533 Kirkland Rd · Old Town, ME 04468

$449,000

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,836 sqft · MultiFamily public records · 20 Days on market

Built 1969 6.47 ac lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +23.2/30.0
• DSCR +7.5/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +6.8/10.0
• 1% rule +5.7/10.0
• Livability +3.8/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +2.4/10.0

Multi-family units

County records classify this as Multi-Family (2-4 Unit). Listing-text estimate: 1 unit. estimate disagrees with records

Listing remarks MLS

4 bedroom 2.5 raised ranch with rear deck, in law apartment, 3 car detached garage and 5.7 acres. Private location yet minutes to the University of Maine.

Key facts

• In law apartment
• Privacy
• Large open yard

Tags

• IN LAW APARTMENT
• LARGE OPEN YARD
• CONVENIENT TO UMO
• PRIVACY
• OVER 6 ACRES

Property features AI

Finance

• Financial info: R-3 Rural Res zoning

Exterior

• Parking: Detached 3-car garage; Additional gravel parking with 21+ spaces; Vehicle storage with storage area above
• Utilities: Private well water; Private sewer / septic tank; Circuit breakers and generator hookup; Utilities connected; Water heater off heating system
• Home design: Single family residence; Built in 1969
• Construction: Wood frame construction with vinyl siding; Shingle roof; Below-grade finished living area in basement
• Exterior features: Deck; Outbuilding; Near shopping and turnpike/interstate; Rural setting with level, wooded lot; Paved road access

Interior

• Kitchen: Electric range; Gas range; Dishwasher; Refrigerator
• Bedrooms: Multiple bedrooms on the first floor; At least one bedroom located in the basement
• Flooring: Carpet; Laminate; Vinyl
• Bathrooms: 3 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Baseboard heating; Direct vent heater; Hot water heating; Pellet stove
• Interior features: Finished basement with interior entry, bulkhead access, and full basement; Bathtub; In-law floorplan; Double-pane windows; 9 total rooms
• Laundry & utility: Washer; Dryer

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath multifamily listed at $449k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $817 ($10k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($5k rent vs $449k).
• Recommended offer: $442k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 8.5% vs local median 6.0% in Old Town — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 75/100 on livability (#38 in ME, #3,905 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: schools D+, employment D, amenities F.
• RSU 34 (suburban): math 81% / reading 83% proficiency, ranked #80 of 112 in ME (top 71%) — strong family-tenant draw, lease renewals of 3-5y typical.
• Market conditions: 46 active listings in the ZIP; 440 units permitted in Penobscot County in 2024 (40 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $4,803/mo this rent would consume 102% of the median local household income ($56k/yr) (locally 334% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $13k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Penobscot County population projected at -17% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 20 days — a 2% lower offer ($442k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts since 11y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $110k; list at $449k implies a 308% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 27% chance of damaging wind over 30y — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $442,265 (1.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1969 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.07% ✓
• Cap rate: 8.48%
• Cash-on-cash: 7.80%
• DSCR: 1.35
• GRM: 7.8

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -4.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.84×
• Total profit: $-20,731
• Equity at exit: $66,947

10-year hold

• IRR: 5.3%
• Equity multiple: 1.39×
• Total profit: $48,927
• Equity at exit: $38,821

Cash invested: $125,720 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 41 Moderately Tenant-Leaning
• State Maine: 41 Moderately Tenant-Leaning · D+2
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Portland has rent control referendum (2020); strong habitability; security deposit caps.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 04468

• Home prices YoY: -1.8%
• Active inventory: 46
• Price-to-rent: 23.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $4,803 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,355
• Tax from tax record: −$436 /mo · $5,229/yr
• Insurance: −$187
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$1,009
• Net cashflow: $817

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,769

Max offer price $449,000

Occupancy floor 78%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $1,071	-5% $944	+0% $817	+5% $690	+10% $563
Rent	-10% $437	-5% $627	+0% $817	+5% $1,007	+10% $1,196
Rate	-1.0pp $1,043	-0.5pp $931	base $817	+0.5pp $701	+1.0pp $582

3-unit breakdown (identical units grouped — click to expand)

Units	Beds	Baths	Est. rent
▸ 3× units	2	1	$4,803
Total (3 units)			$4,803

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $112,250
• Closing costs: $13,470
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 15 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $449,000 Active 20 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $449,000 Active 19 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $449,000 Active 18 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $449,000 Active 17 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $449,000 Active 16 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $449,000 Active 14 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $449,000 Active 13 DOM
8. 2026-06-10
   days on market $449,000 Active 11 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $449,000 Active 10 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $449,000 Active 9 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $449,000 Active 8 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $449,000 Active 3 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $449,000 Active 2 DOM
14. 2026-05-30
    remarks 251-char remark
15. 2026-05-30
    listed $449,000 Active 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast ME · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $5,229 · $436/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $5,668 · $472/mo
• Expected delta: +$439/yr (+$37/mo · 8.4%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 2/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥92°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 27% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $57,636
• − Mortgage interest: −$25,151
• − Property taxes: −$5,229
• − Insurance: −$2,245
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$4,611
• − Management: −$4,611
• − Depreciation: −$13,062
• Taxable income: $2,727
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$655
• After-tax cash flow: $9,149/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: RSU 34
• NCES district ID: 2314782
• Math proficiency: 81% ▲ 48.00%
• Reading proficiency: 83% ▲ 31.00%
• Median HH income: $39,466
• Composite: 68.31/100
• National rank: #351
• State rank: #80 of 112 in ME

Livability — Old Town

• Score: 75/100
• State rank: #38
• US rank: #3905

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment D Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Old Town, ME
• County: Penobscot County · 81,539 people
• City population: 9,291
• Metro: Bangor, ME
• Population (ZIP): 9,291
• Household income: $56,358
• Rent vs Own: 35.3% rent · 64.7% own
• Severe rent burden: 334.0

Population outlook (Penobscot County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 149,928 people
• By 2030: 146,386 · -2.4%
• By 2040: 135,952 · -9.3%
• By 2050: 123,864 · -17.4%
• By 2075: 97,825 · -34.8%
• By 2100: 77,196 · -48.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (88%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 88% Native American 6% Two or more races 3% Hispanic / Latino 2%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 18% Slovak 4% Romanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 2% · Canada
• Languages at home: 96% English-only · French/Haitian/Cajun 1% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Penobscot

• 2024 margin: R (+10.9) · D 43.6% · R 54.5% · Other 1.9%
• 2008→2024 swing: -15.9pp toward R · 2008: 5.0pp · 2024: -10.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+10.9 2020: R+8.3 2016: R+10.9 2012: D+2.9 2008: D+5.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -5.29%
• Current HPI: 285.3183
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Bangor, ME
• State GDP YoY: —
• F500 in state: 0

Price history

+199.5% since first listed

8 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-30 Listed $449,000 MREIS
• 2026-04-28 Delisted — MREIS
• 2026-02-18 Price Changed $475,000 MREIS
• 2025-11-04 Listed $479,000 MREIS
• 2016-03-25 Sold (MLS) $110,000 MREIS
• 2016-02-16 Pending — MREIS
• 2016-02-05 Price Changed $124,900 MREIS
• 2015-12-29 Listed $149,900 MREIS

Property tax history

+3.3%/yr

Latest (2025): $5,229 · +11.9% YoY. Source: county tax records.