4225 Trexler Rd Trexler Dr · Redwater, TX 75501

$185,000

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 2,040 sqft · Manufactured public records · 33 Days on market

Built 2017 1.00 ac lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +13.1/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +4.6/10.0
• DSCR +3.9/10.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• 1% rule +3.2/10.0
• Rent growth +2.9/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Discover relaxed country living with modern comfort. Located in the much sought after Redwater School District, this beautifully maintained 4-bedroom, 2-bath manufactured home offers 2,176 square feet of living space and is perfectly situated on a full unrestricted acre, providing both charm and endless possibilities. Step inside to an inviting open-concept design, ideal for both everyday living and effortless entertaining. The expansive living room is anchored by a cozy wood-burning fireplace, creating a warm and welcoming atmosphere. The thoughtfully designed kitchen boasts abundant cabinetry, a premium Shark dishwasher, and a spacious pantry—perfectly blending style and functionali

Key facts

• Open-concept design
• Spacious pantry
• Walk-in closets

Tags

• OPEN-CONCEPT DESIGN
• WOOD-BURNING FIREPLACE
• ABUNDANT CABINETRY
• PREMIUM SHARK DISHWASHER
• SPACIOUS PANTRY
• WALK-IN CLOSETS

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $185k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-5 ($-61/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $184k (0.5% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $151k (18.3% below list).
• Recommended offer: $151k (18.3% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 68/100 on livability (#467 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A, crime A-; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Redwater ISD (rural): math 58% / reading 48% proficiency, ranked #123 of 826 in TX (top 15%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Redwater El (math 42% / reading 47%, grade F, #1,155 of 4,322 statewide, top 29%, 313 students, 54% FRL); Redwater Int (math 55% / reading 34%, grade D, #491 of 1,662 statewide, top 31%, 227 students, 62% FRL); Redwater H S (math 77% / reading 67%, grade B+, #95 of 1,632 statewide, top 7%, 339 students, 44% FRL) — zoned schools average 53% FRL vs 36% district-wide (17 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.6%/yr); 326 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 137 units permitted in Bowie County in 2024 (5 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 39% of the median local income ($46k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 33 days — a 3% lower offer ($179k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 27% chance of damaging wind over 30y; major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $151,237 (18.3% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 33 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 18% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.82% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.26%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.12%
• DSCR: 0.99
• GRM: 10.2

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 1.63% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -18.0%
• Equity multiple: 0.37×
• Total profit: $-32,385
• Equity at exit: $27,584

10-year hold

• IRR: -12.9%
• Equity multiple: 0.29×
• Total profit: $-36,932
• Equity at exit: $15,995

Cash invested: $51,800 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 75501

• Home prices YoY: -34.9%
• Rents YoY: 1.6%
• Active inventory: 326
• Price-to-rent: 10.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,512 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$970
• Tax from tax record: −$153 /mo · $1,831/yr
• Insurance: −$77
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$318
• Net cashflow: $-5

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,519

Max offer price $184,100

Occupancy floor 95%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $100	-5% $47	+0% $-5	+5% $-57	+10% $-110
Rent	-10% $-125	-5% $-65	+0% $-5	+5% $55	+10% $114
Rate	-1.0pp $88	-0.5pp $42	base $-5	+0.5pp $-53	+1.0pp $-102

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $46,250
• Closing costs: $5,550
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
11819 W 7th St Texarkana, TX	4.0	3.0	2086	$1,849	$0.89	45d	1	1.05mi

Listing history 5 events

1. 2026-06-02
   days on market $185,000 Active 33 DOM
2. 2026-06-01
   days on market $185,000 Active 32 DOM
3. 2026-05-31
   days on market $185,000 Active 31 DOM
4. 2026-05-30
   days on market $185,000 Active 30 DOM
5. 2026-04-28
   listed $185,000 Active 1711-char remark

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,831 · $153/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,386 · $282/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,554/yr (+$130/mo · 84.9%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 7/10 Severe
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥112°F today · 23 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 27% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $18,148
• − Mortgage interest: −$10,363
• − Property taxes: −$1,831
• − Insurance: −$925
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,452
• − Management: −$1,452
• − Depreciation: −$5,382
• Taxable loss: −$3,256
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$782
• After-tax cash flow: $720/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Redwater ISD
• NCES district ID: 4836750
• Math proficiency: 58% ▼ -4.00%
• Reading proficiency: 48% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $56,454
• Composite: 45.94/100
• National rank: #2542
• State rank: #123 of 826 in TX

Livability — Redwater

• Score: 68/100
• State rank: #467
• US rank: #9379

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A- Employment C+ Housing A Health & safety F User ratings B+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Bowie County · 61,238 people
• Metro: Texarkana, TX-AR
• Population (ZIP): 34,866
• Household income: $45,995
• Rent vs Own: 42.9% rent · 57.1% own
• Severe rent burden: 1289.0

Population outlook (Bowie County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 94,699 people
• By 2030: 94,824 · +0.1%
• By 2040: 94,870 · +0.2%
• By 2050: 93,686 · -1.1%
• By 2075: 90,082 · -4.9%
• By 2100: 76,579 · -19.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.59)
• Race & ethnicity: White 54% Black 33% Hispanic / Latino 9% Two or more races 5%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 7%
• Common ancestry: Italian 1% Lithuanian 1% Portuguese 1%
• Foreign-born: 5% · Canada
• Languages at home: 92% English-only · Spanish 6% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Bowie

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+48.7) · D 25.3% · R 74.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -10.8pp toward R · 2008: -37.9pp · 2024: -48.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+48.7 2020: R+42.8 2016: R+46.6 2012: R+41.5 2008: R+37.9

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -79.14%
• Current HPI: 147.9402
• Rent YoY: ▲ 1.63%
• Metro: Texarkana, TX-AR
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Property tax history

+2.8%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,831 · +10.7% YoY. Source: county tax records.