen: Gas cooktop; Microwave; Refrigerator
• Bathrooms: Two full bathrooms (both on the main level)
• Heating & cooling: Forced air heating; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Gas water heater
• Laundry & utility: Washer; Dryer

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 1-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $62k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $254 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($860 rent vs $62k).

Location & tenants

• Location reads 61/100 on livability (#927 in IL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime C-, amenities F, commute F.
• West Carroll CUSD 314 (rural): math 12% / reading 20% proficiency, ranked #498 of 620 in IL (top 80%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Zoned schools: West Carroll Primary (math 12% / reading 17%, grade F, #1,278 of 2,056 statewide, top 65%, 416 students, 0% FRL); West Carroll Middle School (math 10% / reading 24%, grade F, #460 of 665 statewide, top 72%, 193 students, 0% FRL); West Carroll High School (math 15% / reading 15%, grade F, #462 of 693 statewide, top 68%, 286 students, 0% FRL) — zoned schools average 0% FRL vs 50% district-wide (50 pts lower); this property's tenant base skews higher-income than the district average.
• Market conditions: 17 active listings in the ZIP; 23 units permitted in Carroll County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $3k of equity ($425 loan paydown + $3k appreciation (4.8% local appreciation)).
• Carroll County population projected at -30% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (4.8% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $17k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 10, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$34k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• Only 1 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 2 sale attempts since 23y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $28k; list at $62k implies a 124% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major flood risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $61,500

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1979 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.40% ✓
• Cap rate: 11.25%
• Cash-on-cash: 17.72%
• DSCR: 1.79
• GRM: 6.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $105,336
• Comps found: 1

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
5863 Miner Rd	0.74mi	2/1.0 (+1)	1,056 (+14%)	0mo	$120,000	$114	32

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

4.84% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 27.9%
• Equity multiple: 2.73×
• Total profit: $29,826
• Equity at exit: $34,261

10-year hold

• IRR: 26.9%
• Equity multiple: 5.44×
• Total profit: $76,468
• Equity at exit: $58,647

Cash invested: $17,220 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 43 Moderately Tenant-Leaning
• State Illinois: 43 Moderately Tenant-Leaning · D+7
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Chicago RTLO is among the strongest tenant ordinances in the Midwest; downstate is more landlord-friendly.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 61285

• Home prices YoY: 2.6%
• Active inventory: 17
• Price-to-rent: 6.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $860 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$323
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$77 /mo · $922/yr
• Insurance: −$26
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$181
• Net cashflow: $254

Break-even live

Break-even rent $538

Max offer price $61,500

Occupancy floor 65%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $297	-5% $275	+0% $254	+5% $233	+10% $212
Rent	-10% $186	-5% $220	+0% $254	+5% $288	+10% $322
Rate	-1.0pp $285	-0.5pp $270	base $254	+0.5pp $238	+1.0pp $222

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $15,375
• Closing costs: $1,845
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 2 events

1. 2026-06-19
   remarks 377-char remark
2. 2026-06-19
   listed $61,500 Active 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 6/10 Major FEMA zone X (shaded) · 74% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥103°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $10,318
• − Mortgage interest: −$3,445
• − Property taxes: −$922
• − Insurance: −$308
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$825
• − Management: −$825
• − Depreciation: −$1,789
• Taxable income: $2,203
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$529
• After-tax cash flow: $2,522/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: West Carroll CUSD 314
• NCES district ID: 1700310
• Math proficiency: 12% ▼ -5.00%
• Reading proficiency: 20% ▼ -3.00%
• Median HH income: $43,090
• Composite: 13.91/100
• National rank: #9483
• State rank: #498 of 620 in IL

Livability — Thomson

• Score: 61/100
• State rank: #927
• US rank: #18008

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime C- Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 2,687

Population outlook (Carroll County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 13,010 people
• By 2030: 12,150 · -6.6%
• By 2040: 10,462 · -19.6%
• By 2050: 9,078 · -30.2%
• By 2075: 6,704 · -48.5%
• By 2100: 5,004 · -61.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (68%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 68% Black 20% Hispanic / Latino 9% Two or more races 4% Native American 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 2%
• Common ancestry: Iranian 4% Portuguese 2% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 2% · Canada
• Languages at home: 93% English-only · Spanish 7%

Political lean MEDSL · Carroll

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+31.7) · D 33.2% · R 64.8% · Other 2.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -36.5pp toward R · 2008: 4.8pp · 2024: -31.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+31.7 2020: R+29.4 2016: R+27.1 2012: D+1.4 2008: D+4.8

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 4.84%
• Current HPI: 190.7445
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.59%
• F500 in state: 60

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in IL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Insurance	4	$201B
▸Consumer Goods	4	$87B
▸Industrial Machinery	3	$64B
▸Healthcare	2	$55B
▸Retail / Pharmacy	1	$148B
▸Agriculture / Food	1	$86B

Price history

+54.1% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-18 Listed $61,500 NWIAR
• 2004-03-26 Sold (Public Records) $28,500 Public Records
• 2004-03-26 Sold (MLS) $27,500 RMLSA as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2003-11-10 Listed $39,900 RMLSA as Distributed by MLS Grid

Property tax history

+14.3%/yr

Latest (2023): $102 · +277.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.