1511-1513 48TH St · Union City, NJ 07047

$900,000

9 bd · 3.9 ba · 2,172 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 23 Days on market

Built 1916

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Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Livability +3.9/5.0
• Cash flow +3.7/30.0
• Rent growth +3.7/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.2/10.0
• 1% rule +0.0/10.0
• DSCR +0.0/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Location !!, Location !!. Location !!

Key facts

• Listed 23 days

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: No on-site parking
• Home design: Multifamily layout with two full levels
• Construction: Lead paint form present
• Exterior features: Aluminum/vinyl exterior finish

Interior

• Kitchen: Two kitchens total (one on each level); Oven; Stove
• Bedrooms: Four bedrooms on the first floor; Four bedrooms on the second floor
• Bathrooms: Four full bathrooms total (two full on the first floor, two full on the second floor)
• Heating & cooling: Window A/C; Baseboard heating
• Interior features: Finished full basement

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 9-bed/3.9-bath single-family listed at $900k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-3k ($-32k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $431k (52.2% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $420k (53.4% below list).
• Recommended offer: $420k (53.4% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 2.7% vs local median 2.3% in Union City — meaningfully above typical; check what's discounted (condition, days-on-market, listing class) to confirm the premium yield is real.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 77/100 on livability (#117 in NJ, #2,998 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, health & safety A; Watch: cost of living F.
• North Bergen School District (suburban): math 12% / reading 37% proficiency, ranked #393 of 472 in NJ (top 83%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+5.0%/yr); 209 active listings in the ZIP; solid renter incomes; 5,310 units permitted in Hudson County in 2024 (4,154 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $4,196/mo this rent would consume 64% of the median local household income ($79k/yr) (locally 3908% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $6k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $27k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Hudson County population projected at +29% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 23 days — a 2% lower offer ($886k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 7y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $399k; list at $900k implies a 126% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1916 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 27% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→15/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $419,637 (53.4% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. Built in 1916 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.47% ✗
• Cap rate: 2.75%
• Cash-on-cash: -12.66%
• DSCR: 0.44
• GRM: 17.9

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 4.99% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -37.9%
• Equity multiple: -0.22×
• Total profit: $-306,623
• Equity at exit: $134,193

10-year hold

• IRR: -44.4%
• Equity multiple: -0.78×
• Total profit: $-448,695
• Equity at exit: $77,816

Cash invested: $252,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 21 Tenant-Leaning
• State New Jersey: 21 Tenant-Leaning · D+6
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Anti-eviction Act requires just-cause statewide; rent control in 100+ municipalities; one of the most tenant-friendly states.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 07047

• Home prices YoY: -31.5%
• Rents YoY: 5.0%
• Active inventory: 209
• Price-to-rent: 17.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $4,196 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$4,720
• Tax from tax record: −$878 /mo · $10,537/yr
• Insurance: −$375
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$881
• Net cashflow: $-2,658

Break-even live

Break-even rent $7,560

Max offer price $430,521

Occupancy floor —

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $225,000
• Closing costs: $27,000
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 7 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $900,000 Active 23 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $900,000 Active 22 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $900,000 Active 21 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $900,000 Active 20 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $900,000 Active 18 DOM
6. 2026-06-10
   remarks 37-char remark
7. 2026-06-10
   listed $900,000 Active 14 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NJ · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $10,537 · $878/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $16,473 · $1,373/mo
• Expected delta: +$5,937/yr (+$495/mo · 56.3%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 4/10 Moderate FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 24% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥98°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 27% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 4/10 Moderate 5 unhealthy d/yr today · 6 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $50,356
• − Mortgage interest: −$50,414
• − Property taxes: −$10,537
• − Insurance: −$4,500
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$4,029
• − Management: −$4,029
• − Depreciation: −$26,182
• Taxable loss: −$49,333
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$11,840
• After-tax cash flow: $-20,051/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: North Bergen School District
• NCES district ID: 3411460
• Math proficiency: 12% ▼ -16.00%
• Reading proficiency: 37% ▼ -10.00%
• Median HH income: $54,275
• Composite: 21.95/100
• National rank: #8221
• State rank: #393 of 472 in NJ

Livability — Union City

• Score: 77/100
• State rank: #117
• US rank: #2998

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A+ Cost of living F Crime C+ Employment C+ Housing C+ Health & safety A User ratings B-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Hudson County · 718,323 people
• City population: 66,463
• Metro: New York-Newark-Jersey City, NY-NJ-PA
• Population (ZIP): 61,250
• Household income: $78,911
• Rent vs Own: 58.4% rent · 41.6% own
• Severe rent burden: 3908.0

Population outlook (Hudson County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 771,834 people
• By 2030: 818,028 · +6.0%
• By 2040: 907,866 · +17.6%
• By 2050: 994,480 · +28.8%
• By 2075: 1,163,301 · +50.7%
• By 2100: 1,254,703 · +62.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly Hispanic (69%)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 69% Two or more races 26% White 20% Asian 7% Black 3% Native American 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 2% Puerto Rican 7% Cuban 11% Dominican 12%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 1% Lithuanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 50% · Canada, Jamaica, South Korea
• Languages at home: 27% English-only · Spanish 61% Other Indo-European 4% Arabic 3%

Political lean MEDSL · Hudson

• 2024 margin: Strong D (+28.1) · D 62.6% · R 34.6% · Other 2.8%
• 2008→2024 swing: -18.7pp toward R · 2008: 46.7pp · 2024: 28.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+28.1 2020: D+46.2 2016: D+51.8 2012: D+55.7 2008: D+46.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -192.36%
• Current HPI: 419.0283
• Rent YoY: ▲ 4.99%
• Metro: New York-Newark-Jersey City, NY-NJ-PA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.05%
• F500 in state: 34

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NJ)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Consumer Goods	3	$31B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$153B
▸Technology	2	$21B
▸Insurance	2	$20B
▸Healthcare	2	$19B
▸Financial Services	1	$70B

Price history

+332.7% since first listed

5 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-18 Listed $900,000 HCMLS
• 2021-06-24 Sold (Public Records) $399,000 Public Records
• 2020-06-01 Listing Removed — HCMLS
• 2019-11-21 Listed $569,000 HCMLS
• 2001-09-24 Sold (Public Records) $208,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+4.8%/yr

Latest (2025): $10,537 · +4.6% YoY. Source: county tax records.