535 Mt Pleasant Dr · Lake of the Woods, VA 22508

$294,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,656 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 242 Days on market

Built 1969 $178/sqft · 25% below area Est $394k · 25% under $191/mo HOA · 7% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +16.8/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +5.2/10.0
• Schools +4.8/10.0
• 1% rule +4.4/10.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Welcome to 535 Mt. Pleasant Dr. This home is located in a gated, Lake of the Woods community, that offers many amenities. With access to 2 lakes, 2 pools, 9 sand beaches, biking paths, 2 marinas, Equestrian Center, dog parks, playgrounds, soccer fields, basketball court, horse trails, pickleball/tennis courts, club house, gym and more. Sellers has installed a new dishwasher, washing machine and disposal. Seller is selling "AS IS" . Schedule a showing today! Don't miss this opportunity to own in this lovely community. Priced at $294,000 with 3 bedrooms and 2 full baths! * Seller Motivated * With right offer seller will consider "closing help"

Key facts

• Community pool
• Built 1969
• Listed 241 days

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $294k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $189 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $277k (5.9% below list).
• Recommended offer: $259k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 7.1% vs local median 4.3% in Lake of the Woods — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 65/100 on livability (#341 in VA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+, crime A-; Watch: cost of living C-, schools D+, amenities F.
• Orange County Public School District (rural): math 47% / reading 64% proficiency, ranked #71 of 131 in VA (top 54%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: 189 active listings in the ZIP; 4 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 44d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 50% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; high-income renter base; 412 units permitted in Orange County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $9k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Orange County population projected at +18% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 242 days — a 12% lower offer ($259k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 12 sale attempts since 29y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $16k (5%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $185k; list at $294k implies a 59% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→16/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $258,720 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 242 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1969 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.94% ✗
• Cap rate: 7.06%
• Cash-on-cash: 2.75%
• DSCR: 1.12
• GRM: 8.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $393,760
• List price: $294,000
• Delta: -25.34%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
533 Mount Pleasant Dr	0.01mi	3/2.0	1,530 (-8%)	1mo	$350,000	$229	86
203 Musket Ln	0.19mi	3/2.0	1,737 (+5%)	2mo	$405,000	$233	82
117 Green St	0.42mi	3/2.0	1,615 (-2%)	2mo	$394,000	$244	74
141 Green St	0.45mi	3/2.0	1,690 (+2%)	4mo	$407,000	$241	72
314 Fairway Dr	0.21mi	3/2.0	1,794 (+8%)	5mo	$400,000	$223	72
207 Spotswood Rd	0.36mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,530 (-8%)	2mo	$379,000	$248	64
331 Fairway Dr	0.10mi	3/2.5	1,900 (+15%)	7mo	$400,000	$211	63
117 Eagle	0.67mi	3/2.0	1,632 (-1%)	5mo	$390,000	$239	62
420 Birdie Rd	0.62mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,632 (-1%)	3mo	$407,500	$250	62
510 Birdie Rd	0.74mi	3/2.0	1,699 (+3%)	1mo	$375,000	$221	60
125 Cumberland Cir	0.53mi	3/2.0	1,824 (+10%)	5mo	$345,000	$189	54
4207 Lakeview Pkwy	0.60mi	3/2.0	1,432 (-14%)	3mo	$355,000	$248	48

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -11.9%
• Equity multiple: 0.57×
• Total profit: $-35,592
• Equity at exit: $43,836

10-year hold

• IRR: -2.8%
• Equity multiple: 0.81×
• Total profit: $-15,422
• Equity at exit: $25,420

Cash invested: $82,320 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning
• State Virginia: 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning · D+2
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

VRLTA gives some tenant protections; Northern Virginia courts slower; rural VA landlord-leaning.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 22508

• Home prices YoY: -5.0%
• Active inventory: 189
• Price-to-rent: 8.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,766 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,542
• Tax from tax record: −$141 /mo · $1,696/yr
• Insurance: −$122
• HOA: −$191
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$581
• Net cashflow: $189

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,527

Max offer price $294,000

Occupancy floor 88%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $73,500
• Closing costs: $8,820
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 4 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
306 Happy Creek Rd Locust Grove, VA	3.0	2.0	1630	$2,695	$1.65	43d	1	1.04mi
210 Wakefield Dr Locust Grove, VA	3.0	2.5	2211	$2,500	$1.13	1d	1	1.25mi
1006 Lakeview Pkwy Locust Grove, VA	3.0	2.0	1222	$2,200	$1.80	43d	1	1.33mi
405 Cornwallis Ave Locust Grove, VA	3.0	2.0	1728	$2,800	$1.62	1d	1	1.35mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $191 · $2,292/yr
• Likely covers: landscapingpoolgymsecurity

Listing history 44 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $294,000 Active 242 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $294,000 Active 241 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $294,000 Active 240 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $294,000 Active 239 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $294,000 Active 237 DOM
6. 2026-06-09
   days on market $294,000 Active 233 DOM
7. 2026-06-08
   days on market $294,000 Active 232 DOM
8. 2026-06-07
   days on market $294,000 Active 231 DOM
9. 2026-06-04
   days on market $294,000 Active 228 DOM
10. 2026-06-03
    days on market $294,000 Active 227 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    days on market $294,000 Active 226 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    days on market $294,000 Active 225 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $294,000 Active 224 DOM
14. 2026-02-22
    price $294,000 671-char remark

    Show marketing remark (671 chars)

    Welcome to 535 Mt. Pleasant Dr. This home is located in a gated, Lake of the Woods community, that offers many amenities. With access to 2 lakes, 2 pools, 9 sand beaches, biking paths, 2 marinas, Equestrian Center, dog parks, playgrounds, soccer fields, basketball court, horse trails, pickleball/tennis courts, club house, gym and more. Sellers has installed a new dishwasher, washing machine and disposal. Seller is selling "AS IS" . Schedule a showing today! Don't miss this opportunity to own in this lovely community. Priced at $294,000 with 3 bedrooms and 2 full baths! * Seller Motivated * With right offer seller will consider "closing help"

15. 2025-12-02
    price $300,000 671-char remark

    Show marketing remark (671 chars)

    Welcome to 535 Mt. Pleasant Dr. This home is located in a gated, Lake of the Woods community, that offers many amenities. With access to 2 lakes, 2 pools, 9 sand beaches, biking paths, 2 marinas, Equestrian Center, dog parks, playgrounds, soccer fields, basketball court, horse trails, pickleball/tennis courts, club house, gym and more. Sellers has installed a new dishwasher, washing machine and disposal. Seller is selling "AS IS" . Schedule a showing today! Don't miss this opportunity to own in this lovely community. Priced at $294,000 with 3 bedrooms and 2 full baths! * Seller Motivated * With right offer seller will consider "closing help"

16. 2025-10-20
    listed $310,000 Active 671-char remark

    Show marketing remark (671 chars)

    Welcome to 535 Mt. Pleasant Dr. This home is located in a gated, Lake of the Woods community, that offers many amenities. With access to 2 lakes, 2 pools, 9 sand beaches, biking paths, 2 marinas, Equestrian Center, dog parks, playgrounds, soccer fields, basketball court, horse trails, pickleball/tennis courts, club house, gym and more. Sellers has installed a new dishwasher, washing machine and disposal. Seller is selling "AS IS" . Schedule a showing today! Don't miss this opportunity to own in this lovely community. Priced at $294,000 with 3 bedrooms and 2 full baths! * Seller Motivated * With right offer seller will consider "closing help"

17. 2025-10-06
    historical $310,000 671-char remark

    Show marketing remark (671 chars)

    Welcome to 535 Mt. Pleasant Dr. This home is located in a gated, Lake of the Woods community, that offers many amenities. With access to 2 lakes, 2 pools, 9 sand beaches, biking paths, 2 marinas, Equestrian Center, dog parks, playgrounds, soccer fields, basketball court, horse trails, pickleball/tennis courts, club house, gym and more. Sellers has installed a new dishwasher, washing machine and disposal. Seller is selling "AS IS" . Schedule a showing today! Don't miss this opportunity to own in this lovely community. Priced at $294,000 with 3 bedrooms and 2 full baths! * Seller Motivated * With right offer seller will consider "closing help"

18. 2020-07-31
    soldstatus $185,000
19. 2020-07-29
    soldstatus $185,000 Closed
20. 2020-07-26
    status Pending
21. 2020-06-30
    historical Active Under Contract
22. 2020-06-20
    listed $185,000
23. 2020-06-15
    listed $185,000 Active
24. 2017-10-01
    historical
25. 2017-08-11
    historical Temporarily Off-Market
26. 2017-06-05
    listed $159,900
27. 2017-06-05
    listed Active
28. 2016-12-01
    historical
29. 2016-12-01
    historical Expired
30. 2016-09-24
    listed Active
31. 2016-09-23
    listed $174,900
32. 2010-04-21
    soldstatus $91,000 Sold
33. 2010-04-21
    soldstatus $91,000
34. 2010-02-26
    status Contract
35. 2010-02-25
    historical
36. 2010-02-07
    listed $89,900 Active
37. 2010-02-07
    listed $89,900
38. 2003-07-19
    historical
39. 2003-07-18
    listed
40. 2001-06-29
    historical
41. 2001-02-12
    listed
42. 1998-04-24
    soldstatus $69,000
43. 1998-02-17
    historical
44. 1997-09-13
    listed $74,900

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast VA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,696 · $141/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,411 · $201/mo
• Expected delta: +$715/yr (+$60/mo · 42.2%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 2/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥104°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 3/10 Moderate 9% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $33,197
• − Mortgage interest: −$16,469
• − Property taxes: −$1,696
• − Insurance: −$1,470
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,656
• − Management: −$2,656
• − HOA: −$2,292
• − Depreciation: −$8,553
• Taxable loss: −$2,594
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$623
• After-tax cash flow: $2,889/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Orange County Public School District
• NCES district ID: 5102820
• Math proficiency: 47% ▼ -35.00%
• Reading proficiency: 64% ▼ -14.00%
• Median HH income: $61,086
• Composite: 48.34/100
• National rank: #2147
• State rank: #71 of 131 in VA

Livability — Lake of the Woods

• Score: 65/100
• State rank: #341
• US rank: #13456

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living C- Crime A- Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings B-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Lake of the Woods, VA
• County: Orange County · 21,992 people
• Metro: Washington-Arlington-Alexandria, DC-VA-MD-WV
• Population (ZIP): 15,557
• Household income: $111,357
• Rent vs Own: 7.1% rent · 92.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 102.0

Population outlook (Orange County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 38,758 people
• By 2030: 40,411 · +4.3%
• By 2040: 43,477 · +12.2%
• By 2050: 45,856 · +18.3%
• By 2075: 51,067 · +31.8%
• By 2100: 51,387 · +32.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (73%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 73% Two or more races 10% Hispanic / Latino 10% Black 8% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 3% Puerto Rican 2%
• Common ancestry: Serbian 3% Romanian 3% Lithuanian 3%
• Foreign-born: 7% · Canada, South Korea
• Languages at home: 91% English-only · Spanish 5% French/Haitian/Cajun 2% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Orange

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+24.7) · D 37.2% · R 61.9%
• 2008→2024 swing: -15.8pp toward R · 2008: -8.8pp · 2024: -24.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+24.7 2020: R+21.4 2016: R+26.6 2012: R+14.5 2008: R+8.8

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -20.88%
• Current HPI: 401.2932
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Washington-Arlington-Alexandria, DC-VA-MD-WV
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.40%
• F500 in state: 50

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in VA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Aerospace / Defense	4	$236B
▸Technology / Defense	3	$32B
▸Financial Services	2	$176B
▸Utilities	2	$27B
▸Insurance	2	$25B
▸Technology	2	$15B

Price history

+292.5% since first listed

31 events — show timeline

• 2026-02-22 Price Changed $294,000 BRIGHT MLS
• 2025-12-02 Price Changed $300,000 BRIGHT MLS
• 2025-10-20 Listed $310,000 BRIGHT MLS
• 2025-10-06 Coming Soon $310,000 BRIGHT MLS
• 2020-07-31 Sold (Public Records) $185,000 Public Records
• 2020-07-29 Sold (MLS) $185,000 BRIGHT MLS
• 2020-07-26 Pending — BRIGHT MLS
• 2020-06-30 Contingent — BRIGHT MLS
• 2020-06-20 Listed $185,000 CAAR
• 2020-06-15 Listed $185,000 BRIGHT MLS
• 2017-10-01 Listing Removed — BRIGHT MLS
• 2017-08-11 Delisted — MRIS
• 2017-06-05 Listed $159,900 BRIGHT MLS
• 2017-06-05 Listed — MRIS
• 2016-12-01 Delisted — MRIS
• 2016-12-01 Listing Removed — BRIGHT MLS
• 2016-09-24 Listed — MRIS
• 2016-09-23 Listed $174,900 BRIGHT MLS
• 2010-04-21 Sold (MLS) $91,000 BRIGHT MLS
• 2010-04-21 Sold (MLS) $91,000 MRIS
• 2010-02-26 Pending — MRIS
• 2010-02-25 Listing Removed — BRIGHT MLS
• 2010-02-07 Listed $89,900 MRIS
• 2010-02-07 Listed $89,900 BRIGHT MLS
• 2003-07-19 Delisted — MRIS
• 2003-07-18 Listed — MRIS
• 2001-06-29 Delisted — MRIS
• 2001-02-12 Listed — MRIS
• 1998-04-24 Sold (MLS) $69,000 MRIS
• 1998-02-17 Delisted — MRIS
• 1997-09-13 Listed $74,900 MRIS

Property tax history

+2.3%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,696 · +40.6% YoY. Source: county tax records.