4024 Piney Rd · Gamewell, NC 28655

$199,900

3 bd · 0.5 ba · 1,952 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 17 Days on market

Built 1968 0.49 ac lot Est $201k · at est.

---

Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +13.6/30.0
• ARV discount +7.8/15.0
• DSCR +4.1/10.0
• Schools +3.8/10.0
• Livability +3.0/5.0
• 1% rule +2.8/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Tucked away in a private, secluded setting, this brick ranch offers the perfect opportunity to create your own peaceful retreat! Situated on a spacious lot with plenty of privacy, this home features solid construction, a functional layout, and endless potential for the right buyer. Inside, you’ll find generous living spaces ready for your personal touch and updates. Whether you’re looking for a primary residence, investment property, or a quiet country getaway, this property offers great bones and room to make it your own. Enjoy the serenity of nature, mature surroundings, and the comfort of a secluded location while still being conveniently located to Morganton amenities. ? Bri

Key facts

• 0.49 acre lot
• Built 1968
• Listed 17 days

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: No HOA

Exterior

• Parking: Attached carport; Driveway
• Utilities: City water; Septic system installed
• Home design: Single-family residential home; Site-built construction; One level (with finished basement)
• Construction: Brick exterior; Basement foundation
• Exterior features: Concrete and paved road access; Publicly maintained road

Interior

• Kitchen: Electric cooktop; Electric range; Refrigerator
• Bedrooms: Two bedrooms on the main level; Two bedrooms in the basement (total of four bedrooms)
• Bathrooms: Two full bathrooms (one on main level, one in basement)
• Heating & cooling: Electric baseboard heating; Ceiling fans; Heat pump
• Interior features: Finished walk-out basement; One main-level room count listed
• Laundry & utility: Laundry located in the basement

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/0.5-bath single-family listed at $200k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $12 ($142/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $155k (22.5% below list).
• Recommended offer: $155k (22.5% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.4% vs local median 1.3% in Gamewell — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 60/100 on livability (#518 in NC) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, crime B+; Watch: employment D, amenities F, commute F.
• Burke County Schools (rural): math 43% / reading 47% proficiency, ranked #89 of 178 in NC (top 50%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Mountain View Elementary (math 32% / reading 28%, grade F, #965 of 1,410 statewide, top 69%, 677 students, 85% FRL); Freedom High (math 61% / reading 51%, grade C, #264 of 535 statewide, top 49%, 1,414 students, 64% FRL) — zoned schools average 74% FRL vs 52% district-wide (22 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: 431 active listings in the ZIP; 422 units permitted in Burke County in 2024 (94 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 32% of the median local income ($58k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Burke County population projected at -18% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 17 days — a 2% lower offer ($197k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: moderate wildfire risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $154,942 (22.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1968 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.78% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.36%
• Cash-on-cash: 0.25%
• DSCR: 1.01
• GRM: 10.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $201,056
• Comps found: 1

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
4080 Piney Rd	0.10mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,748 (-10%)	23mo	$180,000	$103	48

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -16.0%
• Equity multiple: 0.43×
• Total profit: $-31,719
• Equity at exit: $29,806

10-year hold

• IRR: -7.6%
• Equity multiple: 0.52×
• Total profit: $-26,978
• Equity at exit: $17,284

Cash invested: $55,972 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 85 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State North Carolina: 85 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

10-day notice; preempted; landlord-favorable but court speed varies.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 28655

• Home prices YoY: -13.2%
• Active inventory: 431
• Price-to-rent: 10.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,549 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,048
• Tax from tax record: −$81 /mo · $967/yr
• Insurance: −$83
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$325
• Net cashflow: $12

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,534

Max offer price $199,900

Occupancy floor 94%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $49,975
• Closing costs: $5,997
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 11 events

1. 2026-06-13
   status $199,900 Pending 17 DOM
2. 2026-06-10
   days on market $199,900 Active Under Contract 17 DOM
3. 2026-06-09
   days on market $199,900 Active Under Contract 16 DOM
4. 2026-06-08
   days on market $199,900 Active Under Contract 15 DOM
5. 2026-06-07
   days on market $199,900 Active Under Contract 14 DOM
6. 2026-06-05
   statusdays on market $199,900 Active Under Contract 11 DOM
7. 2026-06-02
   days on market $199,900 Active 9 DOM
8. 2026-06-01
   days on market $199,900 Active 8 DOM
9. 2026-05-31
   days on market $199,900 Active 7 DOM
10. 2026-05-30
    days on market $199,900 Active 6 DOM
11. 2026-05-23
    historical $199,900

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NC · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $967 · $81/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,639 · $137/mo
• Expected delta: +$672/yr (+$56/mo · 69.4%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 4/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥103°F today · 18 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 100% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $18,593
• − Mortgage interest: −$11,198
• − Property taxes: −$967
• − Insurance: −$1,000
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,487
• − Management: −$1,487
• − Depreciation: −$5,815
• Taxable loss: −$3,362
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$807
• After-tax cash flow: $949/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Burke County Schools
• NCES district ID: 3700480
• Math proficiency: 43% ▼ -2.00%
• Reading proficiency: 47% ▬ 0.00%
• Median HH income: $38,342
• Composite: 37.51/100
• National rank: #4400
• State rank: #89 of 178 in NC

Livability — Gamewell

• Score: 60/100
• State rank: #518
• US rank: #19047

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B+ Employment D Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Burke County · 55,100 people
• Metro: Hickory-Lenoir-Morganton, NC
• Population (ZIP): 55,100
• Household income: $57,713
• Rent vs Own: 27.3% rent · 72.7% own
• Severe rent burden: 1145.0

Population outlook (Burke County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 86,552 people
• By 2030: 84,123 · -2.8%
• By 2040: 78,165 · -9.7%
• By 2050: 71,099 · -17.9%
• By 2075: 56,264 · -35.0%
• By 2100: 44,742 · -48.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (75%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 75% Hispanic / Latino 11% Black 8% Two or more races 5% Asian 3% Native American 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 3%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 2% Italian 2% Serbian 2%
• Foreign-born: 7% · Canada, China
• Languages at home: 87% English-only · Spanish 8% Other Asian/Pacific 1% Arabic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Burke

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+41.2) · D 29.0% · R 70.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: -22.0pp toward R · 2008: -19.2pp · 2024: -41.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+41.2 2020: R+40.1 2016: R+39.4 2012: R+23.6 2008: R+19.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -55.07%
• Current HPI: 362.0732
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Hickory-Lenoir-Morganton, NC
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 26

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NC)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	2	$213B
▸Retail	2	$95B
▸Industrial Conglomerate	1	$38B
▸Metals / Steel	1	$35B
▸Utilities	1	$30B
▸Industrial Machinery	1	$19B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-05-23 Coming Soon $199,900 CANOPYMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid

Property tax history

+2.8%/yr

Latest (2025): $967 · -0.2% YoY. Source: county tax records.